Looking for General Answers

[ferrari355spider]

Hey guys, I am seriously considering starting to put big money on sports wagering. Looking for someone to consult me on the ins and outs of this business. I am not looking for pick help at this moment but just have general questions. I have no problem throwing a few bones via paypal or something for the help. If you have MSN it would be a plus. Feel free to PM me. Thanks.

PS: Great site.

[topgame85]

If your using Big money The Greek is the way to go IMO, welcome

[savannah swine]

jj will help you

[ferrari355spider]

Thanks for the reply. What is considered big money on the internet, is $10,000 per game considered big?

[savannah swine]

lmao 10000.00 a game. you dont have 10 Gs in your retirment

[ferrari355spider]

Sorry?

[topgame85]

You would probably have a tough time finding 10k limits 5k for fb is more reasonable

[Mudcat]

I believe the limits go to 20K for an NFL side and 10K for NCAAF at WSEX. About the same at Bookmaker/DSI.

You didn't say where you live. Pinnacle would be a "must-have" out if you're outside the US.

Matchbook - also a must for a serious player.



I could go on a bit but it all depends what exactly you want to bet on and where you are.

[dwaechte]

What type of advice are you looking for?

[ferrari355spider]

I am from Ottawa (Canada) and was told Pinnacle is the best so I registered an account there. Not really sure what makes them the best?

I guess the first question I have is if I were to find a handicapper that is consistant @ 60% on the spread (assume this to be the only variable but let's say it's a fact). If I were to bet let's say 200 games per year @ $10,000 with the average juice being -1.10. I would win 120 games and loose 80 games. On the 120 games I won I would win $1,200,000 and on the 80 games I would loose $880,000 ($10,000 x 1.10 x 80) + lets say $10,000 for a good handicapper ($50 per pick @ 200 games) I would be left with a yearly profit of $310,000. Am I missing something?

[accuscoresucks]

jj is the coach

more plays than the cleveland offense

[bettilimbroke999]

Thanks for the reply. What is considered big money on the internet, is $10,000 per game considered big?

10k is peanuts, I slam the board for 200k a game and they won't even respond to my emails

[LT Profits]

I am from Ottawa (Canada) and was told Pinnacle is the best so I registered an account there. Not really sure what makes them the best?

I guess the first question I have is if I were to find a handicapper that is consistant @ 60% on the spread (assume this to be the only variable but let's say it's a fact). If I were to bet let's say 200 games per year @ $10,000 with the average juice being -1.10. I would win 120 games and loose 80 games. On the 120 games I won I would win $1,200,000 and on the 80 games I would loose $880,000 ($10,000 x 1.10 x 80) + lets say $10,000 for a good handicapper ($50 per pick @ 200 games) I would be left with a yearly profit of $310,000. Am I missing something?

Yes, the fact that 60% is impossible in the long run. The best handicappers in the world are quite content with 54% or 55%.

[firedawg]

Yes, the fact that 60% is impossible in the long run. The best handicappers in the world are quite content with 54% or 55%.

Lt. that isnt true

[LT Profits]

I am talking stictly ATS and Totals, not Money Lines.

[firedawg]

so am i

[accuscoresucks]

I am from Ottawa (Canada) and was told Pinnacle is the best so I registered an account there. Not really sure what makes them the best?

I guess the first question I have is if I were to find a handicapper that is consistant @ 60% on the spread (assume this to be the only variable but let's say it's a fact). If I were to bet let's say 200 games per year @ $10,000 with the average juice being -1.10. I would win 120 games and loose 80 games. On the 120 games I won I would win $1,200,000 and on the 80 games I would loose $880,000 ($10,000 x 1.10 x 80) + lets say $10,000 for a good handicapper ($50 per pick @ 200 games) I would be left with a yearly profit of $310,000. Am I missing something?

200 bets a year

i average 2200-3000 investments a year

average investment= 125$

avg return on bottom line 5%-13% per year

[ferrari355spider]

60% seems to be the average on verified handicapper tracking sites like:

trackpicks.com
handicappingpolice.com

unless they are a sham?

I mean I am new to the game but these guys charge upwards of a $100 per pick to only be right 4% more than a 50/50 coin flip.

[Justin7]

I am from Ottawa (Canada) and was told Pinnacle is the best so I registered an account there. Not really sure what makes them the best?

I guess the first question I have is if I were to find a handicapper that is consistant @ 60% on the spread (assume this to be the only variable but let's say it's a fact). If I were to bet let's say 200 games per year @ $10,000 with the average juice being -1.10. I would win 120 games and loose 80 games. On the 120 games I won I would win $1,200,000 and on the 80 games I would loose $880,000 ($10,000 x 1.10 x 80) + lets say $10,000 for a good handicapper ($50 per pick @ 200 games) I would be left with a yearly profit of $310,000. Am I missing something?

There's no such thing as free money. If you think making money this way is easy, you're kidding yourself.

The ones who make money at this do a LOT of work, and don't share the good stuff with other people. Anyone willing to share their selections with you is probably free-rolling you. Don't get screwed by scamdicappers.

[daggerkobe]

What happened to that dude who said he made six figures winning at 70% and wanted to move to Vegas to open a sports investment company?

Would be perfect match for this guy.

[donjuan]

Yes, the fact that 60% is impossible in the long run. The best handicappers in the world are quite content with 54% or 55%.

Well, you could hit 60% long run but you'd be an idiot to because you'd be passing up a lot of really good plays.

[accuscoresucks]

if you follow any so-called handicapper,model analizer,ect,ect

and you look in depth into every angle of that persond picks,after 100 picks or so you will have the honey,golden formula of how that individual comes to certain conclutions on games/picks hence then you can take that wrench,and add it to your toolbox,and the next 100 hence even another tool,after enough tools are had you have a large enough tool box to build your own house

papaer trading for a while is what i learned is the best way,i have always had a tuff time getting my ball sack out on bets even after doing that[pulling the trigger],and having the proper bankroll


then be warned alot of people out their just have no clue,that will be revealed offcourse after 100 bets if you have not graduated their secret forumla.

[ferrari355spider]

What do you mean by that DanJaun

[Mudcat]

All this discussion about win percentages and scamdicappers is true. So that is a minus of the plan.

On the plus side, he based his estimate on -110 which is a ridiculous figure from the distant past that he would have no reason to pay. So in that sense, his plan was an underestimation.

Okay, okay - the problem with finding winning picks is much more significant but I'm just saying.

[donjuan]

I mean you could hit 60% but if you're able to identify 60% plays you should be able to identify 55% plays as well. If your goal is to make as much money as possible, you bet the 55% plays as well, which brings your win % down. And if you have any understanding of how sports betting works, you'll understand that 55% plays come along much more often than 60% plays and 53% plays come along even more often than 55% plays.

[ferrari355spider]

Mudcat, do you have justification that the top handicappers who are verified are not hitting roughly 60%? Also, what is the average juice now a days?

DonJaun, what I mean is if I pick 200 games I will get 60% of them right and 40% wrong, so I am not sure what you mean.

[LT Profits]

Well, you could hit 60% long run but you'd be an idiot to because you'd be passing up a lot of really good plays.

Well maybe over one year, but as the years go by and the total number of bets increases, I'd say it would be impossible to maintain over a lifetime (or even 1500 plays for that matter).

[donjuan]

DonJaun, what I mean is if I pick 200 games I will get 60% of them right and 40% wrong, so I am not sure what you mean.

Based on what, exactly?

[donjuan]

Well maybe over one year, but as the years go by and the total number of bets increases, I'd say it would be impossible to maintain over a lifetime (or even 1500 plays for that matter).

If 60% chances exist and you only bet 60% or better chances, you will hit 60% long run. That's what I was trying to say before. I probably didn't elucidate my thoughts very well.

[LT Profits]

Well my contention would be that there are very few 60% chances per season, unless you play at the squarest of books, and your lifeline there would not be long.

[ferrari355spider]

Ok anyways, guys like I said, let's say somehow someway I can go 60%... are my numbers correct? am I missing something? I even overinflated the juice...

[donjuan]

Mudcat, do you have justification that the top handicappers who are verified are not hitting roughly 60%? Also, what is the average juice now a days?

If they are "documented" hitting 60% ATS, either

a) they are very lucky
b) they are lying
or
c) you aren't getting the same numbers as them which means you won't have their win % and the numbers may have moved to the point that they aren't profitable at all, much less 60%.

[SBR Lou]

If they are "documented" hitting 60% ATS, either

a) they are very lucky
b) they are lying
or
c) you aren't getting the same numbers as them which means you won't have their win % and the numbers may have moved to the point that they aren't profitable at all, much less 60%.

What about Dr Bob's college plays? Believe he's only had one losing year in a while. A lot of sharps even subscribe to him.

[donjuan]

Ok anyways, guys like I said, let's say somehow someway I can go 60%... are my numbers correct? am I missing something? I even overinflated the juice...

Your numbers are wrong because your expected win rate will not be 60% betting 200 games a year (in football presumably), especially if you are trying to bet 10k/game.

[donjuan]

What about Dr Bob's college plays? Believe he's only had one losing year in a while. A lot of sharps even subscribe to him.

Dr. Bob has run at, what, 57% (maybe less after last year)? Lines move significantly immediately after his plays are released. Do you see where he fits into that list?