For my Poker Peeps.....BTP/BAG Picks to fade

**USCPHILLYGUY** · 09-22-17, 05:08 PM

Tailing

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 09-22-17, 05:18 PM

I was joking but thanks!

**Slanina** · 09-22-17, 06:33 PM

That just means you're due! Variance is about to kick in.

**franklee168** · 09-22-17, 06:37 PM

All over it. Going with you, max plays.

**mpaschal34** · 09-22-17, 07:39 PM

It should be against me!!!

**Slanina** · 09-24-17, 02:22 AM

Variance baby!

**Auto Donk** · 09-24-17, 04:00 AM

how'd they turn out?

**USCPHILLYGUY** · 09-24-17, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by mpaschal34

This is mainly for Jake as he wanted to know my plays to fade (but I was busy playing two tables).

Men....I am ice cold in the football contests....so if you want to win, fade my picks. (I'm 5-14-1 and haven't hit one 2X/3X pick yet).

So take advantage.....week 3 picks:

Tulane -2.5 (2X) WIN
UVA under 49.5 LOSS
CAL +17.5 WIN
ARK +2.5 TOUGH LOSS
Cincy +11.5 (Navy shouldn't be getting double digit points here) WIN

Good luck to you guys!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-24-17, 07:31 AM

Sports-betting is so tough. Can't even lose, when you try to lose.

**mpaschal34** · 09-24-17, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Sports-betting is so tough. Can't even lose, when you try to lose.

believe me i'm not trying to lose (i want points), i just figured that i might as well let others benefit from my bad picking.

with that being said....here are my beat the bag picks:

Dallas -3 (3X play)
GB -7.5
KC/SD over 48
NYG/PHI over 43
DEN/BUF over 40

**franklee168** · 09-24-17, 10:35 AM

I'm all in.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-24-17, 07:16 PM

mpas, not really saying that. Your post is noble.

My point is this. It's hard to hit > 50%. It's also hard to hit < 50%.

Line is set to balance action. And it often feels like we're flipping a coin.

**mpaschal34** · 09-28-17, 06:17 PM

Official numbers since tracking:

BTP: 3-2 +1.80
BTB: 3-2 +2.90

Going to make or break my week with tonight's NFL Game

Chi/GB under 44 for my 2x BTP and 3x BTB plays.

**Auto Donk** · 09-29-17, 09:58 AM

well, that certainly went well....

im hungry as hell once I saw i only missed the pizza by a blown extra point and a bears field goal.... now I can't get f'n pizza off my mind and am gonna have to try once again at the pizza hut that has no clue how to use a sbr/pizza hut e-gift card.....

twice i've walked out of there with no pizza....

here's hopin' the third time is a charm....

**mpaschal34** · 09-29-17, 10:24 AM

As I've said before, this thread is mainly a fade thread and it should benefit you well.

Actually thought the pick was good, but a couple of Bears turnovers deep in their own territory wrecked it for me.

**Auto Donk** · 09-29-17, 11:04 AM

da bears

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 09-29-17, 12:09 PM

el nino and I should start posting our awful nfl picks here

I see he is one away from last place in BTB and I'm hot on his tail

**Auto Donk** · 09-29-17, 12:24 PM

seems like the pts being paid are far less this year than years past, even taking into account the double contest aspect of bagofpricks....

im guessing either sbr had to pay brenner a huge wrongful termination settlement, or that hottub my wife and I flooded in our room the last morning before leaving punta cana did more downstairs damage than I figured, and sbr got hit with that tab.....

**mpaschal34** · 09-30-17, 09:52 AM

rest of the fades for this week....

BTP

Pitt -20.5
Cal over 67
Ohio St over 51
Tex A&M over 48.5

BTB

LAR +6
IND +13
MIN over 43
PHI over 48

**Auto Donk** · 10-01-17, 12:01 PM

**USCPHILLYGUY** · 10-01-17, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Auto Donk

seems like the pts being paid are far less this year than years past, even taking into account the double contest aspect of bagofpricks....

im guessing either sbr had to pay brenner a huge wrongful termination settlement, or that hottub my wife and I flooded in our room the last morning before leaving punta cana did more downstairs damage than I figured, and sbr got hit with that tab.....

I will see Brenner in a few weeks..........he said dinner on him so you might be right

**Auto Donk** · 10-01-17, 01:11 PM

tell that badboy donk says hello.... and i'm still willing to do some voice over/on camera work with him....

no homo

**mpaschal34** · 10-09-17, 08:50 AM

I guess that variance comment above was 100% true. Went 8-2 this weekend, including 5-0 in Beat the Bag.

Can't wait for my 50 point free play.

**Auto Donk** · 10-09-17, 09:02 AM

this thread had all the hallmarks of a pool shark setting us up from the outset....

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 10-09-17, 09:25 AM

my BTB fades are absolute gold..

Beat the Bag in NFL: $25,000 + 10K Pts/Week

Current Rank: 1312 of 1378

**Optional** · 10-09-17, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by mpaschal34

I guess that variance comment above was 100% true. Went 8-2 this weekend, including 5-0 in Beat the Bag.

Can't wait for my 50 point free play.

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

my BTB fades are absolute gold..

Beat the Bag in NFL: $25,000 + 10K Pts/Week

Current Rank: 1312 of 1378

Just goes to show it's been a season for the public and squares so far this year.

I just make my picks based on odds and what is being bet down and ma having best year ever