One incredibly sharp football teaser

[Justin7]

Crazy, good luck with your teaser - I wish you the best. By why ya' gotta sabotage our readers? I like Lou Tech teaser though.

[SBR Lou]

Crazy, good luck with your teaser - I wish you the best. By why ya' gotta sabotage our readers? I like Lou Tech teaser though.

You mean how I sabotaged them with my opinion of USC on the road laying -42, which they won 69-0? A game that you saw very differently as well...

I guess I got lucky in the short run because I had a contrasting opinion...

[donjuan]

No need to be a blind sheep. Yes teasers can be very profitable, however, college football teasers aren't really intended for "WONG" teasers, and as such you are free to mess around with them some more.

Mess around with them more? NFL games fit better because the dispersion is less. There are +EV college teasers. This is not one of them. If you really think that Wyoming +36.5 is a good play at -263, then you should be betting them heavily at -30.5.

This play fits into a very high % situation that I'm not at liberty to discuss in depth since it's not my work, I just thought it'd be cool to exchange a teaser with everyone and hope someone would do the same.

Except it doesn't. You can hide behind it being someone else's work, but even if you just use the HPC (which overvalues numbers as you move further away from the spread), you get fair value at ±195.

[Justin7]

but even if you just use the HPC (which overvalues numbers as you move further away from the spread), you get fair value at ±195.

Bingo!

[blackNgoldjuice]

You had me until you mentioned Wyoming. Truly one of the 5 worst division 1 teams in the nation. Cannot move the ball and their D gets shredded. I know TCU will pry not show for this game, but still am never betting Wyoming.

[SBR Lou]

Bingo!

Nothing spells bingo quite like a 69-0 ass whipping where 3rd stringers are beating 1st stringers on the road..

If this teaser wins in similar blowout fashion will you pull the Houdini act again?

[durito]

Under 43 was the best bet on this game

[sickler]

who's
whose

[Matt Rain]

could of/would of
could've/would've

[durito]

Nothing spells bingo quite like a 69-0 ass whipping where 3rd stringers are beating 1st stringers on the road..

If this teaser wins in similar blowout fashion will you pull the Houdini act again?

This teaser winning has no bearing on whether or not it is +EV.

[SBR Lou]

This teaser winning has no bearing on whether or not it is +EV.

That's untrue, because it falls under a high % situation that you seem to be ignoring. So maybe publicly, it would not be a profitable play for guys that share the same databases and follow the same "rule of thumbs" with teasers. However, I'm operating with different knowledge on this particular event, which I felt was strong enough to post. So, for lack of a better way to continue this, let's just wait till the whistles sound and at least see how things play out, if for nothing other than giggles.

[laxdjock]

If my TT bets hit, I may put some money on Wyoming for entertainment...as what I've followed of CL says he is more right than wrong.

[durito]

Explain to me this high % situation that suddenly make those 6 particular points more valuable than they've ever been before.

[donjuan]

That's untrue, because it falls under a high % situation that you seem to be ignoring.

We have already established that it is far, far below the breakeven percentage if you haven't handicapped the game. If you have handicapped the game, the spread is a far better play. What is it about this game that makes the 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 and 36 so much more valuable than normal?

[laxdjock]

Explain to me this high % situation that suddenly make those 6 particular points more valuable than they've ever been before.

It sounds like he's going to wait until after the game. I'd chalk this up as him putting something out there, and people can use it if they want.

[laxdjock]

Wyoming is just that bad? I'm okay with that at 31ish. I like TCU, but they'll need to push over 40 to cover (Wyoming is around 8-10 pts a game), so those points may help, though I'm not sure beyond that.

[donjuan]

I'd chalk this up as him putting something out there, and people can use it if they want.

Or if you have the slightest hint of a brain, you can look at it and see it has ridiculous -EV.

[SBR Lou]

It sounds like he's going to wait until after the game. I'd chalk this up as him putting something out there, and people can use it if they want.

Win or lose I'm not giving away someones work in detail. I just thought it would be cool to post the teaser, and see if anyone else would come forward with a teaser they fancied for the weekend.

Good luck guys whether you play, fade, or completely stay away from this teaser.

[laxdjock]

Or if you have the slightest hint of a brain, you can look at it and see it has ridiculous -EV.

stop using logic and numbers!!!



Inside information can help me pick against #'s, though then it goes back to why a person wouldn't just take the spread.....that I'm not sure about.

[jtuck]

I think its funny how you can be told over and over that this is a bad bet by people much smarter than you and all you come back with is "It's a high percent situation, and I hit Indy and USC." What about your other "Sharp" plays, like **broken link**,
or http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...s-tonight.html, or one of my favorites http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...een-while.html.

So you can stop talking about the two winners you've posted as a defense for you here, and if this hits then it's simply luck, and calling this "Sharp" is pretty much false advertising to those who try to read the forums and learn something from it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Does sharp mean the device you wish to impale yourself on if you took this? Sorry, couldn't resist.

[SBR Lou]

Does sharp mean the device you wish to impale yourself on if you took this? Sorry, couldn't resist.

OK, I'll man up and eat some crow.

Try to get 'em next time, resume potshots starting 5-4-3-2-....

[donjuan]

You shouldn't eat crow because it lost. You should eat crow because the logic behind the bet was so absurd.

[MrX]

Durito:

weather
whether

weary
wary

[Panic]

Who here hasnt eaten crow? Let me know which one of you fvcks bats a 1000.

[SBR Lou]

Who here hasnt eaten crow? Let me know which one of you fvcks bats a 1000.

Nice to see someone has my back. Thought I'd have to call in air support.

[pavyracer]

Durito:

weather
whether

weary
wary

[MonkeyF0cker]

He should have been eating crow before the teaser lost. The loss has nothing to do with it. Instead, he chose to debate it. It's a shame that people on this site would rather defend their ignorance than seek advice. There are people here who can and ARE trying to help you. Instead, you get defensive and proclaim your "sharp" skills. Get some humility and learn. Do you want to make money or not?

[pimike]

He should have been eating crow before the teaser lost. The loss has nothing to do with it. Instead, he chose to debate it. It's a shame that people on this site would rather defend their ignorance than seek advice. There are people here who can and ARE trying to help you. Instead, you get defensive and proclaim your "sharp" skills. Get some humility and learn. Do you want to make money or not?

Exactly and well put

[donjuan]

Who here hasnt eaten crow? Let me know which one of you fvcks bats a 1000.

Improve your reading comprehension.

[Panic]

We all boast from time to time. Hell, I put on page 1 of this thread..that Wyoming was a bad bet. Doesnt matter. We have all been there. Why come after the guy? We are all here for the same reason.

[laxdjock]

Who here hasnt eaten crow? Let me know which one of you fvcks bats a 1000.

I went 9-1, so I was close!!!
(I never go 9-1, so don't follow my picks, as I'm typically in the low 60%'s, like most people who muddle along).

[Panic]

Improve your reading comprehension.

Donny, shut the fvck up. You act smart, but really are a fvckin follower. If Gaunch ever came to a sudden stop...your nose would go half way up his ass.

[donjuan]

We are all here for the same reason.

Highly doubtful.

[Panic]

Highly doubtful.

Donny, do you have any money? I'll call you out right now. We can find out. Wanna do this?