2020 presidential election math

[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm looking at presidential 2020 odds and thinking of making big bet but want to mostly ask one question of forum people here...... hoping it doesn't get too political and that's not my intent.

betting markets i see are roughly 50/50 D vs. R. maybe very slight D lean... anyway, see oddschecker.com if you want to verify.

my one question is this: do you think donald trump can get people to vote for him who voted democratic or didn't vote in 2016? i guess they could have gone 3rd party as well...........

my betting math is: i think many more people will vote democratic (either didn't vote or will switch from R). so i think trump needs more people to vote for him. the same people as last time with some attrition (even minor) won't be enough

do people think with strong economy and tariffs on china (which i think alot of people like) that he can get new votes? i.e. maybe people who didn't think he'd actually do XXXXX that he promised. and they like it.

thx in advance .... i dislike trump but i want to make a large bet.

[vitterd]

Trump has lost independents and white married suburban women. Plus he won’t have the luxury of running against Hillary, who he lost to by 3 million votes.

He’s an under dog at last check and the investigations are only gonna get worse for him.

If he makes the ballot in 2020....he won’t win.

[jts1207]

Trump has lost independents and white married suburban women. Plus he won’t have the luxury of running against Hillary, who he lost to by 3 million votes.

He’s an under dog at last check and the investigations are only gonna get worse for him.

If he makes the ballot in 2020....he won’t win.

Yes sir. White males are all that will vote for Trump. You've got him this time.

[Champ2399]

There is a path to victory in 2020 for Trump. After the midterms, abandon evangelicals (and most of the losing GOP) and work with Democrats to put popular policies in effect (such as lowering the cost of healthcare, DACA / immigration deals, end the tariffs, ban LGBT discrimination, support Planned Parenthood, pivot on climate change / environment policies -- all of these are >50% supported). Make a deal with Dems where they won't impeach if he signs off on their policies.

The one thing Trump loves is WINNING and making himself look good. If he does the above and wants to take credit in a re-election bid, I think people would go for it and he'd improve his legacy.

[pokerdevil]

Whatever you do, don't tie up your funds for 2+ years when (a) the book could go out of business and (b) you could be earning interest in the meantime.

Keep an eye on the odds, and if you insist on jumping in now, do it at a site like PredictIt where you can sell your bet back at any time.

[Snowball]

Don't expect the Russia Investigation to be ongoing during the 2020 campaign. Trump would either shut it down
and let them try to impeach or Mueller may close it by then, his work finished. Either way, your bet loses value
because if Trump is impeached for basically nothing, Republicans and some independents will be motivated to vote for
the Republican. If the investigation is closed, Trump has more power to act and may become more likeable.
It's also actually bad for Democrats if they win House, even worse if they win both House and Senate because
most Americans don't like one party controllling all three branches. A Democrat congress may make Trump more attractive as as he won't be pressured to tow the GOP party line.

Your betting value is on individual Democrat candidates, not the big lay. Skip Warren and Harris. They won't win. Look at Bloomberg, Gore, Kerry, Cuomo etc. Bernie and Biden are probably too old. Let's be realistic.
Heck, Bloomberg is too old also, but he's got a lot of money to spend.
Perhaps with Trump's age also advanced, it won't be seen as ridiculous for even Bernie.
so many dinosaurs.

[vitterd]

Yes sir. White males are all that will vote for Trump. You've got him this time.

Even older people he’s lost support with. It’s incredible how many groups that he’s lost support.

So many people are leaving or not identifying as republicans that his approval is high there but that’s it.

He’s finished. Losing to 3 million to Clinton and he’s even less popular now. He will win the dumb redneck states but those swing states are all going back to blue.

[themike78]

Even older people he’s lost support with. It’s incredible how many groups that he’s lost support.

So many people are leaving or not identifying as republicans that his approval is high there but that’s it.

He’s finished. Losing to 3 million to Clinton and he’s even less popular now. He will win the dumb redneck states but those swing states are all going back to blue.

You believe everything the media tells you. They make it sound like Trump Is unpopular and losing support. He Is not. The media won't talk about the millions of people that love him. I hardly ever hear people bashing Trump when I am out in public. Even the few black people I know like him. The media is full of sht.

[jts1207]

You believe everything the media tells you. They make it sound like Trump Is unpopular and losing support. He Is not. The media won't talk about the millions of people that love him. I hardly ever hear people bashing Trump when I am out in public. Even the few black people I know like him. The media is full of sht.

Libs don't understand reason or logic.

[JIBBBY]

East math - America doing great, the people have money in their pockets.. We are not a war.. Ironing out better Trade deals.. Trump doing the job...

Dems have no message and they have no strong candidate to test Trump.. Easy win in 2020...

[vitterd]

You believe everything the media tells you. They make it sound like Trump Is unpopular and losing support. He Is not. The media won't talk about the millions of people that love him. I hardly ever hear people bashing Trump when I am out in public. Even the few black people I know like him. The media is full of sht.

He only has the diehard low IQ’ers left. While I agree there are a few million of them....not enough this time. It gets worse for him every single day. He’s getting worse mentally also. The other day he said to a storm victim “ at least you got a nice boat out of it”. I mean, he’s a functioning retard at this point.

[vitterd]

Libs don't understand reason or logic.

Says the guy who got beat with truthful links all day. Lol. Tough day for you kiddo.

[jts1207]

Says the guy who got beat with truthful links all day. Lol. Tough day for you kiddo.

Truthful links? Hardly. Enjoy the confirmation and try not to cry yourself to sleep like election night. Not your kiddo either guy.

[jts1207]

He only has the diehard low IQ’ers left. While I agree there are a few million of them....not enough this time. It gets worse for him every single day. He’s getting worse mentally also. The other day he said to a storm victim “ at least you got a nice boat out of it”. I mean, he’s a functioning retard at this point.

You're that stupid aren't you? Yes he was serious about the boat lol.

[brooks85]

Trump has lost independents and white married suburban women. Plus he won’t have the luxury of running against Hillary, who he lost to by 3 million votes.

He’s an under dog at last check and the investigations are only gonna get worse for him.

If he makes the ballot in 2020....he won’t win.

always enjoy reading this idiot's view on reality. This is what makes markets. Low IQers like vitter and d2bets who can never get anything right.

He only has the diehard low IQ’ers left. While I agree there are a few million of them....not enough this time. It gets worse for him every single day. He’s getting worse mentally also. The other day he said to a storm victim “ at least you got a nice boat out of it”. I mean, he’s a functioning retard at this point.

lol and again, more proof vitter copies me. That is a trend you'll notice over the decade when low IQers go up against me. I expose them as the children they are and their only recourse is to do what children do when they lose; copy.

[vitterd]

You're that stupid aren't you? Yes he was serious about the boat lol.

It’s a horrific inappropriate attempt at humor. The guy just doesn’t get it at all. How dumb can he be to say that? You have to be retarded to say it.

[vitterd]

always enjoy reading this idiot's view on reality. This is what makes markets. Low IQers like vitter and d2bets who can never get anything right.






lol and again, more proof vitter copies me. That is a trend you'll notice over the decade when low IQers go up against me. I expose them as the children they are and their only recourse is to do what children do when they lose; copy.

How did you sneak online? Parents aren’t watching again. Hope therapy is helping you but it doesn’t seem so.

[jts1207]

It’s a horrific inappropriate attempt at humor. The guy just doesn’t get it at all. How dumb can he be to say that? You have to be retarded to say it.

Grow up. Seriously.

[vitterd]

Grow up. Seriously.

Great response.

Your president is an absolute dope and has mental problems. Seriously.

[brooks85]

How did you sneak online? Parents aren’t watching again. Hope therapy is helping you but it doesn’t seem so.

you're mixing us up again. Are you hoping one day I'll be the loser who had to lie about going to bed then sneak up past his parents?

Too bad post history shows that was you. That happened and it will never go away lol

[jts1207]

Great response.

Your president is an absolute dope and has mental problems. Seriously.

Our president. It was a joke to lighten the mood obviously. You've got TDS bad.

[vitterd]

you're mixing us up again. Are you hoping one day I'll be the loser who had to lie about going to bed then sneak up past his parents?

Too bad post history shows that was you. That happened and it will never go away lol

You’re making things up that never happened. Stick to getting buried in the stock thread.

Therapy doesn’t work for everyone obviously. Your poor parents.

[jts1207]

you're mixing us up again. Are you hoping one day I'll be the loser who had to lie about going to bed then sneak up past his parents?

Too bad post history shows that was you. That happened and it will never go away lol

Wow. Starting to add up now.

[vitterd]

Our president. It was a joke to lighten the mood obviously. You've got TDS bad.

It was terrible and typical of his bad timing. He’s yours....I can’t claim that guy.

[vitterd]

Wow. Starting to add up now.

Lmao. Do you know who brooks is? He lost a bet to me and welched. He left the poly forum after I buried him and now sneak posts. Please hitch your wagon to him.

He is a known liar....ask around

[VeggieDog]

i'm looking at presidential 2020 odds and thinking of making big bet but want to mostly ask one question of forum people here...... hoping it doesn't get too political and that's not my intent.

LOL. Are you new here?

[TheGoldenGoose]

Why would anybody want to tie up workable funds on a futures wager over two years away?

[jts1207]

Why would anybody want to tie up workable funds on a futures wager over two years away?

I can't handle futures over a month let alone years

[pokerpro44]

trump and it wont even be close.

[turbobets]

Too early to say, the Dem's have no electable candidates or a platform yet. If they give in to to the radical left they lose for sure. Don't forget Trump got a lot of votes from organized labor who usually vote Democratic. If the economy continues to do well he keeps those Union votes and possibly adds more. I wouldn't bet until after our midterm elections. If there is no blue wave during the midterms and the polls are wrong again then Trump takes 2020 unless the Dem's find another Obama.

[MinnesotaFats]

Remember that Dems have won the popular vote in 4 of the last 5 elections

That is primarily because of CA and NY

The question you need to ask is can Trump win 2 of the following: WI, OH, PA, FL

The more screwball or minority candidate the Dem put out there from NY or CA the more likely Trump carries 2 if not all 4 of those states.

If the Dem run a moderate midwestern white Male or Texas candidate (even latino) then no, he cannot win, despite the economy...which is a shame.

[JIBBBY]

Remember that Dems have won the popular vote in 4 of the last 5 elections

That is primarily because of CA and NY

The question you need to ask is can Trump win 2 of the following: WI, OH, PA, FL

The more screwball or minority candidate the Dem put out there from NY or CA the more likely Trump carries 2 if not all 4 of those states.

If the Dem run a moderate midwestern white Male or Texas candidate (even latino) then no, he cannot win, despite the economy...which is a shame.

Luckily all the millions of popular illegal votes coming in only come from sanctuary States like California and NY mostly. I love the electoral college voting system we have here in America.. Gives all States a voice no matter how small you are...

Our founding fathers were smart to implement that!!! Just because you stack one or two States full of libs and illegals you can't own our USA elections. Brilliant!!! Love the Constitution!!!

IN GOD WE TRUST!!! He had his HAND in that...Trust me... Insight was incredible with our Constitution and the way it was set up back in the day... Just brilliant!!!

[vitterd]

Luckily all the millions of popular illegal votes coming in only come from sanctuary States like California and NY mostly. I love the electoral college voting system we have here in America.. Gives all States a voice no matter how small you are...

Our founding fathers were smart to implement that!!! Just because you stack one or two States full of libs and illegals you can't own our USA elections. Brilliant!!! Love the Constitution!!!

IN GOD WE TRUST!!! He had his HAND in that...Trust me... Insight was incredible with our Constitution and the way it was set up back in the day... Just brilliant!!!

Actually it’s not so brilliant. First of all there is zero evidence of voter fraud. Trump made that up. Now the election is basically decided by Florida and Ohio....so it’s decided by a few states anyway. Just go to the popular vote like trump say he wanted.

[brooks85]

Lmao. Do you know who brooks is? He lost a bet to me and welched. He left the poly forum after I buried him and now sneak posts. Please hitch your wagon to him.

He is a known liar....ask around

lol again vitter desperately trying to lie and hide the truth. Too bad post history shows you are the welch just like your brother which is why YOU ran from the thread for weeks at a time. Fact. Told you day 1 your own posts would ruin you.

[vitterd]

lol again vitter desperately trying to lie and hide the truth. Too bad post history shows you are the welch just like your brother which is why YOU ran from the thread for weeks at a time. Fact. Told you day 1 your own posts would ruin you.

Lies. You’re bulk posting today before your parents wake up. So obvious you’re not allowed on the Internet.

You welched and should honor your lost bet to me. Get lost 9/11 truther.