I feel this talk is needed... (serious replies only)

[SBR Lou]

Money management.

Control your betting. Bet 1 unit a game only, no need to risk more on an individual play. If you ever deviate from flat-betting, take another hobby.

Never bet openers, let the sharps shape the line for you.

Always watch the sport you're wagering on, so that you get a better feel for the game.

Always stay up to date with the latest news and information from Sportscenter and the forum.

Never lay more than -800 on an individual event.

Someone let me know if I left anything out...

[firedawg]

1 game only?

[tullamore]

Dont bet what you cant afford to lose or you will end up in a never ending cycle of scrounging for money.

[Tosser]

Money management.

Control your betting. Bet 1 unit a game only, no need to risk more on an individual play. If you ever deviate from flat-betting, take another hobby.

Never bet openers, let the sharps shape the line for you.

Always watch the sport you're wagering on, so that you get a better feel for the game.

Always stay up to date with the latest news and information from Sportscenter and the forum.

Never lay more than -800 on an individual event.

Someone let me know if I left anything out...

1+2 is totally wrong...
you can get a much better price on openers often enough, especially if you have a feeling that a line will most likely move against you the longer you wait..

And not betting more than one unit when you feel you have a real edge this time, why wouldn´t you? Make that more than 10 units or something like that and i will prolly agree

[AgainstAllOdds]

Money management.

Control your betting. Bet 1 unit a game only, no need to risk more on an individual play. If you ever deviate from flat-betting, take another hobby.

Never bet openers, let the sharps shape the line for you.

Always watch the sport you're wagering on, so that you get a better feel for the game.

Always stay up to date with the latest news and information from Sportscenter and the forum.

Never lay more than -800 on an individual event.

Someone let me know if I left anything out...

Are you completely fuking nuts?

and Yes im being serious

[MonkeyF0cker]

This is a recipe for square betting.

[bigboydan]

Are you completely fuking nuts?

and Yes im being serious

Be nice Fonzie's cousin. Instead of bashing CrazyL, how about giving him some sound advice.

[SBR Lou]

This is a recipe for square betting.

Square betting would be chasing, getting emotional, raising unit size to ungodly amounts in relation to your bankroll. If you can't turn a profit betting one unit (1/100th) of your roll each game, then there's no sense varying your bet size...

In fact, if you have no edge your optimal bet size is 0...

This is advice I feel many posters here can implement and come out better for it..

[firedawg]

this is a joke. who plays 1 game a day?

[Justin7]

Openers are easy to beat. Closing lines are tough to beat.

The only reason you shouldn't bet into an opener is limits. If you want to bet more than the opening limits, you *might* consider waiting. If I can bet $2k into an opener with an 8% edge, or $10k with a 1% edge against closers, I'm better off betting less against an opener.

Risk sizing. Know your advantage. Know when you have one, and when it is smaller. Flat betting is ridiculous if you know your stuff... But at some point, your "bet size" will become whatever the market will bear at a price.

[pavyracer]

Follow my plays. I never lost money in a fiscal calendar year.

[Tosser]

Well the thinking behind flat betting is not completely wrong, for some guys it might be the best..but you cannot generalize that.
If i see a line that is off imo (but not a bad line of course) i can increase my bet size, all Pros do it.

Do not bet over your head and be ready to loose a 3 or 5 unit game too, and do not chase a loss, that is the advice i would give.
Don´t put more money in your bankroll than you can afford to loose.

[SBR Lou]

this is a joke. who plays 1 game a day?

You can play more than one game a day, but play one unit per play only..

[tacomax]

Money management.

Control your betting. Bet 1 unit a game only, no need to risk more on an individual play. If you ever deviate from flat-betting, take another hobby.

Never bet openers, let the sharps shape the line for you.

Always watch the sport you're wagering on, so that you get a better feel for the game.

Always stay up to date with the latest news and information from Sportscenter and the forum.

Never lay more than -800 on an individual event.

Someone let me know if I left anything out...

This is either a joke or crazyl has just handed in his notice.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Be nice Fonzie's cousin. Instead of bashing CrazyL, how about giving him some sound advice.

Dannyboy,

If this guy really believes what he just wrote, There is no way I can help him. And Im not saying Im a sharp or anything close to it, but I will say I know the recipe crazyl has outlined is one for disaster.

[ShamsWoof10]

Money management.

Control your betting. Bet 1 unit a game only, no need to risk more on an individual play. If you ever deviate from flat-betting, take another hobby.

Never bet openers, let the sharps shape the line for you.

Always watch the sport you're wagering on, so that you get a better feel for the game.

Always stay up to date with the latest news and information from Sportscenter and the forum.

Never lay more than -800 on an individual event.

Someone let me know if I left anything out...

I can't say that I agree with SportsCenter but the rest I would agree with...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Square betting would be chasing, getting emotional, raising unit size to ungodly amounts in relation to your bankroll. If you can't turn a profit betting one unit (1/100th) of your roll each game, then there's no sense varying your bet size...

In fact, if you have no edge your optimal bet size is 0...

This is advice I feel many posters here can implement and come out better for it..

Of course chasing is a square methodology. However, varying bet size according to your edge is essential to maximizing bankroll growth. See Kelly Criterion. And in order to get the greatest edge on each game, you have to often beat the steam which often means betting openers. If you allow sharps to move the line to efficiency, you are losing any and all edge anyway. Now you are stuck at a coinflip, with a square, no edge bet for which you will certainly lose long term.

[Willie Bee]

This is a recipe for square betting.

I disagree. I believe the intent here was to encourage some sort of money management. There is too often an assumption that someone who sets their financial priorities straight and sticks to a budget is a square which is a loser. Horse hockey! I don't care if you call them units or dollars or whatever, stay within your means. Don't fall for internet bullsh!t and don't bet what you ain't got. It's really very simple.

[SBR Lou]

Of course chasing is a square methodology. However, varying bet size according to your edge is essential to maximizing bankroll growth. See Kelly Criterion. And in order to get the greatest edge on each game, you have to often beat the steam which often means betting openers. If you allow sharps to move the line to efficiency, you are losing any and all edge anyway. Now you are stuck at a coinflip, with a square, no edge bet for which you will certainly lose long term.

Everyone has to start from somewhere. If we're being completely technical about it, it's hard to justify posting up if one has no edge or the slightest idea about how to quantify one properly.

All I'm saying is, it'd be a great move for many of us to first see how we can do over different markets betting 1% of our funds each game over an extended period of time. Without the ability to first utilize sound money management, one will never be able to spread their gambling wings any further.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I disagree. I believe the intent here was to encourage some sort of money management. There is too often an assumption that someone who sets their financial priorities straight and sticks to a budget is a square which is a loser. Horse hockey! I don't care if you call them units or dollars or whatever, stay within your means. Don't fall for internet bullsh!t and don't bet what you ain't got. It's really very simple.

Money management is surely essential to successful handicapping, Willie. Just not by the terms laid out by Crazy. See my above post for further explanation. The intent is noble but the implementation is faulty.

[InTheHole]

Flat Betting and Money Management are two completely different subjects. I always have the same style when it comes to MM but would be broke if I utilized flat betting stategy.

[Willie Bee]

Money management is surely essential to successful handicapping, Willie. Just not by the terms laid out by Crazy. See my above post for further explanation. The intent is noble but the implementation is faulty.

What works for you doesn't always work for me Monkey. I think both Ganchrow and LT Profits have good heads on their shoulders and both use systems that bring the bacon home. But their exact disciplines will not work for me. Money management workd for everyone. Period.

[daggerkobe]

Fade everyone that joined on and after Sep 08.

[Ganchrow]

I think Crazy pretty clearly intended this advice for recreational bettors and insofar as that's the case I'd judge it to be quite applicable (exhortations to view SportsCenter notwithstanding ).

[SBR Lou]

I can't say that I agree with SportsCenter but the rest I would agree with...

I think Crazy pretty clearly intended this advice for recreational bettors and insofar as that's the case I'd judge it to be quite applicable (exhortations to view SportsCenter notwithstanding ).

Friday, Oct. 17th, 9:07EST.

ShamsWoof10 and Ganchrow agree on something...

I knew I'd see the day, you guys are too smart not to take the same stance eventually..

[AgainstAllOdds]

I think Crazy pretty clearly intended this advice for recreational bettors and insofar as that's the case I'd judge it to be quite applicable (exhortations to view SportsCenter notwithstanding ).

I understand what everyones trying to say...but wouldnt it be smarter to try and lead them down the "correct path" to start out with?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Everyone has to start from somewhere. If we're being completely technical about it, it's hard to justify posting up if one has no edge or the slightest idea about how to quantify one properly.

All I'm saying is, it'd be a great move for many of us to first see how we can do over different markets betting 1% of our funds each game over an extended period of time. Without the ability to first utilize sound money management, one will never be able to spread their gambling wings any further.

Well, isn't that in everyone's best interest to be completely technical about it? Surely, it is still possible to find edges while not betting openers but this significantly reduces your chances of finding edge. That should be a beginner's first lesson. One should first dedicate a small bankroll to learning those techniques first and foremost, with the expectation of loss. Then, when capable of quantifying their edge, commit a more sizeable bankroll implementing Kelly.

[firedawg]

Fade everyone that joined on and after Sep 08.

fade me

[rm18]

It does not have to be Sportscenter but you have to get up to date late injury info somewhere, it is usually good to have on so you here stuff like Charles Tillman is out without trying so you know what to bet

[Ganchrow]

I understand what everyones trying to say...but wouldnt it be smarter to try and lead them down the "correct path" to start out with?

Well the problem is that the "correct path" is only correct for a certain type of bettor. That same path can be decidedly incorrect for bettors who don't meet some very specific criteria.

That said, I'd have to opine that it probably doesn't much matter whether a small rec bettor plays openers, closers or anything in between.

[skrtelfan]

Of course chasing is a square methodology. However, varying bet size according to your edge is essential to maximizing bankroll growth. See Kelly Criterion.

Right, I was about to say, it would be silly to have a Kelly Criterion calculator on this site if that was not the optimal way to bet!

[pavyracer]

One sort of information I use is the radio. I listen to coaches and analysts interviews daily. What you read on the internet or SBR forum as a swollen ankle or knee is usually a broken ankle or torn ACL. I have contacts in various locker rooms that can provide me with information the recreational bettor can't process. I know before games start if a player has the flu, ate something bad, his wife is cheating, he cheats with someone's else wife etc. I use this information to beat the books daily. I disguise my bets to move the lines in my favor. I place a small nickel bet with my brother's account to move the line the opposite 0.5 point to my liking and then I hammer the opposite line with 5 dimes to the play I want. I am the books worst enemy. I'm very good and proud of what I do.

[Willie Bee]

I propose an SBR Ultimate Handicapper's Contest.

Let's say you have 500 units to bet within a given calendar year. Let's also suppose you may bet as little as a half-unit to 10 units per wager. Let's include all lines offered at the most recently voted Top 10 sportbooks in an SBR poll, or something along those lines, and let's appoint a committee that consists of one SBR owner/boss/admin/mod, one poster in the 5K+ range and one poster in the 1K-4.999K range to work out the fine print. Obviously, SBR is left to determine prizes.

Let's dub it the 2009 SBR Handicapper's Challenge, and invite pros, sharps, squares, rec players, your Wives/girlfriends, their lovers and others to join in.

[Ganchrow]

Well, isn't that in everyone's best interest to be completely technical about it? Surely, it is still possible to find edges while not betting openers but this significantly reduces your chances of finding edge. That should be a beginner's first lesson. One should first dedicate a small bankroll to learning those techniques first and foremost, with the expectation of loss. Then, when capable of quantifying their edge, commit a more sizeable bankroll implementing Kelly.

I think the issue is that the vast majority of beginning bettors just aren't on a path towards principled advantage play.

As such the advice Crazy gave has some very important advantages for these sorts of rec. bettors. To wit:

1. Control your betting -- If a rec. bettor follows this rule he'll keep from chasing and won't bet outrageous amounts.
2. Never bet openers -- As noted this probably doesn't much matter way or the other, except I suppose, to potentially keep a bettor from betting too many games (see below).
3. Always watch the sport you're wagering on -- if the bettor only bets on games he plans to watch he'll bet on fewer games, which given a fixed unit size would imply he'd expect to lose less money.
4. Never lay more than -800 on an individual event -- The greater the extent to which a rec. bettor focuses on a faves, the more inexorable the decline of his bankroll. This is a bad thing insofar as most of the derived utility for a rec. bettor comes from reasonable outcome volatility.

[Ganchrow]

All this said, bettors with the ability and intention to eventually become advantage players should, once they comes to fully comprehend why the above advice is inapplicable to advantage play in general, deviate quite substantially from these dicta.