Cleveland Indians (+113) over Tampa Rays is my play of the evening.

[stevenash]

Love Zach McAllister in this spot tonight.
He's clearly a run and a half better pitcher than Alex Cobb tonight.

Both starters have no history against their opposing teams, so that angle does not apply, but let's look at the basics first.

McAllister's across the board numbers are solid. 3.40 American League ERA is nice, 1.28 WH/IP ratio is sound, 41 K's in 42 innings is attention getting.

What McAllister isn't is an innings eater, (they are still stretching him out to be one though)he's not an eight inning guy yet, he'll give you 6 plus good innings, maybe seven, but this isn't a problem, Indians have three late inning relievers. Pestano is outstanding at what he does (holds leads-25 of them and counting so far) Joe Smith's solid work goes unnoticed, but he's a late in the game arm (5 relief wins, 1.14 WH/IP) and I got no problem with Perez saving the ninth.

About McAllister, he's a 24 year old, signed straight of HS by the Yankees in the third round. Sent to Cleveland to complete the Austin Kearns deal. He started the year at AAA, got promoted by going 5-2, 2.97ERA, 1.23 WH/IP

In 2011 at AAA he was 12-3 3.20 ERA and a WH/IP of 1.20
Struck out 128 in 153 innings.

The book on McAllister is he has a three pitch arsenal, a very good sinkerballer, keeps fly balls in the park.
Throws three pitches with near perfect reproduction, outstanding control, quick check of his 4.1:1 K to BB ratio backs this up.

He's the type of righty that should keep Tampa at bay, the Rays are trash against righties, they only hit .236

Alex Cobb, who starts tonight, had a mediocre rookie 2011, going 3-2, 3.42 ERA and a 1.32 WH/IP
Unlike McAllister, is regressing, this year he's fooling nobody, the numbers aren't pretty.
4-5 record, 4.89 ERA, 1.3+ WH/IP

Really like the Indians in this spot, decent road team, hits right handed pitching hard, dependable late inning bullpen, better starting pitcher.............


Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 300.00 / 339.00(USD)
Accepted : 7/16/2012 9:35AM - PST


Sport / Period : MLB Baseball / Game
Selection : Cleveland Indians
Time : 7/16/2012 4:10:01PM - (PST)
Line : +113
Pitchers : Z. McAllister - R - Action / A. Cobb - R - Action

[No coincidences]

I like this a lot as well, but I hate that everyone and their grandmother at SBR seems to share the same sentiments.

[Thurgood]

You can paint sh*t gold but it's still sh*t. If McAllister is so good, why the +113? Cleveland was rocked by Toronto and now has to travel to Tampa??? A lot of weekend travel and slumping bats.

I'm on Tampa ML.

[sacredflame]

i like the write up might tail it

[stevenash]

@Thurgood

What do you think the line should be? The line is correct as is, and in my opinion McAllister is a run and half better than Cobb, and Cleveland hits righties hard, and I think I covered it all in post 1 why I like Cleveland.

Cleveland shouldn't be a road favorite here.

Good luck

[Thurgood]

@Thurgood

What do you think the line should be? The line is correct as is, and in my opinion McAllister is a run and half better than Cobb, and Cleveland hits righties hard, and I think I covered it all in post 1 why I like Cleveland.

Cleveland shouldn't be a road favorite here.

Good luck

I guess we capped this game differently. Tampa is at home and rested. They had a great fight against Boston over three games. Cleveland not only has been on the road but had to clear customs and take a 4 hour plane ride out to Tampa. I also watched Cleveland over the last 2 games and just like Zona, you can't win games without run support.

[stevenash]

McAllister was in Tampa Saturday night. He's more than ready
Regarding the rest of the team, they got in, what? 10pm last night or so, travel is not a big factor 'capping this game tonight.

[poopoo333]

Kinda like the over here..

[Thurgood]

I took the Rays at -132 but so far it has dropped to -121. Seems like ppl are pounding the Cleveland line. Tampa will be able to hit against McAllister. The wild card is Cobb and the Cleveland bats.

GL man. Either way one of us wins this haha

[Thurgood]

Just thought I'd point out McAllister was rocked by the Rays right before the All-Star break.

[Thurgood]

"It's nice to know my stuff works against them."
-Cobb talking about beating Cleveland recently.

[Smoke]

Steve I pounded this overnight

Steve I agree

Steve good luck to us

[stevenash]

Just thought I'd point out McAllister was rocked by the Rays right before the All-Star break.

I spend 2 hours every morning handicapping, I am aware.

I get it, you love Tampa, good luck.

[stevenash]

"It's nice to know my stuff works against them."
-Cobb talking about beating Cleveland recently.

I get it, you love Tampa, bet it up dude.

Here's a novel idea, start a thread, tell us why you love Tampa tonight, I'll drop by, post 3 or 4 times why I like the other side.
Deal?

p.s. that win against Cleveland wasn't so much Cobb, but Masterson throwing meatballs.
Cobb gave up 3 earned in 6 innings, 6 hits, 2 walks, 95 pitches.

He made it seemed like he threw a complete game 2 hit shutout.

[ridims]

it amazes me on how people can take rest time of players (other then the pitchers) in consideration when capping a mlb game.
fuqing hilarious
ball players get wasted and party in between games and still perform well enough the next day. even pitchers.
jet lag from travelling shouldn't be a concern in baseball. its not the nba or hockey where players actually exert a lot of energy. please. you are kidding me

[ridims]

"It's nice to know my stuff works against them."
-Cobb talking about beating Cleveland recently.

Prefect excuse to back tampa bay where the starting pitcher publicly calls out a team as if they can't touch his stuff.

You are hilarious buddy. keep it up

[ridims]

Just thought I'd point out McAllister was rocked by the Rays right before the All-Star break.

8 K's in 5 innings of work? 0 ER's? You call that rocked?

what has sbr come to... who lets these idiots register?

[stevenash]

Just thought I'd point out McAllister was rocked by the Rays right before the All-Star break.

Rocked?
Rocked?

McAllister was cruising with a 5-0 lead into the sixth.
Top of the sixth, McAllister got Eliot Johnson on a weak ground ball out. Pena then reached on a 32 hop infield single to shortstop.
Zorirst hit a 99 times out of 100 DP ball to first for a 3-6-3 sure double play, out at second, As-Cab throws the ball away over first base.
Right there should have been end of inning. Then TB gets 5 unearned.

You know what McAllister's line was ?
5 2/3 innings pitched, 8K's 0 earned runs, 4 hits.

Rocked? Dude, stop, you are killing me.
4 hits through 5 2/3 and should have been 2 if no throwing error is rocked?

[EXhoosier10]

Good luck to us tonight, Steve. Jumped on this last night as my only ML play as I've been on a roll doing O/U's.

[stevenash]

Prefect excuse to back tampa bay where the starting pitcher publicly calls out a team as if they can't touch his stuff.

You are hilarious buddy. keep it up

Thanks for the backup dude, don't need, but thanks.

[ridims]

everyone should listen to steve nash. he can play ball and gamble on mlb

[stevenash]

^
I'll be dishing and swishing all night with Kobe.

[ridims]

i like you steve nash. your alright

[EVPlus]

Good write up on this game.

I do agree that it's never a good idea to boast about your pitching just because you got the W in the prior game.

I disagree that fatigue doesn't make a difference in a team's performance. It can be a difference maker - especially if they are facing a sneaky pitcher and the game is just another paycheck (no revenge motive, etc.). Not that Cleveland has any significant fatigue as a variable in tonight's game.

[CHR1S]

You think this games gonna fall in the Under?

[stevenash]

Good write up on this game.

I do agree that it's never a good idea to boast about your pitching just because you got the W in the prior game.

I disagree that fatigue doesn't make a difference in a team's performance. It can be a difference maker - especially if they are facing a sneaky pitcher and the game is just another paycheck (no revenge motive, etc.). Not that Cleveland has any significant fatigue as a variable in tonight's game.

I'm not saying to disregard fatigue all together when 'capping a game, but it flat out doesn't apply here.
McAllister has been in Florida, ahead of the team for two days now, the game yesterday started at 1:07, was completed in a crisp 2:47 so end of game was 3:54pm.

That Thurgood character says it takes 4 hours to clear customs, what a joke, when the team gets to the airport, they show passports, then they get ushered to the plane, 30 mins (if that, max) the game ends before 4, they are out of the stadium at 5, plane leaves at 6pm or so, takes 3 hours max, more like 2:50 with a tail wind to fly down the Atlantic coast from Toronto to Tampa, land at 9pm at the latest, in the hotel by 10pm, even if you go to the lounge, kick back with 2 beers, you are in the bed by midnight, sleep like a baby until 8am, get up fresh as a daisy for the night game.

Now, if you have to fly Seattle to Boston after an 13 inning game and leave at midnight, and have to play a day/night double dip starting at 1pm, then you can factor in travel, but for tonight's game, the percentage of travel that gets factored into 'capping tonight's game is, I don't know, somewhere between 0 and 1 percent.

[stevenash]

You think this games gonna fall in the Under?

I do, I like the under 8.5
I have no confidence in Tampa's offense

This lineup

Rhymes 2B
Pena 1B
Zobrist RF
Upton CF
Scott DH
Keppinger 3B
Jennings LF
Molina C
Johnson SS
(Cobb P)

will not score more than 2

This lineup

Cabrera SS
Kipnis 2B
Brantley CF
Lopez 3B
Hafner DH
Santana C
Kotchman 1B
Damon LF
(McAllister P)

will score 5

Cleve 5
Rays 2

[EVPlus]

I'm not saying to disregard fatigue all together when 'capping a game, but it flat out doesn't apply here.
McAllister has been in Florida, ahead of the team for two days now, the game yesterday started at 1:07, was completed in a crisp 2:47 so end of game was 3:54pm.

That Thurgood character says it takes 4 hours to clear customs, what a joke, when the team gets to the airport, they show passports, then they get ushered to the plane, 30 mins (if that, max) the game ends before 4, they are out of the stadium at 5, plane leaves at 6pm or so, takes 3 hours max, more like 2:50 with a tail wind to fly down the Atlantic coast from Toronto to Tampa, land at 9pm at the latest, in the hotel by 10pm, even if you go to the lounge, kick back with 2 beers, you are in the bed by midnight, sleep like a baby until 8am, get up fresh as a daisy for the night game.

Now, if you have to fly Seattle to Boston after an 13 inning game and leave at midnight, and have to play a day/night double dip starting at 1pm, then you can factor in travel, but for tonight's game, the percentage of travel that gets factored into 'capping tonight's game is, I don't know, somewhere between 0 and 1 percent.

We're on the same page here. I even stated that the fatigue variable does not factor in to tonight's game between Cle/Tampons (my new name for them).

I was disagreeing with another poster that stated fatigue only effects pitchers and that clearly is not what I have seen; and it also flies in the face of basic athletic science.

BOL tonight.

[CHR1S]

CLE Team total is O3.5 is not bad either. Hrmm am I more sure of that CLE ML or TT O3.5? ML is +value..

[Thurgood]

I'm not saying to disregard fatigue all together when 'capping a game, but it flat out doesn't apply here.
McAllister has been in Florida, ahead of the team for two days now, the game yesterday started at 1:07, was completed in a crisp 2:47 so end of game was 3:54pm.

That Thurgood character says it takes 4 hours to clear customs, what a joke, when the team gets to the airport, they show passports, then they get ushered to the plane, 30 mins (if that, max) the game ends before 4, they are out of the stadium at 5, plane leaves at 6pm or so, takes 3 hours max, more like 2:50 with a tail wind to fly down the Atlantic coast from Toronto to Tampa, land at 9pm at the latest, in the hotel by 10pm, even if you go to the lounge, kick back with 2 beers, you are in the bed by midnight, sleep like a baby until 8am, get up fresh as a daisy for the night game.

Now, if you have to fly Seattle to Boston after an 13 inning game and leave at midnight, and have to play a day/night double dip starting at 1pm, then you can factor in travel, but for tonight's game, the percentage of travel that gets factored into 'capping tonight's game is, I don't know, somewhere between 0 and 1 percent.

Dude, why you getting so defensive? I even said gl and one of us will win. Cleveland still stuck at +112. Heck, the way you make it sound so B&W Michael Jordan might as well load up here $500k on the Tribe and use the "L" word.

Books don't just give away money. I capped my games last night. I normally use line shifts to cap and that +112 says please please pound me and over think it.

[Thurgood]

Btw I never said 4 hours to clear customs. I said you had to factor that in. 3 hour flight, 1 hour at each airport because it's an international flight and you got 5 hours travel time. And yes I know they fly chartered but as someone who knows private aviation, Masterson could fly-in solo on a Gulfstream 550 and it would be at least 20-30 minutes to clear.

[Thurgood]

I do, I like the under 8.5
I have no confidence in Tampa's offense

This lineup

Rhymes 2B
Pena 1B
Zobrist RF
Upton CF
Scott DH
Keppinger 3B
Jennings LF
Molina C
Johnson SS
(Cobb P)

will not score more than 2

This lineup

Cabrera SS
Kipnis 2B
Brantley CF
Lopez 3B
Hafner DH
Santana C
Kotchman 1B
Damon LF
(McAllister P)

will score 5

Cleve 5
Rays 2

Ha! This clown is predicting the score now lol Are you from Ohio or something? Daddy take you to see the Indians as a kid?

Check the box score from yesterday. Tribe scored 0 RUNS on 5 hits and 1 error. You can't win these road games without run support. Period.

Btw not a Tampa homer at all. I just know they can hit in their own ballpark.

AND Villanueva throws right... "Cleveland just crushes right-handed pitchers" lol whatever dude

[Grits n' Gravy]

In mr. Nash I trust. Blindly tailing again.

[stevenash]

Ha! This clown is predicting the score now lol Are you from Ohio or something? Daddy take you to see the Indians as a kid?

Check the box score from yesterday. Tribe scored 0 RUNS on 5 hits and 1 error. You can't win these road games without run support. Period.

Btw not a Tampa homer at all. I just know they can hit in their own ballpark.

AND Villanueva throws right... "Cleveland just crushes right-handed pitchers" lol whatever dude

a) Yankee fan, don't give a crap about these two teams unless there is money involved.
b) Cleveland Indians hit .275 against right handed pitching, that's third best in the majors.
c) Cleveland Indians lead the majors in OBA against right handed pitchers.
d) Yes, Villanueva was lights out yesterday, the '27 Yankees would have been shut out.
e) Yes, Villanueva is right handed, he's on a different level then Alex Cobb, they are facing Cobb tonight, not Villanueva.
f) You don't handicap off of one game, you handicap on an entire body of work. If the Cubs beat Kershaw last night, would you bet them again tonight if they were facing NYY or Texas?

g) Btw not a Tampa homer at all. I just know they can hit in their own ballpark.
Really? Really? Are you some kind of masochist? Do you really enjoy me embarrassing you? Do you like the taste of your foot in your mouth?
NOW PAY ATTENTION! The Tampa Rays hit .221 at home. I'll say it again real slow ...TWO...TWENTY...ONE.
That is good for 29th out of 30th in home batting average? If you knew that, you wouldn't say this "I just know they can hit in their own ballpark"

Looking forward to your next post. I really am.

[dj_destroyer]

Gonna blind tail as well... don't fukk me nash!