Are you lucky?

Willie Bee · 06-29-06, 01:09 PM

There are a lot of outcomes in sports that 'luck' is involved in the outcome. But, as Branch Rickey once said, "Luck is the residue of design." Balls bounce funny, players close their eyes and shoot free throws, umpires somehow miss chalk flying up on a 'foul' ball, the last guy to make the team causes and recovers a fumble on his own 2-yard line, etc., etc., etc.

Take my wager on the Yankees in 1996, for example. I was pretty much a member of the Yankee Haters Fan Club, yet my best friend, who was a huge NYY fan, passes away just at the start of the season. A short time after his funeral, I'm in Vegas with my wife who is there on business. Almost didn't go because of my heavy heart.

So it's Sunday and I'm in Caesar's sipping a morning cocktail and watching some east coast ponies run. I just happen to glance back behind me and running across the tote board is, "NYY 12/1 World Series." And I think to myself, "It would be Mike's luck to pass away just before the Yankees win it all." So I walk up to the window and throw a Franklin down on the Yankees to go all the way.

Almost to a man, my friends tell me I'm a huge idiot for making the wager. They are actually concerned about me, thinking that I may be going a bit daffy out of depression for my friend's death.

About six months later, I go from being an idiot to being the luckiest guy in the world according to the same friends. I'm lucky because the Yankees even made the playoffs. I'm lucky that they faced Texas in the ALDS, a team they owned. I'm lucky because some snot-nosed kid reaches over the wall and deflects a Derek Jeter fly ball for a home run. I'm lucky because Atlanta laid down after being up two games to none lead in the series. I'm lucky because Mark Wohlers hangs a slider to Jim Leyritz.

No sir, none of those things made me lucky. Where I got lucky is I actually misplaced the ticket at some point in the summer, one of those "I'll put it here where it will be safe and I'll never forget where I put it" moments in life. Just about the time the playoffs start that year, I've already given up on finding the ticket before I stumble across it in a most coincidental manner. True story

tomcast · 06-29-06, 01:19 PM

I don't feel lucky with bet4aces right now.

JDK192 · 06-29-06, 03:56 PM

That's a great story Willie Bee. I feel I'm one of the most unlucky gamblers on the planet. I've lost countless games on meaningless 3 pointers at the buzzer and pick 6's to cover with almost no time remaining. I lost a game on a missed extra point (Min vs Det) and a meaningless safety on the last play of the game (Tenn vs Oak) on the same NFL sunday 2 yrs ago. I lost 12, that's right 12, under bets just because the game went into OT during this NBA season, and was not lucky enough to even win 1 over bet caused by overtime. I think that's astronomically unlucky.

Dark Horse · 06-29-06, 04:45 PM

Great question. And very bothersome...

I've had plenty of bad breaks, yet I consider myself very lucky.

The question bothered me, because after some soul searching it made me realize I should count my blessings more. Why? Because I believe that being grateful opens to doors to receiving more abundance. I also think we close those doors if we don't feel gratitude.

Amen.

Willie Bee · 06-29-06, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by JDK192

I think that's astronomically unlucky.

I would agree. I would also probably stay away from the NBA, at least for a while, when that kind of run happened to me. Does it or has it ever evened out for you?

It's the last play that usually gets the highlights, but I'm convinced you can take about 50% of the baseball games and change one pitch, or its outcome, by just 1" during the middle three innings and totally change a game's final score. I'm not talking about, "If the pitcher throws the pitch an inch fatter, the batter takes it out for a grand slam." I mean the batter hits one an inch foul, or pops it foul and a fielder reaches in and barely catches the ball in the stands, or a shortstop just manages to snare a grounder by an inch and start a double play, sh¡t like that.

Illusion · 06-29-06, 08:05 PM

It seems that whenever I am in a tight spot the ball always bounces my way (and I'm not talking about sports). My friends always tell me that I am lucky and I would have to agree with them. On that note, I am gonna go buy a Powerball ticket tonight.

Mudcat · 06-29-06, 08:24 PM

One reason I feel unlucky in betting is my recent experiences with mistakes. Not too often but sometimes I make betting mistakes. Like maybe I'll be playing a last minute arb and mess up and only get one bet in. So instead of a guaranteed 50 buck arb (or whatever) I'll end up with a $3000 straight bet I didn't want.

It's not automatically a disaster because of course the game still has to be played and I can end up winning that bet and have $3000 instead of $50. But over the course of the last ~2 years I've made about 5 mistakes like that and lost every one. I know I've had some before that that have gone my way but it feels unlucky right now.

I can also relate to the comments about bets being screwed up by last minute flukey happenings or things falling an inch different from what I need. That's a big part of the reason I almost never watch games I have straight bets on. Sometimes it's better for my sanity to just know that I lost the bet and not necessarily know exactly how.

Utopia · 06-29-06, 08:26 PM

I accept the ups and downs.

If I said I was lucky, I know the direction will change...

JDK192 · 06-29-06, 08:33 PM

Yeah, I've definately caught some breaks and won same games that I shouldn't have. I think those games are mostly forgotten. When you look at all your plays at the end of the season you still cringe at the ones that you feel you had the right side but lost anyway because of a bad bounce. The ones that you luckily win I guess just aren't as memorable to me. So I'm probably not as unlucky as I think I am, but I have lost far more unlucky games than I've won lucky.

BuddyBear · 06-29-06, 08:37 PM

if you are still betting you are lucky....

clonecat · 06-29-06, 09:24 PM

After last night when a catcher couldn't catch a pop up in the bottom of the ninth leading to a double and the tying run and then with two outs in the bottom of the ninth the shortstop throws one away to let the winning run score, I don't feel lucky.

I think luck comes in streaks, which doesn't bode well for me as the night before I had bet on the Rangers who would have tied the game on a double by Texeira except a blind umpire called the ball fall.

JoshW · 06-29-06, 09:25 PM

Some would say just being born in a developed nation is lucky. To me one of millions of sperm to have made it. To exist at all. Ok not exactly the spirit of the thread.

C- for me.

clonecat · 06-29-06, 09:38 PM

Also bet on the Mariners tonight, who just balked in a run. This ones got a Buckner by Sexson written all over it in the bottom of the ninth.

LVHerbie · 07-01-06, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by Illusion

It seems that whenever I am in a tight spot the ball always bounces my way (and I'm not talking about sports). My friends always tell me that I am lucky and I would have to agree with them. On that note, I am gonna go buy a Powerball ticket tonight.

We should start a thread were we all buy one powerball ticket, type in the numbers, and chop the prize... Of course there would probably be at least one AK out there who either win and disappear or, probably more AK style, just type in a bunch bogus numbers to hustle a weekly dollar's worth of +EV... ;-)

On topic, there's been times when I felt like the luckiest person in the world, and then others when I felt like I was unluckiest... Probably comes from make way too many stupid and crazy bets... Then again I guess it could be argued that I'm a little too willing to accept excessive variance...