Oh My! I just made a Presidential Election Model

[WillyBoy]

Well, not exactly. Aside from a ‘nowcast’ (ie. if the election were held today, as opposed to a ‘forecast’, which guesses what happens on 11/5) – this is about the current trends in Swing State polling. Which, if you’ve been paying attention - the Swing States listed below are the trump cards in this game – pun intended.

Every Friday I’ll be posting a week’s worth of averaged raw state polls, gleaned from RCP, 538, and Silver Bulletin, which shows how the candidates are trending. I’m not too picky about the polls I include, mainly because I’m not smart (or obsessed) enough to do so, but I do toss outliers from the calculation when they produce more than a 5% variation from the norm.

The ‘nowcast’ I include is based on those states and their EVs which I consider ‘in the bag’ (ITB) for both candidates – 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump – along with the Swing States’ EVs they’re currently winning. States ITB are pretty much agreed to by all poll-forecasters, and “270 TO WIN’S” electoral map is probably the best.

https://www.270towin.com/

Clearly, the race is too close to call, and just about all leads shown below are within every pollster’s margin of error – making the game a tossup.

[BriGuy]

The problem Harris is facing is that in the previous 2 elections, Trump outperformed the polls by a margin of roughly 3% to 5% in most states. If that happens here, Trump is looking at 300+ electoral votes easily.

Now, of course, it is a small sample size.... and pollsters tend not to divulge their methodology so who knows if they are adjusting for the "Trump factor" we have seen in the past. But we do know Harris is about 8 points behind where Biden was at the same time in 2020, and he certainly didn't win by all that much.

I guess we'll find out in November.

[WillyBoy]

The problem Harris is facing is that in the previous 2 elections, Trump outperformed the polls by a margin of roughly 3% to 5% in most states. If that happens here, Trump is looking at 300+ electoral votes easily.

Now, of course, it is a small sample size.... and pollsters tend not to divulge their methodology so who knows if they are adjusting for the "Trump factor" we have seen in the past. But we do know Harris is about 8 points behind where Biden was at the same time in 2020, and he certainly didn't win by all that much.

I guess we'll find out in November.

Since 2016, when the pollsters really had it wrong, fixing their methodology has been their highest priority. Bear in mind they do this for a living, and accuracy is all they have to sell – and they improved in 2020, and pretty much nailed the last mid-terms in 2022. It’s a long time until 11/5, but if the polls remain as they are now, it would take a replay of 2016 – a surge in the unpolled - for Trump to hit 300.

[WillyBoy]

Trump’s poll numbers are stagnating in North Caroline, where his lead is a paltry 0.4%, and Georgia 0.8% (where the Republican fix may be in, but he needs a convincing win for credibility’s sake). He remains down in Pennsylvania by 1.6%, a state he must deny to Harris (the blue wall states are her backbone). Securing the sunbelt states should be Trump’s priority, but he needs to spend more time and resources in Pennsylvania to avoid another 2020.

[WillyBoy]

Two good polling days for Trump, but Harris’s numbers don’t drop, meaning “undecideds” are now moving to the right. Tuesday’s VP debate could boost either side, and I like Vance’s chances – provided he can avoid some predictable jabs by Walz – and avoid like the plague dog-eating Haitian references.

[WillyBoy]

The polls are beginning to stagnate in the swing states, although nationally Harris is ticking upward. Either Vance needs to shake things up today or a Biden blunder in the Middle East, is what’s needed to move the needle.

[Itsamazing777]

Report Post
Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in five of the seven key swing states which will prove vital in determining who wins the election, according to a poll.

A survey of likely voters in battleground states from AtlasIntel found that Trump is ahead in Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1).

AtlasIntel said the former president also has a "narrow" advantage in the toss-up states of Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49) and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). Harris is leading in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).

AtlasIntel was named the most accurate polling group of the 2020 presidential election by 538. Trump would win the 2024 race with 290 Electoral College votes if the Republican wins all five battleground states he currently leads in their polling, with Harris on 248.

[WillyBoy]

If AtlasIntel were the only pollster working, I wouldn’t have to average, but they’re not. I include their numbers in my averaging because they are one of the best, but there are a number of other, highly respected pollsters, all striving for accuracy – and I just can’t ignore them.

[WillyBoy]

Trump should get a small bounce in the polls following the VP debate, where Vance sounded more natural than Walz, and avoided any of the expected pitfalls. It was a very gentlemanly debate, that put a national polish on Vance, who’d been a MSM whipping boy since Trump picked him. Walz, on the other hand, looked uncomfortable; his responses more like stump speech bits and pieces. This should add up to a full percentage point for Trump in the polls we may see as soon as Friday.

[Art Vandelay]

Trump should get a small bounce in the polls following the VP debate, where Vance sounded more natural than Walz, and avoided any of the expected pitfalls. It was a very gentlemanly debate, that put a national polish on Vance, who’d been a MSM whipping boy since Trump picked him. Walz, on the other hand, looked uncomfortable; his responses more like stump speech bits and pieces. This should add up to a full percentage point for Trump in the polls we may see as soon as Friday.

Hopefully! Walz is a first class putz that shouldn't be anywhere near the White House - Still can't believe she took him over Shapiro who would definitely help her win PA. Scary that Walz, if Kammy gets thru, could be one "security lapse", from the Presidency...

[Thefix13]

Polls, polls, polls. Always hear about polls and what they predict but I've still yet to meet a single person that has ever taken said polls.

[WillyBoy]

Polls, polls, polls. Always hear about polls and what they predict but I've still yet to meet a single person that has ever taken said polls.

If you rely on a landline instead of a cell, that might explain it.

[WillyBoy]

Hopefully! Walz is a first class putz that shouldn't be anywhere near the White House - Still can't believe she took him over Shapiro who would definitely help her win PA. Scary that Walz, if Kammy gets thru, could be one "security lapse", from the Presidency...

I agree. Shapiro was the far better choice, given that winning Pennsylvania is Harris’s only real path to the White House, and who would have given a far better performance in the VP debate. As it is, PA is up for grabs, despite Harris’s tiny lead.

[hawkwind]

Sounds like sniffed to much of the GLUE while making your model

[RudyRuetigger]

dems will steal election

i have kamala 10 to 1

[WillyBoy]

Sounds like sniffed to much of the GLUE while making your model

There's no such thing/

[JohnGalt2341]

dems will steal election

i have kamala 10 to 1

REALLY????? These are the odds you got?? +1000??

[slewfan]

Just think, if Harris wins the election. We will have another 4 years of two ''totally incompetent'' leaders for America. Will America even survive this nightmare.?.

[homie1975]

The problem Harris is facing is that in the previous 2 elections, Trump outperformed the polls by a margin of roughly 3% to 5% in most states. If that happens here, Trump is looking at 300+ electoral votes easily.

Now, of course, it is a small sample size.... and pollsters tend not to divulge their methodology so who knows if they are adjusting for the "Trump factor" we have seen in the past. But we do know Harris is about 8 points behind where Biden was at the same time in 2020, and he certainly didn't win by all that much.

I guess we'll find out in November.

unlike 2016 and 2020, people are no longer afraid to admit they are voting for trump.

and he has lost many baby boomers to death, who tend to vote Red

the blue team has picked up a ton in the younger generation who are between 18 and 29 but they do not pick up the phone so they are not logged.

trump bump in 16 and 20 is very likely gone now.

[homie1975]

dems will steal election

i have kamala 10 to 1

the stealing is going on by Red team in NC and GA

you are back to your old self.

sad but true.

[WillyBoy]

REALLY????? These are the odds you got?? +1000??

He has to be kidding.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

it’s going to be close, but Vance’s performance in the VP debate, managed a 1.1% bump in Trump’s chances at Polymarket, where Harris and Trump are now tied at 48%.

[jt315]

unlike 2016 and 2020, people are no longer afraid to admit they are voting for trump.

and he has lost many baby boomers to death, who tend to vote Red

the blue team has picked up a ton in the younger generation who are between 18 and 29 but they do not pick up the phone so they are not logged.

trump bump in 16 and 20 is very likely gone now.

Lol ! A 2 point national lead for a Dem is serious trouble in the electoral college world . She’s already bleeding Hispanic support and anything in the high teens for black support (which polls are showing ) is another big problem .

PS . Your JD Vance thread is calling for you .

[veriableodds]

HEY KAMALA