Swing States Trends 10/4/24-10/11/24

[WillyBoy]

Bearing in mind the margin of error from all the polls averaged, which can range from 1% to 4%, this remains too close to call. Harris doesn’t seem to be screwing up, while Trump – for some reason – is spending too much time in states he really can’t win. It’s been clear since the debate, if he concentrates on PA and WI, he does move the needle - but California and other solid blue states?

[ByeShea]

this remains too close to call. Harris doesn’t seem to be screwing up, while Trump – for some reason – is spending too much time in states he really can’t win.

Right. Kamala's a regular juggernaut, never a wrong move.

Back the fukkin' truck up and put it all on her, bro. You know you want to.

[WillyBoy]

Right. Kamala's a regular juggernaut, never a wrong move.

Back the fukkin' truck up and put it all on her, bro. You know you want to.

If English is your second language your comment might be excusable; if not, maybe get some help reading. You’re likely better off name-calling like your schoolyard pals.

[WillyBoy]

For all the other number challenged, “read” that while Trump was touring the west coast, he left PA - where he’d been pounding Harris all week, and today she got a bounce.

[Hareeba!]

Only fools pay attention to polling.

Look at genuine voting results.

Such a significant D overperformance v polls since 2020 and particularly since the Dobs decision.

And with so many first time young voters coming aboard Trump is toast.

[jt315]

Only fools pay attention to polling.

Look at genuine voting results.

Such a significant D overperformance v polls since 2020 and particularly since the Dobs decision.

And with so many first time young voters coming aboard Trump is toast.

But you did pay attention to the odds at Betfair when Harris was favored . So do you not pay attention to them too or only when Harris is favored ?

The community organizer pandering for the young black male vote . Yeah he’s not a little worried .

Her honeymoon lasted a little longer than expected but ended when she was forced to introduce herself to America.

[jt315]

How it started

The Republican National Committee has filed a lawsuit against Detroit, alleging that city officials haven't hired enough Republican election inspectors, also known as poll workers.


How it ended

RNC has secured a settlement from the city of Detroit, which includes hiring more Republican poll workers ahead of next month’s presidential election


Detroit , Philly , Fulton County etc . Funny how all this shady sh*t happens in Dem strongholds.

[Hareeba!]

Only fools pay attention to polling.

Look at genuine voting results.

Such a significant D overperformance v polls since 2020 and particularly since the Dobs decision.

And with so many first time young voters coming aboard Trump is toast.

This! 100%

https://x.com/i/status/1845997433580396747

https://x.com/i/status/1845880852112462047

[jt315]

This! 100%

https://x.com/i/status/1845997433580396747

https://x.com/i/status/1845880852112462047

No bigger sign that she is winning than agreeing to do a FOX interview 3 weeks before the election .

[WillyBoy]

Harris has been losing ground in polls everywhere the past few days. I can see a couple of blue wall states flipping to Trump by next week.

[Hareeba!]

Harris has been losing ground in polls everywhere the past few days. I can see a couple of blue wall states flipping to Trump by next week.

lol
you're still falling for all those fake polls

[jt315]

lol
you're still falling for all those fake polls

How is the Betfair market looking nowadays ? You know the one you mentioned a while back when Harris was favored .

[WillyBoy]

How is the Betfair market looking nowadays ? You know the one you mentioned a while back when Harris was favored .

You got the wrong guy, I'm afraid. I don't even know what Betfair is.

[WillyBoy]

lol
you're still falling for all those fake polls

Used to write marketing software and relied on a number of pollsters to do so. Accuracy is their first priority, it’s what they sell. It’s why the Trump campaign hired Rasmussen. Besides, only flat-earthers call it “fake”.

[ByeShea]

lol
you're still falling for all those fake polls

Just because you fall for fake news doesn't mean other people can't fall for fake polls.

[WillyBoy]

Harris’s POLL numbers in the blue wall states (except in PA) are collapsing faster than Gaza hospitals. Her post-debate bounce has flat-out disappeared, and I can’t see her FOX News interview helping. Barring any major flubs by Trump or Vance, the trends now favors their chances. They’re only weakening in GA, which they should win (one way or another), and if they work PA a bit more, they can pull it off.

[ByeShea]

I'd say this is more important than a poll...

WISCONSIN:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">�� NEW: Wisconsin is now only using ~78 ballot drop boxes after previously using over 500 in the 2020 election (AP)</p>&mdash; Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846949662172864614?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 17, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[WillyBoy]

If the last few days of POLLING are any indicator, the past week has been a disaster for Harris. She’s down in every blue wall state, including PA, but still clings to tiny leads. Trump got a big bounce in GA, which settled down sunbelt jitters.

[ByeShea]

At this point - just look at what people are doing, it's more telling than the polls. A brand new ad featuring a Democratic senator in PA aligning himself with Trump ... nobody knows the state more than Casey.

PENNSYLVANIA:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bob Casey thinks Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.<br><br>That’s the only way to explain Casey’s new ad, which ALIGNS HIM WITH TRUMP.<br><br>He bucks Biden by name, and does not mention Kamala Harris at all.<br><br>An endangered Dem is RUNNING AWAY FROM HARRIS AND WITH TRUMP.<br><br>Just huge. <a href="https://t.co/AZfcVeM02E">pic.twitter.com/AZfcVeM02E</a></p>&mdash; Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) <a href="https://twitter.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1847285213681832131?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 18, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Hareeba!]

Scam Alert: Trump doesn’t want you to see this!

A single entity is manipulating Polymarket by pouring $30 million into it to create the illusion that Trump is likely to win. Trump always cheats, even on this!

Kamala Harris and Trump are closely matched in the polls. However, in a prominent betting market, the odds have shifted significantly in Trump's favour, prompting inquiries about a recent surge in bets and the individuals behind them.

In the past two weeks, Trump’s odds of winning the November election on Polymarket have jumped, with bettors giving him a 60% chance on Friday compared to Harris's 40%. The candidates were tied at the beginning of October.

However, this surge may be an illusion created by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively invested around $30 million in crypto bets on Trump’s victory.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts. Amateurs!

Polymarket is looking into the activity in its presidential-election markets with help from external experts, according to a source familiar with the situation. However, don’t anticipate significant results, as Peter Thiel is one of the owners.

It's crucial to recognize that a group of South African oligarchs is backing JD Vance and Trump in an attempt to indirectly gain power in the United States by elevating them to leadership. Among these oligarchs, Peter Thiel is a co-owner of Polymarket, while Musk owns X.

Trump is a habitual cheater who knows that losing this election could expose him and his associates to accountability for their actions. As a result, he and the unscrupulous billionaires supporting him are ready to do anything to win.

We all know that Trump lies every time he speaks, that his policies are harmful, his track record poor, and that he is a convicted felon and anti-democratic. He also surrounds himself with traitors and criminals. Now, it seems he may also be manipulating betting markets.

So there you are resident MAGAts!

You've been conned again

[jt315]

Scam Alert: Trump doesn’t want you to see this!

A single entity is manipulating Polymarket by pouring $30 million into it to create the illusion that Trump is likely to win. Trump always cheats, even on this!

Kamala Harris and Trump are closely matched in the polls. However, in a prominent betting market, the odds have shifted significantly in Trump's favour, prompting inquiries about a recent surge in bets and the individuals behind them.

In the past two weeks, Trump’s odds of winning the November election on Polymarket have jumped, with bettors giving him a 60% chance on Friday compared to Harris's 40%. The candidates were tied at the beginning of October.

However, this surge may be an illusion created by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively invested around $30 million in crypto bets on Trump’s victory.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts. Amateurs!

Polymarket is looking into the activity in its presidential-election markets with help from external experts, according to a source familiar with the situation. However, don’t anticipate significant results, as Peter Thiel is one of the owners.

It's crucial to recognize that a group of South African oligarchs is backing JD Vance and Trump in an attempt to indirectly gain power in the United States by elevating them to leadership. Among these oligarchs, Peter Thiel is a co-owner of Polymarket, while Musk owns X.

Trump is a habitual cheater who knows that losing this election could expose him and his associates to accountability for their actions. As a result, he and the unscrupulous billionaires supporting him are ready to do anything to win.

We all know that Trump lies every time he speaks, that his policies are harmful, his track record poor, and that he is a convicted felon and anti-democratic. He also surrounds himself with traitors and criminals. Now, it seems he may also be manipulating betting markets.

So there you are resident MAGAts!

You've been conned again

Here’s another Scam Alert Dipshit


Your trap has been closed pretty tight since you last mentioned their odds .


Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted on its temperature gauge Thursday morning that Trump would likely win

[WillyBoy]

A bad week for Harris so far, with Trump’s polling average putting him slightly ahead in PA – which Harris absolutely needs. And I still have, today, Trump winning the electoral college 281 to 256. That said, given the sub-one percent leads of both candidates, and the potential “polling error” margins baked into all poll results, I can’t see anyone running away with it based on the latest averaged polls.

[jt315]

A bad week for Harris so far, with Trump’s polling average putting him slightly ahead in PA – which Harris absolutely needs. And I still have, today, Trump winning the electoral college 281 to 256. That said, given the sub-one percent leads of both candidates, and the potential “polling error” margins baked into all poll results, I can’t see anyone running away with it based on the latest averaged polls.

Given the direction the polling errors have gone the last two elections , I wouldn’t be too comfortable if I were her .

[Itsamazing777]

Harris plummeting as expected...

[WillyBoy]

Trump has firmed his lead in PA by 0.2%, while Harris flubbed her chance at the CNN townhall to make up lost ground. My forecast, as of today, stands at Trump 281 to Harris 257. (I think Jack Smith better update his resume.)

[Hareeba!]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNV40NSekWs&ab_channel=MeidasTouch

[DwightShrute]

Kamala is going down faster than .... well ... faster than Kamala going down on Willie Brown

[mcaulay777]

No political view in this just watching 1 month ago i had Harris winning Nevada Arizona,Michigan and Pennsylvania Wisconsin.Trump Georgia Ohio and North Carolina.Today i think Trump may win Penn and Arizona.That would be my bets.