Martingale Query

[PickWinnerAllDay]

I'm curious as to what are the chances, starting at a base of $5, that you will be able to gain $1,000 using the martingale system, with say, a starting value of $5,120. Obviously, you'd have to lose 10 in a row or so to go broke. And you'd have to win 200 martingale rounds to get to your goal of $1,000. So what are the chances you gain the $1,000 before you bust out?

I know there is a way to figure this out mathematically... I was hoping a sharp out there could help me out.

[PAULYPOKER]

What is wrong in that head of yours that makes you post over 250 times in a 24 hour period?

This is the question you should be asking yourself.......

[LostBankroll]

YOu will never win 1k period so dont bother pal.

[Sunde91]

this guy hasn't the slightest clue in the world asking retard questions but bets 5k a game

I also checked his post history before and saw over 200 posts for the day. Log on SBR at any random point and he has the last post in 5 different threads HAHA absolute psycho

[Jerm3462]

I'm curious as to what are the chances, starting at a base of $5, that you will be able to gain $1,000 using the martingale system, with say, a starting value of $5,120. Obviously, you'd have to lose 10 in a row or so to go broke. And you'd have to win 200 martingale rounds to get to your goal of $1,000. So what are the chances you gain the $1,000 before you bust out?

I know there is a way to figure this out mathematically... I was hoping a sharp out there could help me out.

Well, I can't do the math. I know others here can (Im sure they will help you in the morning)

I've tried this martingale thing before.....
Honestly you'll probably go 200 wins without losing 10, BUT that 10 losses in a row WILL eventually come.

[jjgold]

Martingale does not work in any form of gambling because of house limits

[ajcobb22]

Playing perfect strategy, you have a .1% chance of the casino winning 10 consecutive hands. The minimum number of hands needed to win at least 200 times is 404 (again assuming perfect strategy). So, in conclusion, you have a 40.4% chance of busting and losing it all before you make the 1000

[ngates815]

bump, anyone have an answer?

[Smoke]

Well if you zero out you can always do a ********** Kerry. You know about chargebacks right kerrywoodwins20??

[milwaukee mike]

Playing perfect strategy, you have a .1% chance of the casino winning 10 consecutive hands. The minimum number of hands needed to win at least 200 times is 404 (again assuming perfect strategy). So, in conclusion, you have a 40.4% chance of busting and losing it all before you make the 1000

your math is off

you're right that it's about 1 in 1000 of the player losing all 10 in a stream

but every other possible outcome in martingale is a win

so the odds of losing the $5100 (if you could bet high enough to finish the stream) before winning $1000 are 200 in 1000 or 20% roughly

which is what you'd expect when you are essentially risking 5k to win 1k

4 times out of 5 (80%) you'll win the 1000, the other 1 time out of 5 (20%) you'll lose the 5000

[acl123]

Mike is sharp.

[acl123]

Martingale does not work in any form of gambling because of house limits

That's why you use multiple books.

[frogsrangers]

I wrote a quick program to simulate this, with a bankroll of $5120, betting $5 per session on a 48% win game(such as pass line in craps, red/black on roulette), quitting the session either a profit of $1000 or losing the entire $5120 bankroll....

A "win" means you won $1000, a "loss" means you lost $5120.... so each line below is a trial of 100 sessions.

Wins: 95 Losses: 5 Balance: 69400
Wins: 94 Losses: 6 Balance: 63280
Wins: 96 Losses: 4 Balance: 75520
Wins: 94 Losses: 6 Balance: 63280
Wins: 92 Losses: 8 Balance: 51040
Wins: 99 Losses: 1 Balance: 93880
Wins: 94 Losses: 6 Balance: 63280
Wins: 93 Losses: 7 Balance: 57160
Wins: 95 Losses: 5 Balance: 69400
Wins: 95 Losses: 5 Balance: 69400
Wins: 95 Losses: 5 Balance: 69400
Wins: 96 Losses: 4 Balance: 75520
Wins: 92 Losses: 8 Balance: 51040

The average seems to be about 95 wins/5 losses, so a 95% chance you will win $1,000 and a 5% chance you will lose $5,120

More info can be found here, that the martingale strategy isn't a winner in the long run:

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

I wouldn't recommend it in the long run unless you have a huge bankroll and a lot of patience

[frogsrangers]

From a math standpoint... the chances of losing 10 plays in a row in a game like craps, betting the don't pass line, is 10 ^ 0.506, or 0.11%, so its a small chance, but the law of averages state that that 0.11% will happen eventually. The longer you play, the more likely it is to happen.

[milwaukee mike]

^^^
frogs your numbers are off in that simulation, everyone would do it if there was a 95% chance of winning $1000 and a 5% chance of losing $5000

[secretstash]

if ur gonna bet martingale, do it with a game that pays odds (not 1 to 1).

try sic bo (3 dice) u can bet on say the number 6.. if 1 comes up its 1 to 1.. 2 comes up 2 to 1 and 3 comes up 3 to 1.

so in ur chase progression of say $5, u have a chance to hit 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 in ur higher betting = bonus profits.

this imo would be the best way to go.

on a roulette wheel u could do the same by betting 8 of the 16 numbers of red and the red every time. Say 1$ on 8 numbers(all red) and then 10$ progressions on red/black (choose red in this case).. that way when a red number hits u make 2$ and have a chance at hitting one of ur 8 numbers which will pay 4 to 1(because ur playing 8 of them)

this gets u overall odds of 3.5 to 1 (on first spin if u hit an exact number)/ 2.7 to 1 spin 2(exact number)/ 1,9 to 1 spin 3 / 1.1 spin 4/ goes down agressively afterwords. where u will be playing to win $2 total.

another trick is to start your progressions after 5. so dont chase red/ or whatever u chase 6's in sic bo.. etc until 5 have missed.. then u save the first 5 rounds.. less often play but better assumed odds.


-stash

[PAULYPOKER]

The best chance to win using martingale is to play the field in craps because of the snake eyes and box cars,Why? Simple, these numbers pay you double when they come up.......

[secretstash]

The best chance to win using martingale is to play the field in craps because of the snake eyes and box cars,Why? Simple, these numbers pay you double when they come up.......

this is along the lines of what i was saying. play something that also has the chance of paying odds rather than 1 to 1.

sic bo is the 100% best game for this.. but most casinos dont have it (for a reason I am sure)

-stash

[William Walters]

bump, anyone have an answer?

gates...........go easy on Picker today. He's gotta be a little post-drunk after making over 400 posts this past weekend.

I'll say this about Picker though.......considering the guy has a cool social life, dates "9's", and runs a few businesses.......finding the time to pop in to SBR to make over 400 posts on the weekend is quite impressive.

[ngates815]

gates...........go easy on Picker today. He's gotta be a little post-drunk after making over 400 posts this past weekend.

I'll say this about Picker though.......considering the guy has a cool social life, dates "9's", and runs a few businesses.......finding the time to pop in to SBR to make over 400 posts on the weekend is quite impressive.

I wasn't "picking" on picker...I wasn't here for the weekend, besides to log in to get my precious points while I had reception on my phone.

I'm sure he had a fantastic weekend in vegas.

But I was actually very curious to this answer and since the thread kinda "bombed" with people making fun of him, I thought I'd bump it to see if people would actually give answers and they did.

[frogsrangers]

^^^
frogs your numbers are off in that simulation, everyone would do it if there was a 95% chance of winning $1000 and a 5% chance of losing $5000

Correct.... my script was accidentially counting wins as losses and losses as wins. Fixed that, and here is what I got:

Wins: 87 Losses: 13 Balance: 20440
Wins: 91 Losses: 9 Balance: 44920
Wins: 89 Losses: 11 Balance: 32680
Wins: 86 Losses: 14 Balance: 14320
Wins: 86 Losses: 14 Balance: 14320
Wins: 84 Losses: 16 Balance: 2080
Wins: 81 Losses: 19 Balance: -16280
Wins: 90 Losses: 10 Balance: 38800
Wins: 84 Losses: 16 Balance: 2080
Wins: 81 Losses: 19 Balance: -16280
Wins: 88 Losses: 12 Balance: 26560
Wins: 87 Losses: 13 Balance: 20440
Wins: 89 Losses: 11 Balance: 32680
Wins: 86 Losses: 14 Balance: 14320

Seems to be an average of 85% chance to win, which correctly matches Wizard of Odd's simulations.

[milwaukee mike]

^^ sounds more like it

85% chance of +1000
15% chance of -5000

so out of 100 chains ($500,000 potential in play) the net outcome is -about -10,000 (2% or so house edge)

for any chase betting system, the net expected outcome is ALWAYS the house edge on the money you're putting in play

so on a million bets (or a billion) it really doesn't matter what system you use. what matters if you want to be profitable over the long run is that you make +ev bets by taking bonus money/kickbacks/etc

[frogsrangers]

^^ sounds more like it

85% chance of +1000
15% chance of -5000

so out of 100 chains ($500,000 potential in play) the net outcome is -about -10,000 (2% or so house edge)

for any chase betting system, the net expected outcome is ALWAYS the house edge on the money you're putting in play

so on a million bets (or a billion) it really doesn't matter what system you use. what matters if you want to be profitable over the long run is that you make +ev bets by taking bonus money/kickbacks/etc

Pretty much

There is NO WAY to beat any casino game. Otherwise the said game wouldn't exist. Casino games don't exist to give players money, it exists to make money for the casinos. If a game lost money, it wouldn't exist. Just like if a product on a shelf at a store lost money for the store, they wouldn't sell it

[jjgold]

It does not work

It could work for a while but eventually it will fail and you lose everything

Nothing is easy

[Sam Odom]

Best way to use the Martingale... Mini-Modified , no more than 4 or 5 rounds

Baseball is a great sport to use it on

[Darkside Magick]

Best way to use the Martingale... Mini-Modified , no more than 4 or 5 rounds


Baseball is a great sport to use it on

Also on basketball quarters and half....I use fibonacci for baseball and basketball..work great

[raydog]

played a roulette martingale system for a while until table limits were dropped...if you are a guy with a big roll or large funds, study the rows/colums of 12 (there are 6 on a table for those of you here who arent very bright)...when one row or box doesnt hit for 7 spins, begin martingale betting it...pays 2-1... (the 2-1 payout allows you to drop your bet a bit...meaning you dont have to double every single time to come out way ahead) the discipline to wait on the 7th spin and a casino with at least 6 running tables is a must...more than 1 watcher for 6 tables is a good idea...also, see about getting your personal limits raised to possibly 10x the table max... in tunica, its often times hard to find a table with more than 5k max spin... theres are reason why its only 5k-10k here now.

[PickWinnerAllDay]

Glad this thread got some insightful answers.