Nightmare vs. Dream

[QuickLearner]

This is hypothetical. At least it's never happened to me...

You are an online poker player sitting at a 10-seat NL cash game in the big blind and you're playing for enough money that it would bother you if you lost a buy-in. Every single person at the table limps in. You look down to find pocket aces. You know one thing: Your aces have less than a 35% chance to win against 9 random hands.

1.) Do you shove your stack in, make your standard raise, check, or do you fold? Explain why in one or two sentences.

2.) What's the biggest mistake implied in the above problem?

3.) Does your answer change if you are playing your first hand in a tournament that you paid a lot of money to enter? Again, why?

Let me save us all some time. Since it's my question I can make up a rule: No answer is acceptable if it contains any form of the following phrase, "...because online poker is rigged."

[Point Spread]

This is hypothetical. At least it's never happened to me...

You are an online poker player sitting at a 10-seat NL cash game in the big blind and you're playing for enough money that it would bother you if you lost a buy-in. Every single person at the table limps in. You look down to find pocket aces. You know one thing: Your aces have less than a 35% chance to win against 9 random hands.

1.) Do you shove your stack in, make your standard raise, check, or do you fold? Explain why in one or two sentences.

2.) What's the biggest mistake implied in the above problem?

3.) Does your answer change if you are playing your first hand in a tournament that you paid a lot of money to enter? Again, why?

Let me save us all some time. Since it's my question I can make up a rule: No answer is acceptable if it contains any form of the following phrase, "...because online poker is rigged."

RAISE!!!

It's Poker...

[Razz]

Let's assume a $2/$5 NL game, with a buy-in of around $300. This is the game I normally play in live, so it will be easier for me to relate to.

1) The best choice, in my opinion, is to raise to between $50 and $70. There is $50 in the pot, but you are clearly dealing with loose players, so a very big raise is in order to force most out. There is also a good chance that someone with a lesser hand sees your raise, and re-raises/moves all in.
Checking is out of the question. If you do this, you can't really proceed on very many flops that don't include an ace, because one of nine random hands is more than likely going to outflop you, or at least flop a draw that is a favorite over you.
Folding is obviously not an option for a variety of reasons.
There can be a strong argument made for moving all in, as there are a couple reasons you may get called. Bad players are capable of calling their last $100 with a hand like 99 in this spot. Also, an early position player could be limping with a big hand like QQ or KK, hoping for a raise behind him so he can re-raise. But, raising $60 accomplishes the same thing here, as he likely moves in.

[Razz]

2) You're playing for enough money that it would bother you if you lost a buy-in.

I'm always bothered when I lose, but not because of the money.

[Razz]

3) Not really. You obviously don't have the option of rebuying in a tournament, so you want to make sure not to get knocked out. My desire to isolate one opponent, or take down what is already in the pot, is even greater in a tournament, but I still raise basically the same.

[scottyy11]

yes cash game i would raise but more than your standard 3-4xbb since that would still give people good pot odds to call with 9 limpers 9xbb..........i think i would raise around the pot ........you dont mind getting some action ...perfect bet would be one that gets 1-2 callers but not 3-4........thats why 3-4 x bb standard raise is no good bound to have 3-6 callers


tourn early on i think it is ok to move allin and sacrifice a little for secirity and take down a fair pot uncontested but i dont know much about tourns so would like to here others opinion on the tourn front? no way would i ever just call


i saw a interesting twist on this question in cardplayer.......if you were on button and looked down and found aa first hand in wsop and 5 people went allin in front of you would you call? how many of us could live upto the math on this one?

[bostonceltics13]

It would depend how many players are tight. I'd want to bet enough to push out a few hands so there's less of a chance you are outdrawn. If you check it or make a small raise and a suited 3,4 flops a straight or flush, you'd kick yourself. I'd be happy with everyone mucking their hands and picking up 9 blinds at once. I'd rather die with pre-flop aces than live with regret.

[Ganchrow]

You are an online poker player sitting at a 10-seat NL cash game in the big blind and you're playing for enough money that it would bother you if you lost a buy-in. Every single person at the table limps in. You look down to find pocket aces. You know one thing: Your aces have less than a 35% chance to win against 9 random hands.

2.) What's the biggest mistake implied in the above problem?

"Your aces have less than a 35% chance to win against 9 random hands." While there's no doubting the veracity of this statement, it applies only against players who have stayed with you until the showdown. Even though all other 9 players did call we would have to believe that a raise preflop or a bet after the flop would drastically limit (or eliminate) the field.

Therefore, insofar as we can bet to push players out of the pot, the <35% figure serves only as lower bound to our actual winning probability. We have every reason to expect our true probability be considerably higher.

[darkghost]

"Your aces have less than a 35% chance to win against 9 random hands." Is this really accurate? I'd think it'd be much lower than that.

But in terms of the answer you seek I think Razz has it dead-on. One thing to add about tourney play that most players don't really think about is: What are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to win 1st place or are you simply trying to survive and finish in the money? If you're in survival mode you want to push all-in w/ AA and hope everyone folds and win a small pot. If you want to try to build a chip stack you should raise enough to try to get a couple of callers and see a flop.

[slacker00]

I think the strategic concepts in this scenario are well discussed by Razz and others. Personally, I push in this situation, since I'm way out of position against everyone and the pot is big enough compared to my stack size.

You are an online poker player sitting at a 10-seat NL cash game in the big blind and you're playing for enough money that it would bother you if you lost a buy-in.

This part is what I zeroed in on when I first read the scenario over. You should never have more than 5% of your total bankroll sitting at the table if you want to be able to handle reasonable variance. If busting out "bothers" you, my feeling is that you may be playing above your bankroll. It's like sports betting, where a standard bet should be 1% of your bankroll and a big bet never above 5%, in poker you don't want to play a NL buy-in bigger than 5% of your total bankroll.

[QuickLearner]

"Your aces have less than a 35% chance to win against 9 random hands." While there's no doubting the veracity of this statement, it applies only against players who have stayed with you until the showdown. Even though all other 9 players did call we would have to believe that a raise preflop or a bet after the flop would drastically limit (or eliminate) the field.

Therefore, insofar as we can bet to push players out of the pot, the <35% figure serves only as lower bound to our actual winning probability. We have every reason to expect our true probability be considerably higher.

Your answer is an interesting one because it really point to the maddening qualities of the problem. How much would you bet to push others out? Your last sentence indicates that you'd push enough so that there would be only a few opponents left. Let's assume that you make some bet that does exxactly that, and you are called by 3 players each of whom hold a hand that may warrant a call here.

It's a $1/$2 game with $200 stacks. You make a $24 bet and get 3 calls; the pot is $92.

Player 1 (you) hold AhAd
Player 2 holds KdQd
Player 3 holds JsTs
Player 4 holds 8c7c

Pokerstove says:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.2658 % 48.25% 00.02% { AdAh }
Hand 2: 13.9859 % 13.97% 00.02% { KdQd }
Hand 3: 18.2873 % 18.27% 00.02% { JsTs }
Hand 4: 19.4610 % 19.44% 00.02% { 8c7c }


Are you happy with that?

[QuickLearner]

Personally, I push in this situation, since I'm way out of position against everyone and the pot is big enough compared to my stack size.

You are a total madman. And I agree completely.

...in poker you don't want to play a NL buy-in bigger than 5% of your total bankroll.

For me, it's much closer to 1%. As you can see, tactically I'm a madman, but strategically I'm so conservative I should be carrying around a copy of the Constitution and a Bible.