Betting secret from the sports guy

[cleaveland]

Every NFL season when the playoffs come around I read Bill Simmons' "NFL Playoff Manifesto" just to brush up. This last MLB all-star game really drove home the importance of the following rule from the manifesto for me because I don't know if it's ever been clearer:

RULE NO. 4: When in doubt, check out the coaching matchups
An easy rule of thumb: Before you make a selection, imagine you're watching the game and seeing one of those split-screen thingies with both coaches pacing the sidelines. Could you handle knowing that you backed the coach who looks like the overmatched doofus? For instance, six years ago, I took Miami over Buffalo simply because I didn't want to see a spilt-screen shot and know that I gambled on the doofus (Wade Phillips) over the guy who looked like a real coach (Jimmy Johnson). Sounds stupid? It worked. Buffalo doubled Miami's yardage and dominated the time of possession ... yet they still blew the game with four turnovers. Go figure.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060106a

When I look at these two pics the words "overmatched doofus" and "looked like a real coach" definitely come to mind:

[Mr KLC]

Ron Washington looks like a homeless vagrant in that picture.

[HoulihansTX]

Managers have the least effect n the outcome of games, in all American sports.

The smartest manager in MLB, Maddon, will probably never win the World Series.

BTW, what SPECIFIC errors in judgement has Ron Wash made in the past two years?

And Wade Phillips coached teams have always underachieved. Its not even arguable.

[Mr KLC]

Norv Turner can be thrown in that group with Wade Phillips. How he still has a head coaching job, I'll never know.

[gamble]

you can't measure how much a coach affects his team, a lot of times it about the atmosphere that a coach can create in teams' lockers rooms. i can't imagine washington creates an atmosphere close to TLR, although translating this into wins or losses is impossible

[ttrace35]

Managers have the least effect n the outcome of games, in all American sports.

The smartest manager in MLB, Maddon, will probably never win the World Series.

BTW, what SPECIFIC errors in judgement has Ron Wash made in the past two years?

And Wade Phillips coached teams have always underachieved. Its not even arguable.

Good post.

[Inkwell77]

In college basketball I believe that coaching is factored into the lines and you don't really get much value betting on perceived "great coaches"

[baskets]

Managers have the least effect n the outcome of games, in all American sports.

The smartest manager in MLB, Maddon, will probably never win the World Series.

BTW, what SPECIFIC errors in judgement has Ron Wash made in the past two years?

And Wade Phillips coached teams have always underachieved. Its not even arguable.

LOL, quoted by a black man... in the same thread where a black manager absolutely threw away a pocketed World Series win for the Rangers... and the guy is the master of destroying wins. Rangers aint winning the ring with that thing at the helm. Book it.

[baskets]

In college basketball I believe that coaching is factored into the lines and you don't really get much value betting on perceived "great coaches"

Coach Romar = 2 brain cells + all the talent in the world on his teams


put him up against a coach with a brain... Izzo, whoever.... they get roasted alive


book it

[tatommack]

As a ranger fan I have to agree this guy sucks. He's always leaving pitchers in to long or yanking them to quick. I really fill the rangers are way above other teams in the MLB but we lose many games because of his managing. When he first got here he was so aggressive on the bases the other team would get flustered and throw the ball around. We hardly steal any bases any more.

[jjgold]

Coaching in some cases does matter and yes it should factor into your capping

some guys are just dumb fuks

coaching does matter-in mbl a far as pitching changes

[SparJMU]

Managers have the least effect n the outcome of games, in all American sports.

The smartest manager in MLB, Maddon, will probably never win the World Series.

BTW, what SPECIFIC errors in judgement has Ron Wash made in the past two years?

And Wade Phillips coached teams have always underachieved. Its not even arguable.

I disagree with this. A lot. MLB is very tricky because you can second guess every decision and we don't know what would have happened if the coach had gone the other way. The managers mostly play the odds and historical matchups, so it's tough to say they have a huge impact. However in the NBA and NFL coaching is extremely important. Extremely. I mean the examples are too many to count, but as an Eagles season ticket holder I can tell you that Andy Reid is one of the best preparation and personnel coaches in the league. I can also tell you that he is incapable of making second half adjustments and despite a decade+ in the league he still doesn't know how to manage the clock inside two minutes. An NFL team can only go as far as their coach can take them. Coaches have an extraordinary impact on the outcome of the game.

[GunShard]

Norv Turner can be thrown in that group with Wade Phillips. How he still has a head coaching job, I'll never know.

Who ever owns the San Diego Chargers franchise is a square.
Traded away Drew Brees, Michael Turner, Merriman, Cromartie, Darren Sproles and Vincent Jackson. Kept Norv Turner. There is no way the San Diego Chargers will win a Super Bowl in the next 10 years.

[princecharles]

Great thread.
There is no way of ever knowing what we don't know.
I mean no matter how badly the math guys want to make this all/only about numbers, there just has to be so many effective ways of arriving at a lean.

[MikeZaW]

Coaching is important in baseball when it comes to pitching changes and double switches

[opie1988]

LOL, quoted by a black man... in the same thread where a black manager absolutely threw away a pocketed World Series win for the Rangers... and the guy is the master of destroying wins. Rangers aint winning the ring with that thing at the helm. Book it.

What did Washington do to throw away the "pocketed" World Series win for Texas?

If you watched that series at all, there is no doubt that Wash outcoached LaRussa. Tony made numerous glaring mistakes, including saying he called in the wrong pitcher because he couldn't hear on the dugout phone.

In the end, the players, and the plays that either do or don't get made, win the games.

[TheMoneyShot]

Interesting

[Smoke]

unreal

[ttrace35]

Dusty Baker. Multiple managerial awards.

[Quake]

Dusty Baker. Multiple managerial awards.

[arpeggiomeister]

Every NFL season when the playoffs come around I read Bill Simmons' "NFL Playoff Manifesto" just to brush up. This last MLB all-star game really drove home the importance of the following rule from the manifesto for me because I don't know if it's ever been clearer:

RULE NO. 4: When in doubt, check out the coaching matchups
An easy rule of thumb: Before you make a selection, imagine you're watching the game and seeing one of those split-screen thingies with both coaches pacing the sidelines. Could you handle knowing that you backed the coach who looks like the overmatched doofus? For instance, six years ago, I took Miami over Buffalo simply because I didn't want to see a spilt-screen shot and know that I gambled on the doofus (Wade Phillips) over the guy who looked like a real coach (Jimmy Johnson). Sounds stupid? It worked. Buffalo doubled Miami's yardage and dominated the time of possession ... yet they still blew the game with four turnovers. Go figure.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060106a

When I look at these two pics the words "overmatched doofus" and "looked like a real coach" definitely come to mind:

Good post. I am still trying to incorporate this into my handicapping but I am not very good at it. I look at offense minded coaches vs defense minded coaches and see if I can find any holes. I also look for people on the coaching staff that recently coached on other teams. If a team has a coach that intimately knows the defensive or offensive schemes of their opponent it can be advantageous. I read this in a book and have yet to put it into practice, but the idea really intrigued me. I have a lot of new ideas to try this year. NFL is only 2 months away. Can't wait.

I think the coaches are probably the most overlooked and most vital piece of the puzzle... ...At least for newbies and squares. Would the Patriots be as good without Bill Belichick? I don't think so.

[BiffTFinancial]

Someone takes capping tips from Bill Simmons?

[thebestthereis]

If u don't have inside information you don't have squat. Good luck!

[cleaveland]

Someone takes capping tips from Bill Simmons?

I think the article I posted has a lot of good advice, why does it matter who wrote it?

[2daBank]

I think the article I posted has a lot of good advice, why does it matter who wrote it?

i think anyone that found rule 4 helpful is down a great deal...who the fukk doesnt factor in the coaches, especially in the NFL?

[cleaveland]

i think anyone that found rule 4 helpful is down a great deal...who the fukk doesnt factor in the coaches, especially in the NFL?

Of course but the point being made here is that sometimes you can get all the information you need just by looking at a person. If you think that sounds dumb, actual scientific studies and findings have backed up the idea:

http://www.amazon.com/Blink-The-Power-Thinking-Without/dp/0316010669/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1342154709&sr=8-1&keywords=blink

[2daBank]

Of course but the point being made here is that sometimes you can get all the information you need just by looking at a person. If you think that sounds dumb, actual scientific studies and findings have backed up the idea:

http://www.amazon.com/Blink-The-Powe...keywords=blink

i know all the coaches i dont really need to stare at their picture to factor them into the gm...i know which ones are dumbfukks and which ones prepare their team and have them executing, which ones make proper adjustments in gm, and it has nothing to do with looks, but whatever gets you rox off brother...

[cleaveland]

i know all the coaches i dont really need to stare at their picture to factor them into the gm...i know which ones are dumbfukks and which ones prepare their team and have them executing, which ones make proper adjustments in gm, and it has nothing to do with looks, but whatever gets you rox off brother...

I beg to differ. These are a couple of examples from the NBA (very experienced coaches who seem to always be out coached), what Bill Simmons wrote applies all over the place. You don't need to know anything specific about their game plans, just look at them.

[2daBank]

you not getting what im saying...i know what the fuks look like, more importantly i know the incompetent ones.. nt sure what you "begging to differ" about? that you like staring at pictures of men? i agree it pretty obvious and that is "only" to give you a edge im sure..

[2daBank]

why is men staring at men in the baseball forum? isnt this more suited for PT?

[cleaveland]

you not getting what im saying...i know what the fuks look like, more importantly i know the incompetent ones.. nt sure what you "begging to differ" about? that you like staring at pictures of men? i agree it pretty obvious and that is "only" to give you a edge im sure..

I was disagreeing with you when you stated "it has nothing to do with looks". It's great that you're omniscient but this is meant to help the lesser beings among us.

[face]

Joe girardi best MLB manager now that larussa's gone

[BigPage25]

Coaches influence on the outcome of games is very minimal.....The players are the ones out their performing..... so Its the players who influence the games 90 percent of the time.... If you think otherwise your just a dumb a ss

[hundredbombs]

Spoelstra looks like a complete doofus. He won the title, and isn't even coaching that team. Everyone knows Riley is.

[nic9212]

Cleavland who wins tonight, indians or blue jays?