My plays...
fed in 5 +850 (dsi)
tsonga in 5 +750 (dsi)
fed in 5 +850 (dsi)
tsonga in 5 +750 (dsi)
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Just look at the opponents that have taken sets from Federer already this tourny, and his struggles against far inferior opponents. What's preventing Djoker from taking ATLEAST a set here?
And I simply will not buy into the theory of 'Federer wasn't playing his best / wasn't trying his hardest, etc.' That's b/s considering this guy is a legend and knows this game inside out. There is no chance in hell he purposely slacked or anything of the sort in ANY of his matches in a grand slam, esp. this one where he knows he has a chance to make history. Just look at the Benneteau match, Federer came TWO POINTS away from elimination...two points, in a tie-breaker!! He knows what kind of danger u can run into in these matches, and im sure he did try hard but it wasnt enough to dominate, barely got through. His struggles have been purely a result of him not being at his best, and possibly some injury.
While Djokovic on the other hand has been the opposite. He's dropped 1 set thus far only. This is similiar to what Nadal was doing at French Open. Obviously its hard for any player to dominate a tourny like Nadal does at RG, but how Djoker has played thus far here is pretty much the closest u get to that point. And just like at RG, Djoker and Federer had their struggles but still pulled through, however each of them eventually lost to the better player who was in better form. This will happen to Federer, Djokovic is too much for him right now.Comment -
These matches always wind up brutal for people trying to pick sides. Always good to look at the alternate options like games played, sets played and props IMO.Comment -
Its like I was saying im Moyals thread ,Federer had an interview with the BBC where he said he was a little worried running around in his last match with Youzhny and didnt go after balls where he didnt think he had a chance. If Fed is having back problems and he is not at 100% , facing a guy like Novak who is one of the best in the world at moving guys around the court is going to be tough not to mention having to get low on a grass court that is really slowing with use.
Hitting 30 in tennis is a huge milestone, look at the difference in how aggressive Federer used to be to where he hits his shots now. The Wall Street journal has one of the best previews I have read on this match
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304550004577508780736598 746.html
Just google roger Federers bluff if this link doesnt work.
They compared Federers shot selection and noticed the difference with age, from 2003 to 2006 he was almost always over 40% in the baseline. Even McEnroe was really noticing how Federer has aged especially when coming to the net, if he just sits back at the baseline and trys to trade shots with Djokovic he is going to lose, even without the backhand errors. This shows you the change in his game.
Federers shots vs Nadal wimbledon 2007
Federers shots vs Malisse wimbledon 2012
Djokovic is playing as good as he has all year here at wimbledon, even the nonsense about grass as Djokovics least favorite surface just doesnt make sense. Djokovic won Wimbledon last year and has absolutely stellar numbers on grass, he actually has been more profitable on grass than Fed, though its a small sample size.
I hope we get a good match and this is not going to be like the French or Rome this year where Novak beat Fed in straight sets but if Fed is not at 100%, he is not going to beat Djokovic from the baseline. Even if Fed is serving well, he is facing one of the best, if not the best, returners in tennis. That Wall Street journal article did talk about Fed bluffing so lets hope its just strategy.
I hope this as good as the Murray/Ferrer match, but I really think we will see a Djokovic/Murray final and I wouldnt be surprised to see this Fed/Nole anticlimactic but I hope not. It would be great if Fed does win here , he would equal Sampras's record 7 titles at wimbledon and get that number one ranking back. Another record Roger would match with Sampras, 286 weeks as number 1. I just dont see him getting by Djokovic here but we will see.Comment -
That's one thing i was also having a hard time wrapping my head around. People saying that Federer is better on grass than Djokivic. I mean as a whole career wise of course Fed's accomplishments tower those of Djokovic's but Joker is the defending wimbledon champion. Current day Joker has the better credentials.Comment -
classic no bet sort of match unfortunately.
not 3-0 is a great bet.... only caveat is that Djoker has the firepower to blast Fed. and Fed lays down once he gets behind... as seen again and again. so if Fed loses 1st set... and gets behind in 2nd, it'd be lights out
if Fed wins 1st set tomorrow, guaranteed super lock on the over. if u can get live total games, that would be the bet of the year probably
not many places give u live in-match running totalsComment -
@gregm thanks for the post. This is what I was talking about to build confidence for ones wager. Looking at the math and your post is all about the math.
Yet and still off all the posts I am sure Fed wont sweep, and I like my prop bet of +650 in 5 for Fed. Hell wish I could get those odds betting on Joker. Also wish I could have got +850 like someone posted here on Fed in 5
I think if Fed wins at all it will have to be in 5. So my +650 feels good. Just bet a unit to be involved so I'm good with it.
*If you can take the credit... you have to be able to take the blame.
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good luck rawbilly..... +850 is the line right now at betdsi and bookmaker.Comment -
+650
that is the line still over at 5dickheads I mean dimesComment -
Djokovic will beat Federer for the 7th time in their last 8 meetings.
For a straight bet, I bet BIG on Djokovic at -232.
As far as points handicaps, I bet medium on Djokovic -4 at +103 and small on him -6 at +272.
For set betting, I bet small on Djokovic wins 3-0 at +260 and small on him winning 3-1 at +200.
For over/under, I bet tiny on the under 41.5 at -104.
I'm very confident in Djokovic here. He'll win and cover the -4 for sure, but I think the -6 and under 41.5 also have a good chance at hitting too. I think he's going to beat Federer pretty badly either in 3 or 4 sets.Comment -
**** it Im just gonna pull an all nighter and watch the game in the morning. Gonna be great tennis anyway you slice it.
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So how much dough you have on this one JJ? Since you started this thread. Are you still gambling or just wishful air bets?Comment -
Fed takes 3rd set!
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who has Fed in 4???Comment -
I had no one but would of lost live bettingComment -
Joker is flat
This was only service Fed could clip himComment -
More like chokovic..... ha!!! See what i did!!Comment -
TTWarrior called Fed in 4. Question is ...did he play it? I don't see the evidence
Fed vs Murray Both of these guys have serious incentive Sorry Joker!Comment
