Line overreactions from Week 1

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  • k13
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-16-10
    • 18104

    #1
    Line overreactions from Week 1
    Packers were -7.5 vs Bears, opened -4.5 which moved to 5.5

    Bears looked great against a bunch of scrubs, while Packers looked like crap against a better physical team.
    Now you get a bargain on the Packers.

    Seahawks were -1.5 vs Dallas, opened +4, which is now +3

    Seahawks looked below average on the road as expected, well except for Bill Simmons who has them winning 12 games, Dallas beat the champs. So a 4+ point swing on perception.
    The average person cannot pass up Dallas here just like they could not pass up fading Arizona.

    Niners were -3.5 vs Detroit, opened -7, down to -6/-6.5

    Lions looked like against the Rams. Niners looking like Champs in Lambeau.
    Letdown game written all over it. If you like the Lions, you are getting 3 extra points.

    Washington vs St. Louis was a pk'em, opened -3 Wash.
    Redskins blew their loads against the Saints, Rams looked somewhat competent.
    Average person already thinks the -3 is LOW yet its inflated by 3 points to begin with.
    RG3 can only go down from Week 1.


    We'll monitor a few more as the week goes on.
  • dj_destroyer
    SBR MVP
    • 07-28-10
    • 3856

    #2
    Like your angles.
    Comment
    • thetrinity
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-25-11
      • 22430

      #3
      id be careful with packers, i do kinda like the rest of them though.
      Comment
      • djefferis
        SBR MVP
        • 08-16-08
        • 1205

        #4
        Packers scream square play -5', but will likely hit. 0-2 start would be tough to accept by that squad.

        Detroit is a steal right now. SF can shut down the run, but if they're defending 45+ pass plays, you can have success. I like Detroit's d vs SF and this should be a very even game. Getting points is a players best bet here.

        Dallas and Skins probably are rightly valued. Don't let early #s fool you, just as likely misjudged prior to week 1 as mispriced following (or a little of both).
        Comment
        • k13
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-16-10
          • 18104

          #5
          Originally posted by thetrinity
          id be careful with packers, i do kinda like the rest of them though.
          Too early for official plays but I do like the Packers to win.

          Was interested how much the lines would overreact to these games.
          The crazy one was Bills opening -7 vs Chiefs....
          Comment
          • Ghenghis Kahn
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 19734

            #6
            let down game? there won't be a let down in det vs sf.
            Comment
            • CanuckG
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-23-10
              • 21978

              #7
              Take Seattle.
              Comment
              • milwaukee mike
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 08-22-07
                • 26914

                #8
                canuckg i like your new avatar, that's a great song and it's on my spotify playlist
                Comment
                • Huego
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-23-11
                  • 265

                  #9
                  Anybody would be crazy to bet against the 49ers. They should dominate the game based on coaching alone.
                  Comment
                  • opie1988
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-12-10
                    • 23429

                    #10
                    k13 sharp as usual.

                    I totally agree on Dallas. No way you can take them at -3. If I could've gotten -1 or -1.5 I would've taken it.

                    But I didn't. I think they win, but no way I'd take -3 at Safeco. Difficult place to play.
                    Comment
                    • Ghenghis Kahn
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-02-12
                      • 19734

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Huego
                      Anybody would be crazy to bet against the 49ers. They should dominate the game based on coaching alone.
                      you are forgetting, detroit had the game virtually won last year and somehow sf pulled it off. also, you know what happened during the handshake. schwarts looks like the type that will hold a grudge...
                      Comment
                      • Azshadios
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 08-27-12
                        • 210

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn
                        you are forgetting, detroit had the game virtually won last year and somehow sf pulled it off. also, you know what happened during the handshake. schwarts looks like the type that will hold a grudge...
                        he can hold grudge but 49ner coach still better so 49ner all day
                        Comment
                        • Smoke
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-09-09
                          • 48111

                          #13
                          Lions is a gift

                          Game will be decided by a FG
                          Comment
                          • CanuckG
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-23-10
                            • 21978

                            #14
                            Originally posted by opie1988
                            k13 sharp as usual.

                            I totally agree on Dallas. No way you can take them at -3. If I could've gotten -1 or -1.5 I would've taken it.

                            But I didn't. I think they win, but no way I'd take -3 at Safeco. Difficult place to play.
                            At safeco? didnt know the cowboys were playing the Mariners. Is Romo pitching vs felix?
                            Comment
                            • No coincidences
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-18-10
                              • 76300

                              #15
                              Originally posted by CanuckG
                              At safeco? didnt know the cowboys were playing the Mariners. Is Romo pitching vs felix?
                              Dustin Ackley is the QB.
                              Comment
                              • k13
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-16-10
                                • 18104

                                #16
                                Originally posted by opie1988
                                k13 sharp as usual.

                                I totally agree on Dallas. No way you can take them at -3. If I could've gotten -1 or -1.5 I would've taken it.

                                But I didn't. I think they win, but no way I'd take -3 at Safeco. Difficult place to play.
                                Well Opie, from a fan perspective you want Dallas to close -3 to -4 and not below.
                                Seattle is not a good team but they win a lot of these types of games at home. Niners barely beat those schmucks last year.

                                If the game is in Dallas, line is -9/-10 and Seahawks get spanked again.

                                I don't blame someone for taking either side just know -3 is not a low line because there will be numerous threads all week ask why is dallas/washington "only" -3.
                                Comment
                                • borednaz
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-28-10
                                  • 3809

                                  #17
                                  I'm all over Dallas/Seattle O42 & Houston/Jacksonville o 41.5.. RG3 will take care of STL. That's not a week one performance thing, if you watch actual footage of the games you will see STL's horrible D against Detroit. RG3 will pick it apart.
                                  Comment
                                  • face
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-31-11
                                    • 14740

                                    #18
                                    steelers/jets game

                                    "jets are good, they just put up 48 points and smashed buffalo"
                                    "steelers are old, they could not stop broncos from marching down the field"

                                    sanchez will not get 5 seconds to look around for recievers. when he is forced to act quickly he is far less accurate.
                                    steelers will regroup under great coaching and dominate at home. just my opinion, and have awful nfl record so far. steelers -6
                                    Comment
                                    • Big Bear
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 11-01-11
                                      • 43253

                                      #19
                                      i like the Rams
                                      Comment
                                      • rm18
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 09-20-05
                                        • 22291

                                        #20
                                        no white person on earth is going to bet the Redskins than line is weird
                                        Comment
                                        • Louisvillekid1
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-17-07
                                          • 52143

                                          #21
                                          With you on these, lets take a look at some NCAAF overreactions now
                                          Comment
                                          • rm18
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 09-20-05
                                            • 22291

                                            #22
                                            Pitt in NCAA+ Western Michigan
                                            Comment
                                            • CrazyCarl
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-09-11
                                              • 1437

                                              #23
                                              Like them all except the Skins game.
                                              Comment
                                              • killawookie
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-25-09
                                                • 3457

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by borednaz
                                                I'm all over Dallas/Seattle O42 & Houston/Jacksonville o 41.5.. RG3 will take care of STL. That's not a week one performance thing, if you watch actual footage of the games you will see STL's horrible D against Detroit. RG3 will pick it apart.
                                                THANK YOU! Everyone is saying 'RG3 had beginners luck, a win vs. the Rams won't be as easy' Are you ******* kidding me? Other than pass rushing.. that is all the Rams have.
                                                Comment
                                                • HoulihansTX
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 02-12-09
                                                  • 30566

                                                  #25
                                                  Cowboys basically had a bye week, playing last Wednesday. huge advantage
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ChalkyDog
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 10-02-11
                                                    • 9598

                                                    #26
                                                    Backing a good team coming off a loss tends to lead to positive results.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • The Seer
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-29-07
                                                      • 10641

                                                      #27
                                                      I agree k13
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Madison
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-16-11
                                                        • 6452

                                                        #28
                                                        NE was the gift everyone missed. Played possum during PS. Did similar in 07. I'm here and I missed it.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • CrazyCarl
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-09-11
                                                          • 1437

                                                          #29
                                                          Edit:

                                                          NVM about my earlier post. I thought the Skins had home, and I was wrong.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • k13
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-16-10
                                                            • 18104

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by CrazyCarl
                                                            The line of Skins -3 presumes that the Rams are as good as the Skins.

                                                            I disagree with that.

                                                            I would place it at Skins -3 if Rex Grossman was the QB.
                                                            The -3 presumes the Skins are 6 points better than the Rams. St. Louis is at home.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ChalkyDog
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 10-02-11
                                                              • 9598

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by k13
                                                              The -3 presumes the Skins are 6 points better than the Rams. St. Louis is at home.
                                                              Assuming only a 3pt HFA.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HoulihansTX
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 02-12-09
                                                                • 30566

                                                                #32
                                                                Took Rams ML

                                                                Cowboys with the extra time off is not insignificant.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • PickWinnerAllDay
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-31-11
                                                                  • 12722

                                                                  #33
                                                                  9ers fan giddy about his win after Rodgers throws pass after pass after pass directly into 9ers players' hands.

                                                                  Then he trashes the Bears, who flat out dominated.

                                                                  Just a scope of the ignorance at SBR.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • CheeseHead
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 12-03-10
                                                                    • 439

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I'll be at the Packers/Bears game...would like to lay some money on GB but damn did the Bears offense good & GB defense look bad week 1. Not sure if I'll have any real $$ on a side..maybe do something with a total or look at props. I'm expecting a high scoring game...Packers should score more than 22 on the Bears. SF defense was just stellar on Sunday.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • PickWinnerAllDay
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-31-11
                                                                      • 12722

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by CheeseHead
                                                                      I'll be at the Packers/Bears game...would like to lay some money on GB but damn did the Bears offense good & GB defense look bad week 1. Not sure if I'll have any real $$ on a side..maybe do something with a total or look at props. I'm expecting a high scoring game...Packers should score more than 22 on the Bears. SF defense was just stellar on Sunday.
                                                                      The Bears are a better football team than the 49ers. But the Packers played their worst game possible and it is unlikely they do that against the Bears. So we'll see what happens. I'll be there too.
                                                                      Comment
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