SBR Poker Championship: Odds to win

[4uk4life]

Lou, you coulda just not put up any lines

[ArunSh]

Not that I really care (I don't plan to bet on these), but if the oddsmakers really think I'm +1700 to win, that would mean that most places would set me up as probably around -3000 to -3500 to NOT win. How about putting up such a line (and a similar one for everyone else)? Somehow I doubt you will

[SBR Lou]

I've got a feeling we're already getting hammered by VegasVixen, so, putting up more props might spell disaster. Don't want us to start slow-paying do you? =)

[borednaz]

Vegas Vixen, to be among that group much less bet on by you is a honor. You really have what looks like what any logical person could assume would be the Final table assembled there. You can't cover all consistencies and not break even but the only 3 I don't see in your list who are solid are Beerdog,Ireland, and ArunSh.

So I think your fine. Gummo & 4uk will cash for sure. But they are both min cashers ; so very wise to leave them off.

[d2bets]

d2bets +2500 is free money.

[ArunSh]

Vegas Vixen, to be among that group much less bet on by you is a honor. You really have what looks like what any logical person could assume would be the Final table assembled there. You can't cover all consistencies and not break even but the only 3 I don't see in your list who are solid are Beerdog,Ireland, and ArunSh.

So I think your fine. Gummo & 4uk will cash for sure. But they are both min cashers ; so very wise to leave them off.

Thanks for the vote of confidence I'm just kind of bitter that SBR has set me up at such an unrealistic price that I'm pretty sure no one who really cares about their points (myself included!) would ever consider betting on me. I want fans darn it!

[wtt0315]

thanks vegas//
wont let you down

[GUMMO77]

Vegas Vixen, to be among that group much less bet on by you is a honor. You really have what looks like what any logical person could assume would be the Final table assembled there. You can't cover all consistencies and not break even but the only 3 I don't see in your list who are solid are Beerdog,Ireland, and ArunSh.

So I think your fine. Gummo & 4uk will cash for sure. But they are both min cashers ; so very wise to leave them off.

I would leave me off the list as well .. terrible odds, but min casher? .. come on bra, lol.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

I'm all in on myself

[4uk4life]

Vegas Vixen, to be among that group much less bet on by you is a honor. You really have what looks like what any logical person could assume would be the Final table assembled there. You can't cover all consistencies and not break even but the only 3 I don't see in your list who are solid are Beerdog,Ireland, and ArunSh.

So I think your fine. Gummo & 4uk will cash for sure. But they are both min cashers ; so very wise to leave them off.

You could only wish you cashed as much as Gummo and I have this year. I wonder if you could even count that high?

[tatddy]

I'm all in on myself

You better put all those points I gave you on yourself. No sprinkling them around.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

Thank you all for the pts!

[GUMMO77]

Leafy you playing fresh tomorrow or hungover or drunk?

[rjt721]

Any chance someone can fix my SBR book account? Hasn't worked in a month.

CrazyL, get on the case!

[borednaz]

You could only wish you cashed as much as Gummo and I have this year. I wonder if you could even count that high?

Further proving my min cashing analysis. .

[borednaz]

I would leave me off the list as well .. terrible odds, but min casher? .. come on bra, lol.

If it makes you feel better Gummo I believe you finish way ahead of 4uk. Right around 10th. 4uk will min cash in the 11-15th range.

[borednaz]

Thanks for the vote of confidence I'm just kind of bitter that SBR has set me up at such an unrealistic price that I'm pretty sure no one who really cares about their points (myself included!) would ever consider betting on me. I want fans darn it!

No kidding, they took the value right out of betting on you didn't they.

[4uk4life]

If it makes you feel better Gummo I believe you finish way ahead of 4uk. Right around 10th. 4uk will min cash in the 11-15th range.

If I had points to bet, I'd bet 75% of the field to outlast you

[borednaz]

If I had points to bet, I'd bet 75% of the field to outlast you

And I'd agree with you. Something you have to admit, it just depends on which bored shows up. If I'm peaceful & able to concentrate I'm going to bring it to the final table end of story. If my wife is in my ear & my kids driving me nuts I'll be min cashing for points.

Anyone can talk trash about me. But at the end of the day I didn't get here in this tourney the easy way;unlike you who min cashed his way to the final tourney I had to fight for mine pal .

[4uk4life]

And I'd agree with you. Something you have to admit, it just depends on which bored shows up. If I'm peaceful & able to concentrate I'm going to bring it to the final table end of story. If my wife is in my ear & my kids driving me nuts I'll be min cashing for points.

Anyone can talk trash about me. But at the end of the day I didn't get here in this tourney the easy way;unlike you who min cashed his way to the final tourney I had to fight for mine pal .

We've cluttered this thread enough. See this thread for validation(or not) to your theory : http://forum.sbrforum.com/poker/1892...rney-list.html

[ArunSh]

We've cluttered this thread enough. See this thread for validation(or not) to your theory : http://forum.sbrforum.com/poker/1892...rney-list.html

I really don't understand the purpose of that list - seems meaningless. If someone, when there are like, 21-23 people left decides to play completely crazy, generally resulting in them either building a huge stack or busting on bubble then that player would obviously have a ridiculously good "points per cash" ratio. Would that mean they are playing optimal poker? Of course not. So I don't see why that list is meaningful since having high points per cash is not really meaningful to a good overall tournament record.

[FuzzyDunlop]

If you're in the finals and don't have max points on yourself, you're an idiot.

[4uk4life]

If you're in the finals and don't have max points on yourself, you're an idiot.

I'm Idiot #1 then

[borednaz]

The list is just to small of a sample size to be prudent. There is also key factors left out because well it's information that is not available. It shows how much we average per cash but it doesn't show how many times we have cashed versus how many tournaments we entered. Which is really the only way to determine play style.

I kid 4uk a lot. But if you took his sample size let's say he played 100 tourneys & cashed 70 with an Average of 132. Well then given the prize structure we can see he MIN Cashes. He more than usually would get the 100 or less prize with a few 1-5ths sprinkled in. But even at a sample of 100 it's to small.

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

I'm Idiot #1 then

Don't sell yourself short... I'd say you're at least #'s 1-10.

[4uk4life]

The list is just to small of a sample size to be prudent. There is also key factors left out because well it's information that is not available. It shows how much we average per cash but it doesn't show how many times we have cashed versus how many tournaments we entered. Which is really the only way to determine play style.

I kid 4uk a lot. But if you took his sample size let's say he played 100 tourneys & cashed 70 with an Average of 132. Well then given the prize structure we can see he MIN Cashes. He more than usually would get the 100 or less prize with a few 1-5ths sprinkled in. But even at a sample of 100 it's to small.

I wish Lou was able to post the results of every tournament so we could end that argument.

[borednaz]

No need for more clutter . The only need now is to prepare. I wish all my competitors Luck. Not Andrew Luck though because that would be mean.

[JohnGalt2341]

If you're in the finals and don't have max points on yourself, you're an idiot.

I too am an idiot. If this were a Hexversi tournament I would bet everything I own on myself. But I'm aware of my Poker skills.. or lack there of. My best chance to win is if 85 computers crash.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

Ticket#:1653905 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 05:19 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [30] RYANLEAFOFBETS +3741	12.00 / 448.92
Ticket#:1653937 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 05:31 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [30] RYANLEAFOFBETS +3741	5.00 / 187.05
Ticket#:1654379 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 08:49 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [29] THE GIANT +3741	50.00 / 1870.50
Ticket#:1654383 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 08:52 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [30] RYANLEAFOFBETS +3741	230.00 / 8604.30
Ticket#:1654499 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 10:08 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [53] TATDDY +6268	48.00 / 3008.64
Ticket#:1654500 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 10:08 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [85] WIKKIDINISANE +8087	20.00 / 1617.40
Ticket#:1654501 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 10:08 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [86] TTWARRIOR1 +8289	20.00 / 1657.80

[borednaz]

Ticket#:1654501 Sep 15 05:00 PM

Internet / -1

Sep 14 10:08 PM

TNT

SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [86] TTWARRIOR1 +8289

20.00 / 1657.80

That's your winner..

[borednaz]

You know, I'm curious. How many of us are also going to play in the Beat the Prick Poker & The Newbie tourney while waiting on the main event.. That is the Odds I'd bet on..

[Told You So!]

72-1 so you're saying I have a chance...

[RyanLeafOfBets]

Ticket#:1653905 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 05:19 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [30] RYANLEAFOFBETS +3741	12.00 / 448.92
Ticket#:1653937 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 05:31 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [30] RYANLEAFOFBETS +3741	5.00 / 187.05
Ticket#:1654379 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 08:49 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [29] THE GIANT +3741	50.00 / 1870.50
Ticket#:1654383 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 08:52 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [30] RYANLEAFOFBETS +3741	230.00 / 8604.30
Ticket#:1654499 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 10:08 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [53] TATDDY +6268	48.00 / 3008.64
Ticket#:1654500 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 10:08 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [85] WIKKIDINISANE +8087	20.00 / 1617.40
Ticket#:1654501 Sep 15 05:00 PM	Internet / -1	Sep 14 10:08 PM	TNT	SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP: SAT SEPT 15, ODDS TO WIN [86] TTWARRIOR1 +8289	20.00 / 1657.80

P.S. The Giant was an accident... no offense pal, but we're both 3741 and did it on mobile

[borednaz]

LOL. Some how that just fits.. The Giant was an accident. Probably a conversation his parents don't want to have. JkJk Giant.

[GUMMO77]

If it makes you feel better Gummo I believe you finish way ahead of 4uk. Right around 10th. 4uk will min cash in the 11-15th range.

No problem, bud. If there was only some way I could prove to you that I've won 4 tournaments in the last month.