Who's here actually winning?

[hotelis]

Who there on this forum can HONESTLY put his hand on his heart and say "I am winning in long term"?

[iifold]

Most Higher Ups winning...

Paid Posters just about breaking even...

Rest living paycheck to paycheck with hopes of hitting 10-teamer...

[LT Profits]

I've had a lot more winning seasons than losing ones, and that's not to mention peripheral stuff like Dutch Soccer that is easily beatable simply by getting stale lines at slow books. (Well, that could be true of many leagues, but line moves in Dutch soccer are right on a higher percentage than most).

[BuddyBear]

Almost every one is losing. Very few winners.

[sportsguy04]

I'm a winner in l

[GunShard]

I'm winning by spot betting by betting once a week.

[Regul8er]

99.8% are losing long term. We all have stretches were we win and think it's easy, but we all come back down to earth.
If 10 people tell you they in fact are winning long term, 9 of them aren't being truthful.

[baskets]

Regul8r one of my favorite posters. Up there with RageWizard.

[Regul8er]

Im thinking you may chirping me baskets.......but its all good.
I know its nearly impossible, but yet I stick around like an idiot.

[Cuse0323]

We're all losing when we have to watch Serena bend over at Wimbledon. Camera man, no one that watches tennis wants to see that shit.

[BIGDAY]

MMA +EV

College sports tread water.

Pro sports can sukk my rooster.

[dante1]

Almost every one is losing. Very few winners.

This is absolutely correct, I know this for a fact. Most people that claim they are long term winners are liars--period. If you have been around for a long time you know that you will eventually have a winning season and maybe even a winning year or two but anybody claiming they have more winning years than losing--nah! Does this mean that nobody wins, no it doesn't it means that probably close to 99% of us will be in the red in the very long run. It's math people, you can't beat the math in the long run.

[probettor1]

Most people here are broke, money broke and srb points broke. It is known that only 2% of bettors make money, and probably half of those have inside info we dont have. If my best friend were a college basketball coach and he would tell me if he is planning to rest his best player in the first half or to push a great deffense (to bet the under), then I would be in the 2%. So, the fair number is probably 1%, but here is the other part, those professional bettors are math and stats freaks and they watch a lot of games, so they probably dont have time to fool around in a forum where 30% are trolling, 30% are spoiled kids crying for attention like pickawinnerallday and the rest are posting sucker bets. But funny thing 90% here claim to be a winner. My bookie knows they are lying.

[Chi_archie]

losing big

[BuddyBear]

Almost impossible to win for the common person. Too many favorites, too many overs, too many parlays, too many teasers, too many times buying points, too many bets on prime time games, etc....

[Emily_Haines]

I've been getting my ass stomped at everything. Losing WNBA, international basketball, at casino and even getting teeth kicked in at SBR micro limit poker.

FUK

[dante1]

Almost impossible to win for the common person. Too many favorites, too many overs, too many parlays, too many teasers, too many times buying points, too many bets on prime time games, etc....

Exactly, these are all valid reasons. Also many players tend to kill a winning streak by slowing down and perpetuate a losing steak by doubling up. So many variables against the player and finally the vig. Just a losing proposition in the long run.

If you absolutely must play you should accept the fact that you most likely will lose. Then you must formulate a strategy starting with an absolute rule--never gamble more than you can lose comfortably. If you don't do that prepare yourself for a miserable life. I have witnessed it time and time again and even two suicides.

[xyzky]

Rest living paycheck to paycheck with hopes of hitting 10-teamer...

Oh that would be nice, all ML Dogs too!

[jjgold]

If you track your plays here using sbr spreadsheet and put up for the public you will see 99% lose

Most scared to death to track plays because they do not want to see how much they lose

[dante1]

If you track your plays here using sbr spreadsheet and put up for the public you will see 99% lose

Most scared to death to track plays because they do not want to see how much they lose

Correct JJ, you and I have been around long enough to see tons of guys claiming to be winners post their plays and go down in flames. Some of them actually believed their 60% and higher bs stories. Most of them I believe are kids. Just about everybody in their 20's believe they can win at this game.

[probettor1]

If you track your plays here using sbr spreadsheet and put up for the public you will see 99% lose

Most scared to death to track plays because they do not want to see how much they lose

This is the man with more posts here, 129,036 posts, he knows what he is talking about. He knows every one here and read all the threads, he checks the spreadsheet of every player, he can tell. This is the man that can prove than even the popular paco lost his shirt.

[jjgold]

Proper yes

Paco lost cars too

I am buried but at least I post and track it daily

[probettor1]

Proper yes

Paco lost cars too

I am buried but at least I post and track it daily

tracking doesnt help, only winning, but you are honest, and that's what count.

[baskets]

Im thinking you may chirping me baskets.......but its all good.
I know its nearly impossible, but yet I stick around like an idiot.

nope. being serious. I'm a fan of the regul8r. same w/ RageWizard. same w/ Stumpage... and a variety of other posters.


now if we're talking about frizzelli? shit, I shit in his children's Canadian soup

[stevenash]

I've been getting my ass stomped at everything. Losing WNBA, international basketball, at casino and even getting teeth kicked in at SBR micro limit poker.

FUK

Your'e a loser. Pretty simple.

[GunShard]

Exactly, these are all valid reasons. Also many players tend to kill a winning streak by slowing down and perpetuate a losing steak by doubling up. So many variables against the player and finally the vig. Just a losing proposition in the long run.

If you absolutely must play you should accept the fact that you most likely will lose. Then you must formulate a strategy starting with an absolute rule--never gamble more than you can lose comfortably. If you don't do that prepare yourself for a miserable life. I have witnessed it time and time again and even two suicides.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bet on sports that you are good at, don't bet on sports you are bad at. Do your research.
2. Bankroll money management. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
10. Never bet on double digit favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string or 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".

[probettor1]

Exactly, these are all valid reasons. Also many players tend to kill a winning streak by slowing down and perpetuate a losing steak by doubling up. So many variables against the player and finally the vig. Just a losing proposition in the long run.

If you absolutely must play you should accept the fact that you most likely will lose. Then you must formulate a strategy starting with an absolute rule--never gamble more than you can lose comfortably. If you don't do that prepare yourself for a miserable life. I have witnessed it time and time again and even two suicides.

Death certificate or it never happened.

[PharaohUB]

Not saying I'm a winner but it is definately possible. Patience is key. Been doing this for about ten years and it really is about picking your spots. It's a lot like the stock market. Both teams in a matchup have an intrinsic value just like a stock does. Whenever public sentiment is against your team (stock) for no good reason there is value in that bet (stock). Bookies want even action, line is set to get even action - they aren't gamblers. You are really betting against other people and you need to outsmart them.

If you bought BP stock a week after the oil spill and you would have had a huge return on your money in a couple of months. Same if you had shorted oil when it was at $150 a barrel and all the pundits were claiming it was going to go higher and higher, etc. Bet against the yankees/lakers. Bet against guys like Rosol the match after they take down Nadal. Bet on unranked favorites against ranked opponents in college ball. Two weeks ago every post in here was about how god damn awful the cubs were. They're 7-3 in their last ten at an average price between +150-200. Remember Dickey on fire big Sunday night baseball game and he was a dog? That should have told us all something. Bet on teams when they are down, bet against teams when they are on a roll. The idea of momentum, and form are over-rated and people just misunderstand how statistics apply to real life. There are what like 35 baseball teams? Do 35 separate 10 flips of a coin. In that 35 times one or two times heads is likely to go 8-2 or 9-1. It doesnt mean that next flip isn't still 50-50. Same goes if a pitcher has a bad couple of starts, etc. If anything that pitcher might be more focused, and now you've got a more focused pitcher at a great price, because the money is rolling in against the guy who's pitched a couple bad games. If you have patience to do this you will be beating the instrinsic value of the bet by 10-20 cents each time.

Not sure if this made any sense to anyone. It's late and I'm tired and went off on a tangent there...

[PharaohUB]

JJ you have inspired me to start a spreadsheet and I will only make plays based on the crap I spewed above which is probably all b.s. and i'll lose anyway. I'll see how it works out.

[probettor1]

Not saying I'm a winner but it is definately possible. Patience is key. Been doing this for about ten years and it really is about picking your spots. It's a lot like the stock market. Both teams in a matchup have an intrinsic value just like a stock does. Whenever public sentiment is against your team (stock) for no good reason there is value in that bet (stock). Bookies want even action, line is set to get even action - they aren't gamblers. You are really betting against other people and you need to outsmart them.

If you bought BP stock a week after the oil spill and you would have had a huge return on your money in a couple of months. Same if you had shorted oil when it was at $150 a barrel and all the pundits were claiming it was going to go higher and higher, etc. Bet against the yankees/lakers. Bet against guys like Rosol the match after they take down Nadal. Bet on unranked favorites against ranked opponents in college ball. Two weeks ago every post in here was about how god damn awful the cubs were. They're 7-3 in their last ten at an average price between +150-200. Remember Dickey on fire big Sunday night baseball game and he was a dog? That should have told us all something. Bet on teams when they are down, bet against teams when they are on a roll. The idea of momentum, and form are over-rated and people just misunderstand how statistics apply to real life. There are what like 35 baseball teams? Do 35 separate 10 flips of a coin. In that 35 times one or two times heads is likely to go 8-2 or 9-1. It doesnt mean that next flip isn't still 50-50. Same goes if a pitcher has a bad couple of starts, etc. If anything that pitcher might be more focused, and now you've got a more focused pitcher at a great price, because the money is rolling in against the guy who's pitched a couple bad games. If you have patience to do this you will be beating the instrinsic value of the bet by 10-20 cents each time.

Not sure if this made any sense to anyone. It's late and I'm tired and went off on a tangent there...

This sound like an obama speach, beautiful words with no use. Ej you talk betting the yankees because every one is on them. I checked what would happened betting the NYY every time they are underdog, if you did that you would have made 50/50 with a + line. The public is frequently right, so going vs them is not an option unless you have other factors. You need to know how to calculate the line using the stats of the players, team, coach and many other circumstances and wait for the line makers to mess up. Problem is very few people know how to calculate the line before the line makers do it.

[hotelis]

If there is a 50-50 chance when handicapping games, does it make sense that only 2% are winning? And in ML games, chance of winning is even greater..

[necro]

Chance of winning is bigger, but payout is lower...


For -200 line win, you get half of your stake return. You need 2 win for one lose just to break even.

I think the basic principles of betting are: patience, do not overbet(stick to MM), don't bet bad lines(heavy favourites), bet singles or max 2 combo. Pick your spots, don't hold on statistics too much. Get some info. Play against public.

And DO NOT BE GREEDY...for every hot run, there is also cold streak.

[jjgold]

JJ you have inspired me to start a spreadsheet and I will only make plays based on the crap I spewed above which is probably all b.s. and i'll lose anyway. I'll see how it works out.

Phara good job..we will be looking for it

SOlid posts also

[Smoke]

Everyone here is a winning gambler

No such thing as losing gambler @ SBR

[manny24]

smoke wins every time he gets up in the morning...kid is a fukkin stud.