Your NFL Power Rankings?

[l7ustin]

...And the DVOA for the Skins is 5.

[SBR Lou]

...And the DVOA for the Skins is 5.

Kind of proves the point.

[ryanXL977]

giants
tampa
tennessee
steelers
jax

[l7ustin]

What are yall going to say when Dallas beats Tampa this week, they are not top 5.

[atlsportsfan]

1. Tenn (still undefeated easy pick)
2. G-men
3. Steelers
4. My Atlanta Falcons: OK OK just kidding .
Eagles (dangerous team)
5. Tie The Tampa Bay Bucs/Carolina Panthers

[durito]

Kind of proves the point.

What point would that be?

[McBa1n]

1. Titans
2. Giants
3. Steelers
4. Bucs
5. Bills

Winner top 5

Dallas can't be in the top 5 - not right now. If they get their stuff together and get their QB back, then yeah - you can talk about them.

I think you have to talk about Tampa being a top 5 team right now. I think their defense is not as good as advertised, however, their offense has been a real treat to watch week in/week out. They're one of the more underrated teams in the league, although, betting shops have picked up on it and adjusted lines accordingly recently.

Buffalo, as a team, plays as hard as any team I've seen in the NFL in the past couple of seasons. On paper? they're mediocre at best. On tape - they play hard every play, play over their heads every week (save the Arizona game) and work as hard as anyone in the league. Not to mention Edwards is really establishing himself as a legitimate starter. They have the tools to win playoff games - and right now I think they're missing their 2 most important guys Terrence McGee and Roscoe Parrish. Why, you say? Have you ever watched the Bills special teams? Second to none - and those 2 guys are guarenteed to give the Bills either a score or 2-3 shots at great field position every week (when healthy) - which is going to be critical down the stretch if both can get back. I'm amazed at how well the Bills are doing without their 2 special teams studs...

The top 3 speak for themselves, really.
I don't see how anyone can be higher than Tennessee right now. They're balanced all over the field with suspect receivers (if they're even healthy) - yet they move the ball when they need to. Their running attack - is exactly that - an attack, it's a treat to watch. Defense, though, is the real reason the Titans are the team to beat right now - it's hard to find a more productive defensive front 4 than that, although Minnesota will take exception to that statement. The Titans D line just makes plays... And then the secondary is mopping up the rest better than anyone right now.

Pitts is kind of an enigma to me, though. They're about as well coached/gameplanned as any of the best teams in the league - but they just find ways to make teams pay. I don't know how else to explain it. They have that something something that makes good teams great.

I dont have much to say about the Giants, but if Burress continues to be a problem, I'm not sure they can compete. With him, their offense is unstoppable - without, they run the football really really well. I'm a bit worried about their defense down the stretch. If they keep getting great Dline production, they are the best team in the NFC.

[R3Sports]

Good post dude!

[slacker00]

1. Titans
2. Giants
3. Steelers
4. Bucs
5. Bills

This is my top 10, except I'll bump the Bills down to #7 beneath San Diego at #5 and New England at #6. The Bills are good, but the Chargers & Pats are tough as nails and battle tested. Expect these guys to hang tough while teams like the Bills might falter.

[moneyline]

Big Ben
Eli
Rivers

That is the order of the draft class QB's ... Ben has been the class of it ... has everyone forgotten how badly Eli has played his entire career before his playoff run last year ... he has the accuracy of a off-sight shotgun.

[R3Sports]

Cutler?

[dwaechte]

Cutler?

Wasn't in that class.

[Dark Horse]

I don't really use power rankings a lot for football, but may pay more attention to them. I did the following list off the top of my head, backtested it against week 7, added a formula (so that week 7 went 8-3 ATS), then backtested weeks 6 and 5 (without more adjusting) for a combined 24-7 ATS record over those three weeks.


Group 1
PIT
TEN
NYG

Group 2
TB
GB
SD
CAR

Group 3
PHI
JAX
BUF
WAS

Group 4
DAL
NO
IND
ARI

Group 5
NE
ATL
DEN
CHI

Group 6
MIN
BAL
HOU
MIA

Group 7
NYJ
STL
CLE
SF

Group 8
OAK
DET
CIN
SEA
KC

[Kingctb27]

Titans are #1. Nothing else even matters.

[I.R.B]

1. Titans
2. Steelers
3. Giants
4. Bills
5. Bucs

[THEGREAT30]

Giants
Titans
Redskins
Steelers
Bills

They are the only teams that have shown to be anything close to dominant at anytime during this season in my opinion.

Dallas is just to banged up and it may be too late when they get back right.

[LT Profits]

I don't really use power rankings a lot for football, but may pay more attention to them. I did the following list off the top of my head, backtested it against week 7, added a formula (so that week 7 went 8-3 ATS), then backtested weeks 6 and 5 (without more adjusting) for a combined 24-7 ATS record over those three weeks.


Group 1
PIT
TEN
NYG

Group 2
TB
GB
SD
CAR

Group 3
PHI
JAX
BUF
WAS

Group 4
DAL
NO
IND
ARI

Group 5
NE
ATL
DEN
CHI

Group 6
MIN
BAL
HOU
MIA

Group 7
NYJ
STL
CLE
SF

Group 8
OAK
DET
CIN
SEA
KC

I LIKE IT! Except that I would flip-flop Buffalo and San Diego. I feel that the Chargers will continue to underperform all year and that the Bills are legitimate as long as Edwards stays healthy.

[LT Profits]

FWIW, the Giants would be a 1.5-point favorite over Tennessee on a neutral field.

[4Eigner]

Titons
Buffalo
Tampa
Washington
NY Giants

[McBa1n]

I don't really use power rankings a lot for football, but may pay more attention to them. I did the following list off the top of my head, backtested it against week 7, added a formula (so that week 7 went 8-3 ATS), then backtested weeks 6 and 5 (without more adjusting) for a combined 24-7 ATS record over those three weeks.


Group 1
PIT
TEN
NYG

Group 2
TB
GB
SD
CAR

Group 3
PHI
JAX
BUF
WAS

Group 4
DAL
NO
IND
ARI

Group 5
NE
ATL
DEN
CHI

Group 6
MIN
BAL
HOU
MIA

Group 7
NYJ
STL
CLE
SF

Group 8
OAK
DET
CIN
SEA
KC

Funny - cool methodology, though... I love it. Some of your groupings I disagree with, but then again - if I came up with power rankings off the top of my head, with similar grouping structure, somehow I'd be 7-24 haha. Nice job, man.

[eidolon]

i have new england at 17

same here: somewhere around 16-18

[eidolon]

1)Titans
2)Giants
3)Buccaneers
4)Steelers
5)Bears
6)Cards
7)Bills
8)Packers
9)Panthers
10)Eagles

(Cowboys and Chargers could be 9/10. But Chargers are way too inconsistent, and Cowboys don't have Romo).

[Dark Horse]

Funny - cool methodology, though... I love it. Some of your groupings I disagree with, but then again - if I came up with power rankings off the top of my head, with similar grouping structure, somehow I'd be 7-24 haha. Nice job, man.

Thanks. I use power rankings in big soccer tournaments, but never thought about them seriously for the NFL.

For matchups I moved the home team one group up, and then used different criteria for how many groups the team needs to be better -or worse- than the opponent, depending on different spread sets. Just an initial outline.

The result was actually 25-8, and without week 7 which was used to tweak, that would be 17-5. However, these power ratings are based on past performance. So past results are already build into them. That seriously undermines their meaningfulness.

[McBa1n]

Yeah, but any angle extra to find an edge is always a good one, maybe.
The NFL is notorious for things changing on one snap - and that can happen in say 5 out 6 games - then it's all out the window. It's guarenteed to happen, there's always a couple 'freakshow' weeks in the NFL.

I have followed your power rankings previously when you post them - it gave me things to think about in terms of me handicapping - and while I don't exactly use groupings or that methodolgy per se, your rankings were an influence to me to devise something that can handle more deviation (at least in the NFL). I'm barely over .500 on sides and totals after 7 weeks, so it's holding up somewhat better than any other methodology I've used (it's consistent, at least - though very imperfect)... And it requires 'regrouping' week to week, like in your case, but with different numbers to base those opinions.

Funny, though - devising a method to sort through the chaos, but I do think some of your earlier posts really were a strong influence in my approach in looking for edges. Of course the biggest flaw I'm finding is playing the system a bit more than pushing better edges more strongly... Afterall, the goal is to get paid off in the end.

That all said, I thank you for posting the things you do - although simplistic as it seems at first, once you get into making quality rankings is where you find all your time ends up going - that's the hard part, but the methodology is strong.

[l7ustin]

Still all over the Buccaneers? They lost to the Cowboys without Tony Romo, Terrance Newman, Pacman Jones, Henry, Roy Williams, etc etc etc

[SBR Lou]

Any of the standings change to you gentlemen over this weekends action?

[slacker00]

Still all over the Buccaneers? They lost to the Cowboys without Tony Romo, Terrance Newman, Pacman Jones, Henry, Roy Williams, etc etc etc

Those guys are all bums except Romo. When Romo comes back, this team might be dangerous. Maybe even if Romo doesn't come back.

If Dallas plays D like that from here on out, I don't know how they get beat. That was a different team on Sunday. I almost wonder if it's one of those addition by subtraction deals, getting rid of Pacman and those bums let some young guys play.

Anyway, here's my new list:
1. Dallas
2. Everyone else

[rm18]

Those guys are all bums except Romo. When Romo comes back, this team might be dangerous. Maybe even if Romo doesn't come back.

If Dallas plays D like that from here on out, I don't know how they get beat. That was a different team on Sunday. I almost wonder if it's one of those addition by subtraction deals, getting rid of Pacman and those bums let some young guys play.

Anyway, here's my new list:
1. Dallas
2. Everyone else

Even if they were bums which I disagree, 3 of those guys play corner, that is extremely significant

[l7ustin]

1. Giants
2. Titans
3. Steelers
4. Bills
5. Redskins
6. Bears
7. Packers
8. Buccs
9. Broncs
10. Panthers
11. Eagles
12. Cowboys
19. Patriots

1. Giants
2. Titans
3. Steelers
4. Redskins
5. Bills
6. Panthers
7. Bears
8. Packers
9. Saints
10. Bucs
11. Eagles
12. Cards
13. Broncs
14. Cowboys
17. Patriots
19. Colts

[THEGREAT30]

Any of the standings change to you gentlemen over this weekends action?

No, I still have it the same

1. Giants
2. Titans
3. Redskins
4. Steelers
5. Bills

P.S. Im really liking how the Saints are fighting through injuries though. One more bad loss by the Bills and the Saints replace them.

[l7ustin]

1. Giants
2. Titans
3. Steelers
4. Redskins
5. Bills
6. Panthers
7. Bears
8. Packers
9. Saints
10. Bucs
11. Eagles
12. Cards
13. Broncs
14. Cowboys
17. Patriots
19. Colts

1. Giants
2. Titans
3. Steelers
4. Redskins
5. Panthers
6. Bears
7. Packers
8. Saints
9. Eagles
10. Cards
11. Bills
12. Falcons
13. Ravens
14. Cowboys
17. Patriots
21. Colts
22. Broncos