Posted elsewhere last week.
1-0
Fukkin jinx myself posting plays here.
Having watched both of these teams’ openers several times now on tape, I have come to the conclusion that running the ball to set up the passing game is going to be very tough to do for either of these teams. There is no way the Lions run up the middle on Ike Sapoaga and absolutely no way they run outside on anyone with the personnel available, Kevin Smith is a cripple and just not capable.
The Niners beat the Lions last year in Detroit on the back of Frank Gore who ran between the tackles for two huge runs against a Lion defense hell bent on sacking Alex Smith and without Nick Fairley. That was a common theme last year for the Lion’s front 4, over pursuit and no Fairley, who was hobbled most of the year. Fairley was such a beast last week against the Ram’s front line that they simply stopped trying to run into it. Steven Jackson got nothing at all. The Lion’s line did a much better, even an excellent job of gap control and still managed to pressure the QB. The Rams O-Line was pretty beat up for much of the game and I don’t think Bradford is very mobile as a result of chronic ankle issues but the sacks were there without sacrificing gap control.
Gore’s game last week was more of an indication to me how easy it is to run to the outside on Green Bay. Prior to that contest Gore had not gained more than 65 yards in a game on the outside since 2008. He is a patented between the tackles guy. It will be tough going to beat Stephen Tulloch, Jason Durant and company on the corner. You need a real burner and the confidence of leading with one of your lineman to do so. Taking an offensive lineman off the line against that Detroit front 4 might not be the thing to do.
The game is going to come down to the passing game strengths of each team. Who can operate their sets without much of a run game? That opinion clearly favors Detroit. They are not a run first operation. They do possess the personnel to beat a classic 3-4 but must be wary of the many different sets that the Niners will use. San Fran completely shocked the Pack last week with a 6 defensive back package that took Patrick Willis right off the field and had only two true linebackers as Aldon Smith lined up as a rush end. I can’t see that being successful against a two tight end (actually one tight end and an H Back in Tony Scheffler or Will Heller) set. Last meeting saw Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman more than capable of limiting the tight end/back position. I think we see a lot of shifting tomorrow to send Pettigrew wide forcing those linebackers into coverage, a double team on Calvin Johnson and some room underneath. Stephan Logan may see some action out of the backfield underneath coverage. He is an electrifying runner after catch.
Alex Smith to me is still a guy who manages a game better than wins it on his own. The addition of Moss certainly opened thing up against Green Bay but again Frank Gore won that game. The Lion secondary is still suspect Delmas and Houston doubtful again but an extra week now to get new acquisitions Drayton Florence and Kevin Barnes up to speed. They still have that front four to help soften that weakness.
The secondary of the Rams last week gave the Lions headaches by disguising their coverages and baiting Stafford into some very poor reads. Courtland Finnegan and Jeff Fisher are masters of that tactic. The Lions coaching staff figured them out and ran roughshod over the Rams in the 4th quarter. Unless I am missing something, the Niners coverage personnel will not be able to duplicate that effort. Not to say Stafford can’t find another way to get the ball to the wrong side and if he does my money will go with it. He did not throw a pick in last year’s matchup but did and will again face a very good pass rush. I look for Will Heller to be used more as a blocker than he was last meeting.
Although it is a stretch for me to say the Lions win outright, the new approach of that D-line and the availability of Fairley have me thinking this is a 3 or 4 point game at the most. 7 points is a bit much for me to digest at this point.
Good Luck this week as always gents!!!
1-0
Fukkin jinx myself posting plays here.
Having watched both of these teams’ openers several times now on tape, I have come to the conclusion that running the ball to set up the passing game is going to be very tough to do for either of these teams. There is no way the Lions run up the middle on Ike Sapoaga and absolutely no way they run outside on anyone with the personnel available, Kevin Smith is a cripple and just not capable.
The Niners beat the Lions last year in Detroit on the back of Frank Gore who ran between the tackles for two huge runs against a Lion defense hell bent on sacking Alex Smith and without Nick Fairley. That was a common theme last year for the Lion’s front 4, over pursuit and no Fairley, who was hobbled most of the year. Fairley was such a beast last week against the Ram’s front line that they simply stopped trying to run into it. Steven Jackson got nothing at all. The Lion’s line did a much better, even an excellent job of gap control and still managed to pressure the QB. The Rams O-Line was pretty beat up for much of the game and I don’t think Bradford is very mobile as a result of chronic ankle issues but the sacks were there without sacrificing gap control.
Gore’s game last week was more of an indication to me how easy it is to run to the outside on Green Bay. Prior to that contest Gore had not gained more than 65 yards in a game on the outside since 2008. He is a patented between the tackles guy. It will be tough going to beat Stephen Tulloch, Jason Durant and company on the corner. You need a real burner and the confidence of leading with one of your lineman to do so. Taking an offensive lineman off the line against that Detroit front 4 might not be the thing to do.
The game is going to come down to the passing game strengths of each team. Who can operate their sets without much of a run game? That opinion clearly favors Detroit. They are not a run first operation. They do possess the personnel to beat a classic 3-4 but must be wary of the many different sets that the Niners will use. San Fran completely shocked the Pack last week with a 6 defensive back package that took Patrick Willis right off the field and had only two true linebackers as Aldon Smith lined up as a rush end. I can’t see that being successful against a two tight end (actually one tight end and an H Back in Tony Scheffler or Will Heller) set. Last meeting saw Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman more than capable of limiting the tight end/back position. I think we see a lot of shifting tomorrow to send Pettigrew wide forcing those linebackers into coverage, a double team on Calvin Johnson and some room underneath. Stephan Logan may see some action out of the backfield underneath coverage. He is an electrifying runner after catch.
Alex Smith to me is still a guy who manages a game better than wins it on his own. The addition of Moss certainly opened thing up against Green Bay but again Frank Gore won that game. The Lion secondary is still suspect Delmas and Houston doubtful again but an extra week now to get new acquisitions Drayton Florence and Kevin Barnes up to speed. They still have that front four to help soften that weakness.
The secondary of the Rams last week gave the Lions headaches by disguising their coverages and baiting Stafford into some very poor reads. Courtland Finnegan and Jeff Fisher are masters of that tactic. The Lions coaching staff figured them out and ran roughshod over the Rams in the 4th quarter. Unless I am missing something, the Niners coverage personnel will not be able to duplicate that effort. Not to say Stafford can’t find another way to get the ball to the wrong side and if he does my money will go with it. He did not throw a pick in last year’s matchup but did and will again face a very good pass rush. I look for Will Heller to be used more as a blocker than he was last meeting.
Although it is a stretch for me to say the Lions win outright, the new approach of that D-line and the availability of Fairley have me thinking this is a 3 or 4 point game at the most. 7 points is a bit much for me to digest at this point.
Good Luck this week as always gents!!!
stafford, wise up and fukkin score.
