I've seen a lot of "poker is rigged" threads lately. So from time to time I like to post this.
This is a poker variance simulator. It in essence simulates thousands of poker hands with the push of a button. I'm sure it's going to zoom over some heads here, but whatever. This takes the same player and runs him through 100,000 (or more or less if you so choose) different hands. The example below is one of a player with a 3.0bb/100 win rate, which is actually a pretty solid player.
The dotted line is your expected win rate at 3.0bb/100 over 100,000 hands. As you can see, there are two extreme win rates, one that wins way more than expected, and that who loses much more than expected. There are also players who fall way below and way above the dotted line, only to come close to it eventually over 100,000 hands.
Point is, Variance can be a bitch and it can also be a blessing over a long period of time. Just notice the swings. No matter if you are a winning player or a losing player, if you never change the way you play, you are likely to meet your win rate in the long run.
This is a poker variance simulator. It in essence simulates thousands of poker hands with the push of a button. I'm sure it's going to zoom over some heads here, but whatever. This takes the same player and runs him through 100,000 (or more or less if you so choose) different hands. The example below is one of a player with a 3.0bb/100 win rate, which is actually a pretty solid player.
The dotted line is your expected win rate at 3.0bb/100 over 100,000 hands. As you can see, there are two extreme win rates, one that wins way more than expected, and that who loses much more than expected. There are also players who fall way below and way above the dotted line, only to come close to it eventually over 100,000 hands.
Point is, Variance can be a bitch and it can also be a blessing over a long period of time. Just notice the swings. No matter if you are a winning player or a losing player, if you never change the way you play, you are likely to meet your win rate in the long run.
