Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**stevek173** · 10-11-20, 06:36 AM

She is ready to destroy some hole

**turtledoves** · 10-11-20, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Well, it's impossible to score 23.82 ande 20.87 points so you have to adjust it to a more likely score, right?

Many would just round and in football that would be a mistake because of the nature of scoring in the game. But, in this particular example, lol, rounding works.

First, you literally have a tie game with a Bears "home field" advantage, whether that's in the makeup of your formula or not. Stay with me here. You have literally been driven to it by the info that is out there.

Make no mistake, it's the start of the week and Thursday night, it's by design. The most frequent team score in the NFL over the last 20 years is 20 and it's rising with rising scores. The most frequent margin of victory in that same sample of data is 3. The most frequent Total? Take a guess on the top two.

The market is steering the money.

Anyway, if we round you have Chicago winning 24-21. Those are pretty realistic football scores, a realistic Total, and there's that 3 point margin of victory.

Now if you had a forecast of, say, 11.8 points. Would you just round to 12? How often does a team score 12 points? You might consider a more realistic score of 10, or maybe 13.

A lot of that can depend on how you arrive at the forecast. However you arrived, the numbers aren't surprising.

I always say it takes 4 weeks of data to rally get the ball rolling.

Well, welcome to week 5, when the sharp money comes into play.

do we have to predict team totals? what does the prediction even represent, the most likely outcome? what about ranges of outcomes, is a single prediction or a range more important? maybe there is some correlation or insight to gain from 23.8 vs rounding to 24 regarding probability distribution. maybe it's easier to get a realistic prediction out of the box with totals because unrealistic team totals can combine to a create a realistic combined score.

**turtledoves** · 10-11-20, 07:19 AM

what a waste of time creating these gifs

**stevenash** · 10-11-20, 09:19 AM

I don't think Carolina can score enough points to push the game against the Falcons over the posted 54.

My play is under 54 in the Falcons game.

Plus I think we are going to see a totals correction this week.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 10:34 AM

**stevenash** · 10-11-20, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Tom Petty shows were really, really fun to be at...

Yes they were fun gigs.
Seen his live twice.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 10:41 AM

Would you pick her up?

She’s obviously not going to pick you up, but would you pick her up?

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB NFL ATS Fund has picked up...

453		11-Oct	LV +13 (-105)
475			MIN +7 (-105)

...

The KVB NFL ATS/ML Fund has added up...

471

11-Oct

NYG +7.5 (-110)

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 11:35 AM

The KVB NFL Totals Fund has picked up...

454

11-Oct

LV/KC UNDER 54.5 (-107)

**BrickJames** · 10-11-20, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Would you pick her up?

She’s obviously not going to pick you up, but would you pick her up?

Couple questions, how does she do her makeup? Wipe her ass?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-11-20, 11:58 AM

Went with Texans -6

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-11-20, 11:59 AM

Hope everyone enjoys NFL Sunday
Best sport to watch

**stevek173** · 10-11-20, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Yes they were fun gigs.
Seen his live twice.

Saw him as well.

Good times.

RIP Tom.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Went with Texans -6

#MeToo

Well, -6.5 but #MeToo

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by BrickJames

Couple questions, how does she do her makeup? Wipe her ass?

Maybe she’s good with her toes.

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 12:24 PM

I guess pictures with men with jizz on their faces is Player's Talk material now.

And I mean multiple pictures.

**stevenash** · 10-11-20, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Went with Texans -6

I like that bet, I considered using them but it was just lean.

I'm on the under of that Falcon mess.
So far, so good.

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 12:45 PM

I hope SBR bans me today.

If it happens, then I promise I will never, ever, post at SBR again.

I don't hope to never post again, that's not what I mean.

lol.

Maybe Rogers is gay, he just seems like it in this pic...

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/CheerfulDismalGroundhog' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='404'></iframe>

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 12:51 PM

KVB, don't get banned.

We're so close to 100K posts in here.

When that happens we're gonna party like it's 1999.

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

KVB, don't get banned.

We're so close to 100K posts in here.

When that happens we're gonna party like it's 1999.

DDD, please post that SBR thong pick in my week 5 PT thread.

By my week 5 thread I mean this thread...

Week 5 NFL Picks - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3624637-week-5-nfl-picks-p16.html#post29780338

The SBR Lobby: Sports Talk, Gambling and Bettors Chat

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 12:57 PM

I'm staying away from that thread.

I entered it for like 2 minutes and had to take a shower after.

Now, I have a question:

Top or bottom?

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 12:59 PM

Looks like a nice place to vacation.

And eat some ass

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 01:00 PM

That's a tough one, im going with top first, then bottom.

DDD, post the thong pic here, I'll truck it on over to the appropriate thread and teach SBR how to organize things.

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 01:02 PM

Already looking at next week with the college openers coming out soon.

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 01:03 PM

**stevek173** · 10-11-20, 01:04 PM

KVB don't get banned man.

I just watched/listened to this, masturbated and cried 8 times in a row thinking of how I want you to stay.

No homo.

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You could bounce a quarter off that shit ^^^^!!!

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by KVB

That's a tough one, im going with top first, then bottom.

DDD, post the thong pic here, I'll truck it on over to the appropriate thread and teach SBR how to organize things.

I don’t have that pic saved.

Maybe you can go with that one pic of the guy hangin around...

from the cieling.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You could bounce a quarter off that shit ^^^^!!!

Probably 3 dimes, 4 nickles and a penny too.

I bet

**KVB** · 10-11-20, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

I don’t have that pic saved.

Maybe you can go with that one pic of the guy hangin around...

from the cieling.

I thought we didn't want me to get banned?

lol.

I am buying college games for next right now.

BC, Pitt, Coastal Carol, LSU, Georgia, all being bought with many more to come.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 01:16 PM

Are any of these NOT munchable?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-11-20, 01:19 PM

I've never liked that 3rd pose

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 10-11-20, 01:20 PM

Settle down KVB
Promise ya , nothing is worth getting banned over in Players Talk

**stevek173** · 10-11-20, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

I've never liked that 3rd pose

Lol you really get a face full of asshole w that one.

Personally I heart all of them, that one the least though.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 10-11-20, 01:30 PM

Funny... I ALMOST did not include that pic.