Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**Da Manster!** · 09-12-17, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

manster share those ncaaf locks with us, don't be holding out. haven't seen you post any mlb plays, thought you liked to play AL totals

didn't do any MLB action this year, TD...yes, I love MLB totals and I usually do pretty well betting them...I had too much real life stuff going on this past Summer so I wasn't able to fully concentrate and handicap MLB totals I normally do....however I am ready for pigskin season and rest assured I will post my plays...I have a thread over in players talk (PT) forum...I already posted this weeks action...I'm a teaser specialist...usually hit around 75 - 80%...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-12-17, 11:15 PM

planned on getting some booty and a slushy

didnt get any booty but got a slushy with pop rocks in it so meh

#gottagetinwhereyoufitinnigga

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-12-17, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

didn't do any MLB action this year, TD...yes, I love MLB totals and I usually do pretty well betting them...I had too much real life stuff going on this past Summer so I wasn't able to fully concentrate and handicap MLB totals I normally do....however I am ready for pigskin season and rest assured I will post my plays...I have a thread over in players talk (PT) forum...I already posted this weeks action...I'm a teaser specialist...usually hit around 75 - 80%...

bad thing about teasers is you gotta hit around 70% to make any kind of reasonable profit
They are fun though and if you know when to lay off them and when the time is right
the sky can be the limit .

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-12-17, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Shute loves you??!!!...

lust not love

Manster, id get up in that ass in some table tennis

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-12-17, 11:50 PM

Now the leg, uh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg7goEASO5E

**Da Manster!** · 09-12-17, 11:51 PM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-12-17, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Now the leg, uh?

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-12-17, 11:54 PM

doubt Scarface will ever be beaten
and im not even talking about the final scene
the whole movie, the dialogue ,script, and the actors

**Da Manster!** · 09-12-17, 11:55 PM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-12-17, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

explain...

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-13-17, 12:03 AM

Salud, Fidel.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-13-17, 12:03 AM

Thx, Fidel. One of a kind movie.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-13-17, 12:04 AM

Chucky the only guy on this forum who's higher than me

he already forgot he posted that scene 10 minutes ago

#unlimitedpotential

**Da Manster!** · 09-13-17, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

K....

**omedo** · 09-13-17, 04:11 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

bad thing about teasers is you gotta hit around 70% to make any kind of reasonable profit
They are fun though and if you know when to lay off them and when the time is right
the sky can be the limit .

I saw the teaser pick of Manster, and if you hit around 70% you do more than a reasonable profit.

The same teaser at pinny has down half a point on purdue but it pays more.

**omedo** · 09-13-17, 04:44 AM

So, champions league again.

Today only one pick.

Liverpool to win @ 1,74

**KVB** · 09-13-17, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

table plays nice , 550 dollar table for 315

Nothing like living with a pool table or ping pong table. You'll gain mad skills...

**KVB** · 09-13-17, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by omedo

So the champions league start today.

I have some picks:

Rome +0.5 @ 1.55
Man United to win @ 1.25
Chelsea to win @ 1.16

I know that people tend to not bet heavy chalk, but, oh well !!

Good Work here Omedo, three winners are three winners.

**KVB** · 09-13-17, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Chucky the only guy on this forum who's higher than me

he already forgot he posted that scene 10 minutes ago

#unlimitedpotential

**omedo** · 09-13-17, 11:15 AM

KVB, i dont understand what you mean when you say stacking forecast.

care to explain !?

**omedo** · 09-13-17, 12:26 PM

MLS - Atlanta United - New England Revolution

Atlanta to win @ 1,61

didnt encounter any of the United team, lets borrow some of Falcons !!!

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 01:17 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 01:21 PM

This dude was determined to hit SOMETHING. lol

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 01:51 PM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-13-17, 02:54 PM

Cubs: bullpen has an 8.03 ERA since the start of September..5.85 ERA since August 1 is MLB-worst

look at those fukkin dorks

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-13-17, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

classic eat then skeet situation right there

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 03:27 PM

Fidels Hit It And Quit It Cashflows

**KVB** · 09-13-17, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by omedo

KVB, i dont understand what you mean when you say stacking forecast.

care to explain !?

The “stacking percentages” forecast, as I call it, is basically determining a bunch of small edges, small percentages, and stacking them on top of each other to create a traditional black box type model. It’s fairly simplistic but accumulates a lot of relevant factors to achieve its results. Remember, I make many lines and some are made from pieces of the stacking forecast to gauge where the market is with certain factors in play.

For these forecasts a rating is generated for each team and then a predicted score calculated. Regressions are used and the goal is to get a low line error. The goal is try to get a more realistic score than the bookmaker can put out. One test of the stacking forecast is to compare its difference from the final score to the difference between opening and closing lines and the final score.

Say the stacking forecast predicts Pittsburgh to win by 7 points and the market is showing Pittsburgh -3. If Pittsburgh wins by 10 points the market was off of reality by 7 points. The forecast was off by 3 points. In this case, the forecast was closer to reality than the line. In my opinion, crossing key numbers can affect this error so the difference between 7 and 10 is relatively smaller than 3 points when compared to the line crossing through 4, 6, and 7 in its error. In that case the book ends up being off by more than 7 points, relatively speaking. Does that make sense?

The goal of the stacking forecast is to match or beat the market error at any given time. Having a lower line error is not necessary to beat the market. Remember, when I track the stacking forecast in threads, I use as little as half a point discrepancy against the lines. I track every play, not just triggered plays (like the sharp forecast in the NFL).

But we don’t bet every game and a subset of games is usually looked at, not every game. I am tough on myself when tracking at SBR, in the CFL thread the sharp forecast is also put up against a half point discrepancy. You can test the line error at any interval or margin predicted, not just a half point difference. This is where I mentioned in the past that a larger margin doesn’t always equal a better win rate. There’s a cap and it represents a danger to teams whose ratings are pushing highs for the season.

Think tank this shit.

**Da Manster!** · 09-13-17, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

lust not love

Manster, id get up in that ass in some table tennis

i always loved playing ping pong...err, I mean table tennis...

....but i sucked at it...still fun to play though.

**Da Manster!** · 09-13-17, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

I wouldn't mind eating her vaginal discharge.

**smokenjoke** · 09-13-17, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Fidels Hit It And Quit It then confess Cashflows

Fixed

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 04:32 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 04:38 PM

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 09-13-17, 04:45 PM

Close call: https://streamable.com/qmoz3

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 09-13-17, 05:29 PM

hhhmmmm