Texas Rangers -117 over L.A. Angels is my play of the evening.

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65641

    #1
    Texas Rangers -117 over L.A. Angels is my play of the evening.
    Geeked for this game.

    First off, you can not argue 284 plate appearance sample size.
    I know there are a few of you out there that disagree with pitcher versus hitter past history result, but how can you ignore or neglect this.


    Adrian Beltre 63 56 24 7 1 3 11 7 11 .429 .492 .750 1.242 0 0 1 0 0
    Michael Young 58 55 18 3 0 1 11 2 9 .327 .345 .436 .781 0 1 0 0 3
    Ian Kinsler 36 33 8 3 0 0 0 3 6 .242 .306 .333 .639 0 0 0 0 1
    Elvis Andrus 27 24 9 2 0 0 1 0 3 .375 .400 .458 .858 2 0 0 1 0
    David Murphy 23 22 9 1 0 2 7 1 3 .409 .435 .727 1.162 0 0 0 0 0
    Yorvit Torrealba 21 19 3 2 0 0 1 0 5 .158 .200 .263 .463 1 0 0 1 0
    Josh Hamilton 19 18 6 1 0 1 3 1 3 .333 .368 .556 .924 0 0 0 0 0
    Mike Napoli 19 17 4 0 0 0 1 2 5 .235 .316 .235 .551 0 0 0 0 0
    Nelson Cruz 15 14 5 1 0 1 3 1 1 .357 .400 .643 1.043 0 0 0 0 0
    Alberto Gonzalez 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 1 0 0 0
    Total 284 260 86 20 1 8 39 17 46 .331 .374 .508 .881 3 2 1 2 4
    Haren is 6 and 8 with a 4.86 ERA with a crappy 1.41 WH/IP ratio this year.
    He's regressed from an ace starter to a mediocre starter. He (like Beckett for instance) is a shell of what he once was.

    Rangers bats have own Haren in the past. (see above chart)
    Texas is an outstanding road team at 27 and 21.
    Texas leads the American league in batting average and on base percentage.
    Texas loves to face right handed starters. They are 17-5 against righties in their last 22.
    (you can argue LAA is 11-1 in their last 12 against a lefty starter too, but this is a solid starter in Harrison)
    Texas smacks mediocre right handed pitching very hard.
    Texas has won 11 out of 12 when Harrison starts on the road as a favorite.

    Let's talk about Harrison.
    He's coming off a complete game 5 hit shutout.
    He looks as good as any left handed starter in the game right now.

    He's 12-4 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.23 WH/IP ratio. Those are across the board rock solid numbers.
    The current Angel line up is 25 for 113 lifetime vs the lefty .(214)

    On paper, Texas the clear play here.
    I'm not going large though, just 2*.
    Few reasons, even though Texas is the better match up, Angels have sticks that can make a 2-0 deficit into a 2-2 tie with a Harrison mistake (Trout, Pujols, Trumbo)

    Is Texas a lock here? No. (no such thing as a lock anyway)
    Is Haren capable of turning back the clock and throw a 7 inning gem? Yes
    And LAA is at home.
    Those three reasons is why I am not going gaga over this play.

    But, Texas can rake with the best of them, as a matter of fact, only team that stacks up to them is NYY.
    Harrison is clearly the better starter here, and Texas line up is built to punish right handed pitchers like Haren.

    You don't have to tail, fade if you want it's all good, but........

    I'm on Texas -117 2*
  • brahmabull117
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-08-10
    • 8622

    #2
    ...
    Comment
    • brahmabull117
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-08-10
      • 8622

      #3
      agreed 100% - good value in Rangers RL + 135 too
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        You have Lang, Landers and brahma behind you steve.

        Good luck with that.
        Comment
        • brahmabull117
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-08-10
          • 8622

          #5
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          You have Lang, Landers and brahma behind you steve.

          Good luck with that.

          12-0 last 12 games boss, what's your current streak at?
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            Originally posted by brahmabull117
            12-0 last 12 games boss, what's your current streak at?
            You are in no position to talk shit to any other poster again. Ever.
            Comment
            • a4u2fear
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-29-10
              • 8147

              #7
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65641

                #8
                Originally posted by No coincidences
                You have Lang, Landers and brahma behind you steve.

                Good luck with that.
                I'm buried
                Comment
                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #9
                  Originally posted by stevenash
                  I'm buried
                  Rangers are the right play in theory, but I wonder why they opened at +102 here.
                  Comment
                  • brahmabull117
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 8622

                    #10
                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                    You are in no position to talk shit to any other poster again. Ever.

                    I was at 54% at my worst time on my brahmabull spreadsheet - now I'm at 62% on my new spreadsheet


                    Your current record in your own thread - 307 - 323




                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by brahmabull117
                      I was at 54% at my worst time on my brahmabull spreadsheet - now I'm at 62% on my new spreadsheet


                      Your current record in your own thread - 307 - 323




                      And you delete plays left and right.
                      Comment
                      • cpay
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-02-12
                        • 541

                        #12
                        no agree 100%
                        Comment
                        • brahmabull117
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 8622

                          #13
                          Originally posted by No coincidences
                          And you delete plays left and right.

                          Count my 3 deletes as losses if you like in my new spreadsheet and I'm still way way ahead of you



                          Hell I could pick at a better percentage than you flipping a coin you douchebag
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #14
                            Originally posted by brahmabull117
                            Count my 3 deletes as losses if you like in my new spreadsheet and I'm still way way ahead of you



                            Hell I could pick at a better percentage than you flipping a coin you douchebag
                            And what about your old deletes? I'm sure you won those, right?

                            It's not about picking at a "better percentage" moron. I see you still haven't learned anything.
                            Comment
                            • zoo youk
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-23-11
                              • 10701

                              #15
                              man. hard to argue against those numbers. especially with how shitty Haren is pitching this year.
                              Comment
                              • brahmabull117
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 8622

                                #16
                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                It's not about picking at a "better percentage" moron. I see you still haven't learned anything.

                                Is it about going 307-323 and being down like 25 units in your own season thread?


                                Keep imparting your wisdom on us oh wise one



                                A blind chimpanzee could pick games better than you
                                Comment
                                • ridims
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-15-10
                                  • 3863

                                  #17
                                  sorry steve. gotta go with my gut and take the angels.
                                  haren throws a gem tonight just watch
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65641

                                    #18
                                    OK, let's not turn Nash's thread into a steel cage match between No Coin and the Bull.
                                    (that would be a hell of a steel cage match though)
                                    Comment
                                    • stevenash
                                      Moderator
                                      • 01-17-11
                                      • 65641

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ridims
                                      sorry steve. gotta go with my gut and take the angels.
                                      haren throws a gem tonight just watch
                                      Could happen, I gotta go with the Chuck Norris's here though.
                                      Comment
                                      • Linngari
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 03-28-12
                                        • 213

                                        #20
                                        I'm all in on the Angels tonight. I can't pass up a home dog on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball that has a certain Albert Pujols in the lineup.
                                        Comment
                                        • Vinnie Paz
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 03-27-12
                                          • 12177

                                          #21
                                          @ Brahma. Guy kills me. Glad youse back
                                          took texas -101 last night
                                          Possible play on TT over but dont wanna push it, had a solid day, might just fall back and let my ML bet ride.
                                          GL GENTS !
                                          Comment
                                          • opie1988
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 09-12-10
                                            • 23429

                                            #22
                                            Absolute fukkin winner you got here, Stevie! Good job, pal.

                                            I've said all along the rangers would take 2 of 3 in Anaheim. No way they were beating Weaver. No one can right now. They have a 4 gamer against them coming up down here, and I think they take 3 of 4.

                                            5-2 will basically seal the deal.
                                            Comment
                                            • Madison
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-16-11
                                              • 6455

                                              #23
                                              OK, I'm in early on Tex -105. I'm either -100 or +800 on various bets. I guess I should hedge for 200/300?

                                              Yeah I know ... but that's why I'm still here after 40 yrs doin this shit.
                                              Comment
                                              • You mad bro
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-15-12
                                                • 16641

                                                #24
                                                Brandon Lang is on Texas .. Games over before it even started
                                                Comment
                                                • You mad bro
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-15-12
                                                  • 16641

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                  And what about your old deletes? I'm sure you won those, right?

                                                  It's not about picking at a "better percentage" moron. I see you still haven't learned anything.

                                                  Fail
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PickWinnerAllDay
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-31-11
                                                    • 12722

                                                    #26
                                                    Haren looks god awful... so it'd be embarrassing if the Rangers didn't shell him at some point.

                                                    88 MPH straight fastball and has no control over it...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JR007
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-21-10
                                                      • 5279

                                                      #27
                                                      nice stats...with you on this..... LAA tt -149......under
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevenash
                                                        Moderator
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 65641

                                                        #28
                                                        Trout's a beast
                                                        Comment
                                                        • PickWinnerAllDay
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-31-11
                                                          • 12722

                                                          #29
                                                          The plays that make the most sense seem to get shit on the earliest. Rangers can't hit Haren and his college caliber fastball and Angels pouncing on Harrison early.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • You mad bro
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-15-12
                                                            • 16641

                                                            #30
                                                            Told you games over already

                                                            Trout is unstoppable
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 19th Hole
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 03-22-09
                                                              • 18954

                                                              #31
                                                              Good Luck Mr. Nash
                                                              Comment
                                                              • You mad bro
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-15-12
                                                                • 16641

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay
                                                                Haren looks god awful... so it'd be embarrassing if the Rangers didn't shell him at some point.

                                                                88 MPH straight fastball and has no control over it...
                                                                Been like that all season .... Feel bad for the guy considering he was once pretty good
                                                                Comment
                                                                • PickWinnerAllDay
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-31-11
                                                                  • 12722

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Read an article about how much confidence Harrison had lately.

                                                                  Replace confidence for 'stupidity'

                                                                  First base open and you challenge Pujols and leave it on a T
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • You mad bro
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-15-12
                                                                    • 16641

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay
                                                                    Read an article about how much confidence Harrison had lately.

                                                                    Replace confidence for 'stupidity'

                                                                    First base open and you challenge Pujols and leave it on a T
                                                                    Slow pitch softball
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • opie1988
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 09-12-10
                                                                      • 23429

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay
                                                                      Read an article about how much confidence Harrison had lately.

                                                                      Replace confidence for 'stupidity'

                                                                      First base open and you challenge Pujols and leave it on a T
                                                                      Jesus.
                                                                      It's the first fukkin inning. Calm the fukk down.
                                                                      Comment
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