Been working on some metrics that allow us to stack another performance percentage with the market. It's a layer that actually takes a way from raw resolutions by determining which type of market we are in both short and long term. The data is unique and there is a ton so there is much to work with. I considered a video type series to explain some of this but preparing for turbulence and dark times were a part of that.
I've mentioned before that we were hoping to grab what units we could as it was beginning, over this week, to become apparent that we might see a market downturn with high volatility.
-6 units in one day sure seems to fit that bill.
Once we get a solid month of data here, and the complexion of the market gets a little sharper and more defined, I look to apply this metric perhaps with a rating system.
Basically, I always say do your own work and then compare any plays you have to he Fund. It might take you on or pull you off one you weren't sure about. Look at the Fund plays, they might give ideas. The plays track the market well and, although volatile, overall end up ahead of the game in line with expectations.
Using a rating system to determine the type of market we're in may not be predictive, but it might give us some insight into what we are facing. It's good to have a roadmap so that when the bullets start flying, we aren't lost.
This is tricky business, capping the markets, and I'm not even sure where all this will go. Again it's tough to resolve a predictive type market rating buy itself, it may give some insight into whether or not to go over or under weight at certain times. This will lead to jiggling bet sizes, and because of that could cost money, but perhaps we can overcome that cost with precision.
In terms of insight, we certainly had some with the metrics this week. One trick now, after determining a direction, will be to try to determine whether we're more likely to see the volatility and sharp move or a slower, more drag out, type of market.
I'm going to read this tomorrow, and see if I can expand.