Theory on Running it Twice

BeerDog99 · 03-23-11, 06:50 PM

I think that is a pretty good analogy. The key point is highlighting that it is very unlikely you will lose that twice in a row.

wiffle · 03-23-11, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by LVBOUND

Think about this theory. You are playing Phil Ivey heads up AA for you AK unsuited for Ivey. All in pre flop. You are playing one hand for your net worth. Do you run it twice?

I ask this question because I was trying to explain to a friend why to run it twice. He is playing in a game where he is under rolled and the money means more to him than his opponent.

What's everyone's thoughts?

id run it once because phil ivey wont let you run it twice

MadTiger · 03-23-11, 06:58 PM

The exact numbers:

(PokerStove)

93.172% for AA
6.828% for AK offsuit

(This includes the very small percentage of the time that you tie. Even taking out ties, the point is still made.)

daneblazer · 03-23-11, 07:01 PM

run it twice to reduce variance

BGboothA · 03-23-11, 07:11 PM

Anytime you can reduce variance and find 'true' percentages the better! Run it twice

mighty maron · 03-23-11, 07:23 PM

Running it twice is more for hands like 60-40 or 70-30. If you ever run it twice AA vs AK then shoot yourself and will all your winnings to MENSA. Maybe they would let you in then because you aint a genius running it twice

lolguy999 · 03-23-11, 07:31 PM

running it twice is for 40 60. Nothing over 70/30 if specified of say 80 20, run it 4-5 times to reduce variance so 20 deserves 1/4 or 1/5

wiffle · 03-23-11, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by mighty maron

Running it twice is more for hands like 60-40 or 70-30. If you ever run it twice AA vs AK then shoot yourself and will all your winnings to MENSA. Maybe they would let you in then because you aint a genius running it twice

lol wat

Czu81 · 03-24-11, 05:10 AM

I would run it 10 times at least.. LOL

Ian · 03-24-11, 05:52 AM

Your analogy is flawed. If I'm on such scared money that I'm afraid to get it in with AA preflop, then my problem isn't how many times I run it. My problem is that I'm playing too high. Personally, if I was in the AA vs. AK spot I would run it only once as a 93% favorite as I wouldn't want to increase my chance of chopping in a situation where I'm such a huge favorite for such a large (for me) amount of money. I've been short on money before and I'm not afraid of going broke.

Running it twice is worse in actual practice. It's much better to run it only once if you're the dog because it's easier to suck out the whole pot. If you run it twice and suck out the first time, it's harder to take the whole pot because on the second run some of your outs are dead. This doesn't change the EV of the situation at all, but sucking out on an all-in will often put your opponent on tilt whereas chopping with him won't. Also, gimmicks like this slow the game down quite a bit, which imo is a big no-no when playing live.

Jimmy Proffett · 03-24-11, 02:57 PM

If I was playing against Phil Ivey and had the best of it preflop, I personally run it only once. If an amateur is playing against a pro for a session, they're going to lose money over time in-between big hands. When you have a big hand that's any kind of favorite pre-flop against a pro, the best way to get those chips back that you've been bleeding off is to run it once when you're ahead. At least that's my opinion.

nmr123321 · 03-24-11, 03:40 PM

that's a pretty good reason

Kaladarus · 03-24-11, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by Czu81

I would run it 10 times at least.. LOL

10 times would be good for sure.

sweethook · 03-25-11, 08:26 AM

id say just once , but if its for all you got -net-, iam sure your nuts would be real tight, if he wanted twice id say so how about 3 times ??

daneblazer · 03-25-11, 10:54 AM

Some of the answers in this thread....

You want to run it as many times as you can to reflect the equity you have in the hand. If I invite you over to my house and give myself AA each time, give you KK each time for $100 a hand, run it 100 times, see who comes out ahead. If we run it one, two, or three times, it's certainly possible for KK to catch a run and win each hand. The more you run it, the more it reduces your risk of ruin.

The problem is that you can't keep requesting to run it twice when you are ahead without returning the favor when you are behind unless you are at a table full of dip shits. If someone wants to run it twice with me when I'm ahead, I'll accept it, but as mentioned above it slows the game down considerably if it happens too often. There's a lot of other variables here to consider as well, like your roll, type of game, etc. Someone like "the loose cannon" wouldn't care to run it twice when he's behind because it's not his money and he's taking a shot.