deutsche bank collapse & Stockmarket sell off late 2019

[astrobloke]

dont shoot me, im just the weary travelling messenger.

I do think these things will happen.

1) deutsche bank will fully collapse - yup its coming.
2) Other dominoes or banks to feel pressure / go down?
3) ITALY not do well.... ouch.
4) Will Cause US Stockmarket sell off hard 2019 {late 2019}

dont rub your nipples too much, it will wear the skin off them

Get prepared...

[Nitrogen]

1) deutsche bank will fully collapse - yup its coming.

To call them a shit show, does a disservice to actual shit shows. It seems like the business model for some of these enterprises is "let's take on so much risk, that we reach the too-big-to-fail mark". That place is an insane asylum.

[d2bets]

Define selloff. S&P 2700? 2500? 2300? 2000? 1800? Lower?

[keely85]

It’s amazing a bank would collapse when they give additional larger loans to individuals that default over 500 million. Just crazy!

[RoyBacon]

Define selloff. S&P 2700? 2500? 2300? 2000? 1800? Lower?

LOL.. ya reckon the OP has even a nickle riding on that prediction???

I have Deutsche bank bonds. They ain't going anywhere. The markets? We have a good chance of over heating although every one on the planet is predicting a slow down just as they did last year.

Just watch the 10 year and the price of oil. Like Shiff says; the evidence is in plain view.

[d2bets]

LOL.. ya reckon the OP has even a nickle riding on that prediction???

I have Deutsche bank bonds. They ain't going anywhere. The markets? We have a good chance of over heating although every one on the planet is predicting a slow down just as they did last year.

Just watch the 10 year and the price of oil. Like Shiff says; the evidence is in plain view.

Well the 10 year is predicting a slowdown. Then again the low rates are good to keep the economy going. It's propping up the housing market as much as possible.

[brooks85]

Well the 10 year is predicting a slowdown. Then again the low rates are good to keep the economy going. It's propping up the housing market as much as possible.

please stop posting before you mush something again. Thanks.

just stick saying trump won't win in 2020. Mush.

[RoyBacon]

Well the 10 year is predicting a slowdown. Then again the low rates are good to keep the economy going. It's propping up the housing market as much as possible.

Exactly. Then don't sell.

Money will gobble up stocks under 3% on the 10's. The 10 is 2.3%, well under the avg dividend on the best companies.

We break 3% on the 10 or $50 on crude you will know something is wrong.

If you have $58 crude that tells you there is no real slowdown. If you have 2.3% 10's that tells you stocks are not competing with rate vehicles.

[d2bets]

Exactly. Then don't sell.

Money will gobble up stocks under 3% on the 10's. The 10 is 2.3%, well under the avg dividend on the best companies.

We break 3% on the 10 or $50 on crude you will know something is wrong.

If you have $58 crude that tells you there is no real slowdown. If you have 2.3% 10's that tells you stocks are not competing with rate vehicles.

How low do you see the 10 year falling? Falling below 2% as in '12/13 and '16?

[RoyBacon]

How low do you see the 10 year falling? Falling below 2% as in '12/13 and '16?

I don't see it at 2.3%...LOL. I bought the crap out of the 2 year thinking that's the place to be. Get 2.2%. So far so good.

So the 10 is currently 2.27% I think we are printing the low right now, give or take .15%. July 4th it will be 2.5% and by the end of the year 3% assuming crude stays where it is +/- 10%. If crude breaks $48, like last fall, then a slow down is real & accelerating and the short side or the sideline is the play.

[ericc]

forget about Deutsche bank, remember Alfa Bank?

Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

“We’re the Union of Concerned Nerds,” in the wry formulation of the Indiana University
computer scientist L. Jean Camp.





Meet the Russian Bank with Ties to Donald Trump

http://fortune.com/2016/11/02/donald-trump-alfa-bank/

Alfa was founded and is controlled by the most enduringly successful, western-oriented (if hard-edged) capitalists in Russia. None of its key members are on either the U.S. or European sanctions lists, and the bank has in any case been run at a respectable arm’s length from the corporate skulduggery its owners have engaged in elsewhere. Its founder, Mikhail Fridman, has now largely cut his links with the country where he made his billions. He has applied for permanent residency in the U.K., and said in July that he intends to invest most of what he made selling his share of oil company TNK-BP in U.S. healthcare—well beyond the caprice and covetousness of any Russian leader or policeman.





Jean Camp Who Manufactured Trump & Alpha Bank Connection Given $2.4 Million By Obama

https://davidharrisjr.com/politics/jean-camp-who-manufactured-trump-alpha-bank-connection-given-2-4-million-by-obama/

Alfa Bank contacted Professor Camp and demanded she hand over her emails related to the Trump – Alfa bank connection, but she would not. The bank’s position is that the professor is an employee of a public entity (Indiana University) but still Camp’s attorney’s have refused to comply. Alfa would like to know who all was involved in her sending requests to the bank’s and Trump’s servers and with reporting the incident as a fact that Trump and Alfa bank had a secret back channel to each other.

[astrobloke]

To call them a shit show, does a disservice to actual shit shows. It seems like the business model for some of these enterprises is "let's take on so much risk, that we reach the too-big-to-fail mark". That place is an insane asylum.

that is exactly why they go up....in smoke.

[astrobloke]

Define selloff. S&P 2700? 2500? 2300? 2000? 1800? Lower?

from levels on S&P now about 30% drop...i reckong, but not till late in 2019, like SEPT or OCT / i reckon.

[astrobloke]

LOL.. ya reckon the OP has even a nickle riding on that prediction???

I have Deutsche bank bonds. They ain't going anywhere. The markets? We have a good chance of over heating although every one on the planet is predicting a slow down just as they did last year.

Just watch the 10 year and the price of oil. Like Shiff says; the evidence is in plain view.

I have more tahn a nickle on this...yes.

And bad things on market and deutche share price is erroding badly.....it will get worse.

I do not think it gets worse till late year...

[astrobloke]

Well the 10 year is predicting a slowdown. Then again the low rates are good to keep the economy going. It's propping up the housing market as much as possible.

yields down, means fed raise rates too much, and trade wars, is going to cause huge problems later in the year.

Stocks and market already overheated anyways......

Yields are telling us alot. I think they are setting up to screw trump over later in the year before 2020 elections.

They will crash the markets, blame trump, so he will not get re-elected in 2020.

But I already know TRUMP will get back in in 2020 so all is good there. Have a wager on that too, taht TRUMP is back in 2020, for another 4 years and people will be pissed!! :-D

me not...his a good president!!!

[astrobloke]

please stop posting before you mush something again. Thanks.

just stick saying trump won't win in 2020. Mush.

sure he might lose in 2020, but im betting when you see what the DEMOCRATS have done here, and their lies and corruption, he will use that to get re-elected, and win in 2020.

The democrats will split up, they will be forever known to try to take down a US president by the biggest lies, and corruption ever!!! what they did here, and accusing him of, is evil and they are infact guilty of this... you will soon see, bad things happening to the democrats....

[astrobloke]

please stop posting before you mush something again. Thanks.

just stick saying trump won't win in 2020. Mush.

it will be same ole, people will be angry when trump gets in again in 2020, but he is doing a good job!!

To be honest, I saw the Democrat Party imploding or breaking apart into two or three separate parties. will it happen before the 2020 election? Dunno??? but maybe after Trump wins by an overwhelming victory in 2020, that will cause the Democratic Party to come to it's end because you will see its forever going be attached to the lies and corruption that tried to take down a duly elected President.

[astrobloke]

I don't see it at 2.3%...LOL. I bought the crap out of the 2 year thinking that's the place to be. Get 2.2%. So far so good.

So the 10 is currently 2.27% I think we are printing the low right now, give or take .15%. July 4th it will be 2.5% and by the end of the year 3% assuming crude stays where it is +/- 10%. If crude breaks $48, like last fall, then a slow down is real & accelerating and the short side or the sideline is the play.

yields curve inverted, so it wont happen quick, i still think bad things are going to come to the stocks, stockmarket in about i would say OCT or so... ( late year )

usually after yield curve inverts you get a recession about 17 months later, ....

I dont think we see a 08' subprime crisis again, but it will really rip the off and not be good for people in the stockmarket, they will be angry, at the large BLOOD red we see.

its all getting interesting....

[astrobloke]

Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

“We’re the Union of Concerned Nerds,” in the wry formulation of the Indiana University
computer scientist L. Jean Camp.





Meet the Russian Bank with Ties to Donald Trump

http://fortune.com/2016/11/02/donald-trump-alfa-bank/

Alfa was founded and is controlled by the most enduringly successful, western-oriented (if hard-edged) capitalists in Russia. None of its key members are on either the U.S. or European sanctions lists, and the bank has in any case been run at a respectable arm’s length from the corporate skulduggery its owners have engaged in elsewhere. Its founder, Mikhail Fridman, has now largely cut his links with the country where he made his billions. He has applied for permanent residency in the U.K., and said in July that he intends to invest most of what he made selling his share of oil company TNK-BP in U.S. healthcare—well beyond the caprice and covetousness of any Russian leader or policeman.





Jean Camp Who Manufactured Trump & Alpha Bank Connection Given $2.4 Million By Obama

https://davidharrisjr.com/politics/jean-camp-who-manufactured-trump-alpha-bank-connection-given-2-4-million-by-obama/

Alfa Bank contacted Professor Camp and demanded she hand over her emails related to the Trump – Alfa bank connection, but she would not. The bank’s position is that the professor is an employee of a public entity (Indiana University) but still Camp’s attorney’s have refused to comply. Alfa would like to know who all was involved in her sending requests to the bank’s and Trump’s servers and with reporting the incident as a fact that Trump and Alfa bank had a secret back channel to each other.

ok i read all this,

trump did not collude, everything goes back to HILLARY and OBAMA,

Remember hillary wanted the seat to get JFK juniors seat and he died in a plane crash mysteriously.....

Hillary and OBAMA, bad things coming for them, 2nd term of trumps presidency.....

He already warned us ,, even before TRUMP was president....

Once you see what HILLARY did and OBAMA, i doubt they will want to walk in teh streets....

what is teh punishment for TREASON!??

[astrobloke]

LOL.. ya reckon the OP has even a nickle riding on that prediction???

I have Deutsche bank bonds. They ain't going anywhere. The markets? We have a good chance of over heating although every one on the planet is predicting a slow down just as they did last year.

Just watch the 10 year and the price of oil. Like Shiff says; the evidence is in plain view.

you might want to check the chart, not in bonds, im shorting since break of the support at $11.... we will see it go down much further, and end of 2019 will see much lower prices than you see today.

Current price https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DB 7.02

I think we see much lower prices, cause the news has not come out yet. They just keep saying the CEO who has been driving this crap company into their groudn wants $6 mill USD payout.

yes they want to be rewarded for sending the company into the garbage pile. Same ole thing, different day.

Greedy fat bankers...

[astrobloke]

Investors Grow Jittery Over Italy

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-grow-jittery-over-italy-11559053435?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=5

maybe in the future you get a very good rates on Buy italian bonds... but only if they offer 8% ... 10% ... 12% on their bonds....buy italian bonds at 12%....in the future if I see that rate. Per year!! Good profits..$$$$

[guitarjosh]

yields curve inverted, so it wont happen quick, i still think bad things are going to come to the stocks, stockmarket in about i would say OCT or so... ( late year )

usually after yield curve inverts you get a recession about 17 months later, ....

I dont think we see a 08' subprime crisis again, but it will really rip the off and not be good for people in the stockmarket, they will be angry, at the large BLOOD red we see.

its all getting interesting....

It's a partial inversion. The 30 year hasn't inverted with anything, and it always has an average of 16 months to the start of a recession.

[astrobloke]

It's a partial inversion. The 30 year hasn't inverted with anything, and it always has an average of 16 months to the start of a recession.

it did invert but went back....i agree... and i think from memory its about 18 months later. I think if we do get something bad happen on the stockmarket later this year, that is another warning sign, ..... lots of people nervous, but no use being nervous I am always asking myself how I can profit.

[guitarjosh]

it did invert but went back....i agree... and i think from memory its about 18 months later. I think if we do get something bad happen on the stockmarket later this year, that is another warning sign, ..... lots of people nervous, but no use being nervous I am always asking myself how I can profit.

The 30 year hasn't been inverted with anything since 2007. Historically it has inverted with the 1 year yield 17 months before the 1980 recession, 11 months before 1981, 19 months before 1990, 13 months before 2001, and 22 months before 2007. That spread is currently around 40 basis points from inverting.

[RoyBacon]

you might want to check the chart, not in bonds, im shorting since break of the support at $11.... we will see it go down much further, and end of 2019 will see much lower prices than you see today.

Current price https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DB 7.02

I think we see much lower prices, cause the news has not come out yet. They just keep saying the CEO who has been driving this crap company into their groudn wants $6 mill USD payout.

yes they want to be rewarded for sending the company into the garbage pile. Same ole thing, different day.

Greedy fat bankers...

The chart is a bit misleading. The stock has gone from basically $10 to $7.

The bonds for '21 are trading at near par and rated a pretty strong BBB- by S&P. You have to go back to Enron to find a BBB- that failed and 10 years before that to find another example.

[astrobloke]

there is no misleading here, get a clue, that is the actual true listing on the european exchange, as its a company from where, eurpoe.

I almost feel that I am like telling you how badly behaved your first child is here, the way you are responding. Protecting them BONDS in your top draw all you like..., and compare to enron, but this company is in trouble, just face it.....and probably going to lead the larger sell off, that I am talking about.

[astrobloke]

and you can forget the protecting of your bonds, there is no lying, you can do what you like.... you could have literally bought Deutche bank many moons ago for $55 per share==> , https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DB&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

yup $55 per share. The chart does not lie. today $7.... you get it yet??

sure I dont want people to lose money, but there is no misleading....it simple a company in dias straits

[chico2663]

The chart is a bit misleading. The stock has gone from basically $10 to $7.

The bonds for '21 are trading at near par and rated a pretty strong BBB- by S&P. You have to go back to Enron to find a BBB- that failed and 10 years before that to find another example.

is astro that broke ass relative you always bitch about?

[d2bets]

I don't see it at 2.3%...LOL. I bought the crap out of the 2 year thinking that's the place to be. Get 2.2%. So far so good.

So the 10 is currently 2.27% I think we are printing the low right now, give or take .15%. July 4th it will be 2.5% and by the end of the year 3% assuming crude stays where it is +/- 10%. If crude breaks $48, like last fall, then a slow down is real & accelerating and the short side or the sideline is the play.

The 10 year keeps falling and falling. 2.225 and I kind of figure 2.1xx by the end of the week.

[RoyBacon]

The 10 year keeps falling and falling. 2.225 and I kind of figure 2.1xx by the end of the week.

Yep. The couple of weak reports, repricing in a no china deal and sharply reducing GDP is weighing heavily on stocks and boosting bonds.

I'm still selling bonds but everyday they go higher. The economy is much stronger than a 2.23% 10.

[d2bets]

Yep. The couple of weak reports, repricing in a no china deal and sharply reducing GDP is weighing heavily on stocks and boosting bonds.

I'm still selling bonds but everyday they go higher. The economy is much stronger than a 2.23% 10.

2.21% now as markets plunge.

From 2.42 to 2.21 in just the last week. In another week, might be at 2?

[ericc]

2.21% now as markets plunge.

From 2.42 to 2.21 in just the last week. In another week, might be at 2?

Looks as if bond holder class is now worse off than working class.

[RoyBacon]

and you can forget the protecting of your bonds, there is no lying, you can do what you like.... you could have literally bought Deutche bank many moons ago for $55 per share==> , https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DB&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

yup $55 per share. The chart does not lie. today $7.... you get it yet??

sure I dont want people to lose money, but there is no misleading....it simple a company in dias straits

You could say that about every bank. RBS went to nothing as did BAC. Their bonds, like Deutche are investment grade. As I said the '21's are trading at par, a little over and are yielding under 3%. Here is the last trade;

100.199

Yield: 2.997%

So if the company is in imminent trouble it's a secret only you know. I don't much care about the shares.

D2 the 10 year is 2.26. I'll bet any amount it is closer to 2.5% on the 4th of July than 2%. Points? 1000? These bonds are a definite sell.

[d2bets]

You could say that about every bank. RBS went to nothing as did BAC. Their bonds, like Deutche are investment grade. As I said the '21's are trading at par, a little over and are yielding under 3%. Here is the last trade;

100.199

Yield: 2.997%

So if the company is in imminent trouble it's a secret only you know. I don't much care about the shares.

D2 the 10 year is 2.26. I'll bet any amount it is closer to 2.5% on the 4th of July than 2%. Points? 1000? These bonds are a definite sell.

Sure. So I'll bet 1,000 points that the 10 year is 2.250 or lower at 11:59pm EST on July 4th.

[d2bets]

You could say that about every bank. RBS went to nothing as did BAC. Their bonds, like Deutche are investment grade. As I said the '21's are trading at par, a little over and are yielding under 3%. Here is the last trade;

100.199

Yield: 2.997%

So if the company is in imminent trouble it's a secret only you know. I don't much care about the shares.

D2 the 10 year is 2.26. I'll bet any amount it is closer to 2.5% on the 4th of July than 2%. Points? 1000? These bonds are a definite sell.

Might be under 2 this week.