I am lost with Prez. odds as of 2018.

Sam Odom · 06-12-18, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

I know the answer is simply yet my brain is so confused...

RonPaul2008 · 06-12-18, 08:16 AM

If they don't offer both sides of the line then the odds are pretty meaningless.

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

I simply have not be able to clarify these murky odds on the 2020 election.

What member can explain how any...
#1. Republican [including Trump] can be +110 to be elected in 2020...yet,
#2. Mr. Trump is -270 to be the Repub nominee for that same 2020 election.
#3. Mr. Trump is also a +115 to be elected in 2020, on Sunday, Nov. 10.
#4. [any 3rd party winner--no action] Republican wins on Sunday, Nov. 10, +104

And finally..
#5. Donald Trump is president on Weds. 12:01AM, 1/1/20, -380
#6. Donald Trump is president on Weds. 12:01AM, 1/20/21-195

The prob: How can any Repub be favored #1, yet DT, is a resounding fav to be the candidate #2?

#3. DT, is +110 to be elected in 2020, yet look at those sky-high odds on DT being Prez on 1/1/20? [-380]

Have our Books been plotting a conspiracy to hire another Oswald soon after the election?

Any member who can clear these odds up for the coming election, to make good crispy sense, deserves some points/

* The big question: How can DT be -380 a month after his odds were +110?

** The official election of 2020 is on Tuesday, Nov., 3rd, 2020.

I know the answer is simply yet my brain is so confused I am not seeing the "simple?"

MinnesotaFats · 06-12-18, 08:18 AM

They are looking at the Jesse Ventura model in MN.

He ran as outsider, won against all odds, was villianized by media, accomplished everything on his agenda, was pretty popular at the end and walked away on top.

People think Trump may get his 2nd scotus pick, finalize NK deal, undo Obama exec orders, redo NAFTA and reduce deficits and debt and walk away claiming a win- that he set the template for the modern president to follow as po rior leaders followed a Nixonian model and prior to that a FDR/ Wilson model and prior to that a Andrew Johnson/ US Grant model.

It's about legacy....also Melania may have a say in this

ABEHONEST · 06-12-18, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

The joker again. You're still #1., til the day you confess your promotion sin.

ABEHONEST · 06-12-18, 10:19 AM

Not saloon worthy, but SBR is getting well known for catering to butt-kissers?
Sam for one and who are the others? JJ? Yep, sorry JJ but you do a lot of saloon worthy threads yet they lie in the more active PT. Not that tough-guy JJ kisses butts, no, but he does get a bit too much favoritism.

Who moderates this nonsense and why these decisions?
Now, no, I could care less if JJ and Sam get catered to, as long as WE ALL get some catering.

No double-standards are acceptable on SBR. Remember?

HockeyRocks · 06-12-18, 05:50 PM

Abe, doesn't look like many give a fuk about your thread...

fried cheese · 06-12-18, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

I simply have not be able to clarify these murky odds on the 2020 election.

What member can explain how any...
#1. Republican [including Trump] can be +110 to be elected in 2020...yet,
#2. Mr. Trump is -270 to be the Repub nominee for that same 2020 election.
#3. Mr. Trump is also a +115 to be elected in 2020, on Sunday, Nov. 10.
#4. [any 3rd party winner--no action] Republican wins on Sunday, Nov. 10, +104

And finally..
#5. Donald Trump is president on Weds. 12:01AM, 1/1/20, -380
#6. Donald Trump is president on Weds. 12:01AM, 1/20/21-195

The prob: How can any Repub be favored #1, yet DT, is a resounding fav to be the candidate #2?

#3. DT, is +110 to be elected in 2020, yet look at those sky-high odds on DT being Prez on 1/1/20? [-380]

Have our Books been plotting a conspiracy to hire another Oswald soon after the election?

Any member who can clear these odds up for the coming election, to make good crispy sense, deserves some points/

* The big question: How can DT be -380 a month after his odds were +110?

** The official election of 2020 is on Tuesday, Nov., 3rd, 2020.

I know the answer is simply yet my brain is so confused I am not seeing the "simple?"

1/1/20 is before 11/3/20 for the -380 odds and the next pres wont take office until 1/20/21 if trump loses the election. these are odds that he will be kicked out of office before the next term.

ABEHONEST · 06-12-18, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by fried cheese

1/1/20 is before 11/3/20 for the -380 odds and the next pres wont take office until 1/20/21 if trump loses the election. these are odds that he will be kicked out of office before the next term.

If that's the case, we should all mortgage our houses and put in all on DT at that +110.

ABEHONEST · 06-12-18, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by HockeyRocks

Abe, doesn't look like many give a fuk about your thread...

Yes, I know hockyguy, but I have the fix-recipe now.

fried cheese · 06-12-18, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

If that's the case, we should all mortgage our houses and put in all on DT at that +110.

are you going to use bitcoin to deposit your mortgage?

ABEHONEST · 06-12-18, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by fried cheese

are you going to use bitcoin to deposit your mortgage?

No way, and sounds like you have some Bitcoin history of me & Bit? Are you a future DT wagerer?

A4K · 06-12-18, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by HockeyRocks

Abe, doesn't look like many give a fuk about your thread...

Bingo! All this clown does is suck Trump off in 90% of his threads.

ABEHONEST · 06-13-18, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by A4K

Bingo! All this clown does is suck Trump off in 90% of his threads.

A4K, are you one of those uneducated members? You show no different opinion, like many on here, yet you think you have an excuse to spout childish, personal words at another member because you, apparently, believe another side of the coin?
Of course, with little ed and no class shown, we are all dying to hear your opinion and some positive proof, of, whatever that opinion must be?

Back to the much more interesting raccoon story, sitting on the 23rd floor ledge.

ABEHONEST · 06-13-18, 08:17 AM

And for the blind and really dumb, this thread was about possible presidential odds for the next election.

gojetsgomoxies · 06-13-18, 06:19 PM

those last 2 odds have nothing to do directly with 2020 re-election... have to do with resignation, death, impeacment etc, which do affect re-election chances but indirectly.

the other odds seem perhaps inconsistent but not completely crazy. i guess the explanation for the inconsistency could be trump as independent as mentioned......

basically, from what i've seen, democrats are slight favorites to win next presidental election, republican small underdogs. i personally hadn't seen much 3rd party/independent (trump as that or not) consideration but i guess the odds mentioned suggest it's non-trivial

EDIT: i have to think the math through further.......... but the big thing from looking at the odds is that there are lots and lots of possible outcomes to trump

gojetsgomoxies · 06-13-18, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

If that's the case, we should all mortgage our houses and put in all on DT at that +110.

i don't see how that math works?............. what i think the math suggests is that DT has a greater than 50% of chance of being re-elected if he runs again. but there is a material % chance he doesn't run for re-election (voluntary and involuntary reasons) and slight chance he runs as independent.

i hate getting political but trump didn't beat hilary by much. hilary was a HORRIBLE candidate. how's he going to do any better next time? are there people who didn't vote for him that will next time. whereas the opposite would seem to be many people...... some other democrats would have smoked trump really badly in 2016 but the democrats are too stupid/corrupt to nominate them. hypothetical but obama would have destroyed trump (just my opinion)

gojetsgomoxies · 06-13-18, 07:46 PM

i hadn't thought of this specifically when i posted my responses...... but if trump runs independently for some reason, there is no way whatsoever he can win unless there's an independent that takes votes from democrats. an popular independent will just kill the party it splits from (although analysis apparently suggests perot didn't cost older bush the election).

anyway, 3 possible outcomes, T runs and wins/loses, T doesn't run or runs as Indy (i take that as one outcome)..... and if you bet on other things then there are further nodes but they aren't relevent to trump odds.

ABEHONEST · 06-14-18, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i hadn't thought of this specifically when i posted my responses...... but if trump runs independently for some reason, there is no way whatsoever he can win unless there's an independent that takes votes from democrats. an popular independent will just kill the party it splits from (although analysis apparently suggests perot didn't cost older bush the election).

anyway, 3 possible outcomes, T runs and wins/loses, T doesn't run or runs as Indy (i take that as one outcome)..... and if you bet on other things then there are further nodes but they aren't relevent to trump odds.

Good job. I see what that one odd means now thanks to you clarifying it [right]. Trump would have to run as a independent and I did not understand that.

I will go back and look tomorrow, but I don't recall any Dem or party being favored. That +110 on Trump doesn't mean the Dem's are favored on that odds gig. It means, Trump could lose from many different sources. Health, resign, impeachment, killed, or simply get beat.

I'll get back and look at them again.
Thanks for the very first knowledgeable insight to what I was looking for.
* Now, we must wonder why I was sent to the saloon? Someone goofed by jumping the gun or either overlooked the fact of this thread was about political gambling? Duh.

gojetsgomoxies · 06-14-18, 01:43 PM

Abe, i actually just repeated, perhaps in more words, what someone before me had said......... the big thing about the last 2 odds are that they are both either BEFORE the 2020 election or the inauguration (new term for trump?).....

check out oddschecker.com.. they have it pretty consistently as democrat 55%, republican 44%, independent 4%. adds up to 103 or 104%. the excess over 100% is the juice...... i would personally put independent at zero % and even if you think it's non-zero, it's probably not just trump.

i wonder if you can arb sites on this......... non-americans - who are almost universally anti-trump - versus those americans who - bizarrely IMO but who really cares? - love trump and think he's a shoo-in for re-election.

ABEHONEST · 06-14-18, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

Abe, i actually just repeated, perhaps in more words, what someone before me had said......... the big thing about the last 2 odds are that they are both either BEFORE the 2020 election or the inauguration (new term for trump?).....

check out oddschecker.com.. they have it pretty consistently as democrat 55%, republican 44%, independent 4%. adds up to 103 or 104%. the excess over 100% is the juice...... i would personally put independent at zero % and even if you think it's non-zero, it's probably not just trump.

i wonder if you can arb sites on this......... non-americans - who are almost universally anti-trump - versus those americans who - bizarrely IMO but who really cares? - love trump and think he's a shoo-in for re-election.

Thank you. My avatar says it all.

* By the way, Trump is winning as we watch the IG report. How shocking.