Loshak Leans 6/20: Justin7 Guests To Discuss Beating The Closing Line, 3 MLB Leans

[CarpeDime]

Got my AS* HANDED TO ME yesterday boys. As* handed to me, no other way to put it. But beat the closing line by a mile on one of my bets that also lost by a mile, so I talked to Justin7 about how to think about a bet where you beat the closer by a mile but then lose the bet by a mile.

3 leans tonight baybee I'm liking them!

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[Brock Landers]

good vid Loshaq!

how about Detroit last night, was a nice line for Verlander!

[CarpeDime]

good vid Loshaq!

how about Detroit last night, was a nice line for Verlander!

hey man you got that one baby, cannot disagree with you bro

got my as* handed to me yesterday

do you notice the jj influence on me at times in this video???? Acting like jj REALLY helps at times dealing with big losing days

[acl123]

Good work Shacker.

[spankie]

dont bury me carp.

pounded the fuk out of these

[Brock Landers]

hey man you got that one baby, cannot disagree with you bro

got my as* handed to me yesterday

do you notice the jj influence on me at times in this video???? Acting like jj REALLY helps at times dealing with big losing days

as i learned, "act as if" is the best way to do things

"act as if your the fukking vice president"
"act as if you have a 9 inch rooster"

[baazigar]

youtube blocked at work. someone post the 3 leans please. thanks

[Mikail]

TT's can be a gold mine. Maybe this could be the ticket into the black.

[Mikail]

Cubs Ov 4 -115
Red Sox Ov 5 -116
Nats Ov 4 -117

[minet123]

I am on my way loshack
And I wont be alone
Those black SUV belong to DIS
I am going to out due Bean town Jim with Cascade when i am done

[CarpeDime]

just got a private email from justin7 where he indicated that according to his secret nerd methods of modeling baseball, he agrees with boston significantly and the other two very slightly as well BAYBEEEE!!!

[jagaf22]

Pretty good listen

[jjgold]

Put Brock landers on the fukkin show loshak

He knows how to fukkin win

Loshak call me

[Smoke]

Loshak u fukkin suck man

You buried my boy for a dime yesterday

You better hope you win today

[CarpeDime]

Loshak u fukkin suck man

You buried my boy for a dime yesterday

You better hope you win today

and how you think that makes me feel mothe*fuc*er??? I GOT BURRIED TOO YOU FUK! I mean not burried but big losses

and anyway WHY THE FUK IS YOUR BOY TAILING ME! I'M A COIN FLIPPA ****A!!!!!!

[spankie]

i beat the closing lines today finally

today i will be a winner

[shaunovery]

I'm confused why does it matter if the line goes up or down if you're already backed it

Of course you think it's a wining bet because you're backed it maybe you're just looking for extra reasons to think you're bet is good

[Sunde91]

dont fuk me with Nats TT O you fuk

[shari91]

I'm on all 3 Loshack. Be very afraid if we get chucked today.

[wantitall4moi]

not to cherry pick, but beating the closing line means absolute shit, the sooner you idiots figure this out the better off you'll be the fact that guys like this are seen as 'experts' shows just how desperate people are to give people a reputation.

But I guess guys without much going on in their lives thrive and live for this shit.

But in terms of actual betting philosophy you got the wrong side, you were laying big vig for the under regardless of how it moved had you bet the over you would have had very good positive odds AND won the play. So it was a loser play, but because it moved the solace you cant take is every other dummy out there that bet it also lost. Or guys with some smarts took both sides and made a little bit regardless.

But if you guys keep worrying about the 'market' then youll just drive yourselves crazy.

But the tell tale to all this is after a guy gets buried on a "great' under play and it blows over by more than double then it is always great to come back the next day with 3 overs.

but the classic is then justin talking about running a model for team totals and not having the time, seriously these model comments are hilarious, because if you have a model worth anything you should be able to do that shit in seconds, and most guys run all games of a series before the first game to get a parameter.

But just more comedy wrapped in something that guys actually take as reliable 'info'.

[No coincidences]

Good post want. I'm not saying it's not beneficial to BTCL, and frankly, it's one of the only things long-term you can measure your success/failure as an actual capper against vs. the market. With that being said, though, it's not like BTCL will yield a 70% success rate. You'll win more than you'll lose, but it'll be a grind if that's all you're concentrating on. It's just like RLM or anything else -- valuable to look at? Yes. But people who are obsessed with it and respond the way Justin did re: it's importance overexaggerate how important it truly is. It's a tool and a resource -- nothing more.

[No coincidences]

For instance, let's say you got the Yankees at -135 last night. It closed 24 cents higher. Where did BTCL get you? Books just juiced the hell out of Yankee backers, and there were a lot of them. BTCL on a big public play is as close to irrelevant as it gets.

[Sunde91]

great find with Nats against this rookie scrub 4 runs what a joke

[wantitall4moi]

For instance, let's say you got the Yankees at -135 last night. It closed 24 cents higher. Where did BTCL get you? Books just juiced the hell out of Yankee backers, and there were a lot of them. BTCL on a big public play is as close to irrelevant as it gets.

you bet both sides of baseball games like that. I did it for years and still do it now although not nearly as persistently as I used to.

How do you think I know that beating the closer doesnt mean shit. I made so much money buying back arbitrages in baseball it isnt even funny. I also kept track in a remedial way how often the moves were 'right' or 'wrong' based on a few criteria, lets just say moves have been 'wrong' more often than they were 'right'. Even if you look at beating the best possible number the results are telling, closers are only the 'best' number about 70% of the time so the whole concept of BTCN is flawed on its own.

When I had multiple accounts at pinnacle and was hammering opening numbers over and over again and moved lines like i had the controls to the book it was even mre telling, even factoring in the bias of my plays alone. but that is the beauty of the mentality of the 'modern' gambler, those moves generated more moves. I commented on it sevral times about how people would see these relatively low limit wagers that could move openers 8-10 cents were seen as 'sharp' moves and would sometimes snowball, which is obviously what you want. But the real windfalls came when syndicates liked the initial play and regardless of a move of 8-10 cents would still release it (again probably being bolstered into thinking some 'sharp' guy liked the same side they did and the current number still offered 'value') and it could generate a major move that would open up really nice buy backs.

So you could bet an opener at -118 with 5 or 6 overnight max bets and see it move to -123/116 on 'your' money then see what shook out, and if it did move to something like -136/128 you take the 128 buy back or do you let the 'beat the closing number' theory ride? I laways liked free money ad a 100% chance to profit. So guys who thought because they beat a certain market had a better chance just help me make more money.

Bottom line is MOVERS win more than FOLLOWERS, even if a follower is in before a mover because more often than not a mover will work both sides of the line because they know the thresh hold of profit while the follower doesnt really know shit about gambling other than generalizations and made up theories that if they actually proofed out they would find arent even close to being accurate. Sure they might have some short term successes which are actually more detrimental than anything because then you have them start to tailspin and ask the questions this guy is asking and asking someone who is as misinformed as he is for a reason or advice, which only compounds the issue even more.

Which is why I say these types of videos most guys see as 'informative' are just a comedy act for guys who actually have a clue.

[Br0nxer]

prikk looks coked outta his fukkin mind

probably won't make it to labor day

[CarpeDime]

bronxer what the fuk happened to the 4th run we need from washington man?????

[shari91]

Justin7 knew

[BIGDAY]

Losher u focker.

[CoachJB]

Wow my intelligence was just severely insulted by this video. Wtf?

[CarpeDime]

Wow my intelligence was just severely insulted by this video. Wtf?

well i think this video is very smart

[No coincidences]

you bet both sides of baseball games like that. I did it for years and still do it now although not nearly as persistently as I used to.

How do you think I know that beating the closer doesnt mean shit. I made so much money buying back arbitrages in baseball it isnt even funny. I also kept track in a remedial way how often the moves were 'right' or 'wrong' based on a few criteria, lets just say moves have been 'wrong' more often than they were 'right'. Even if you look at beating the best possible number the results are telling, closers are only the 'best' number about 70% of the time so the whole concept of BTCN is flawed on its own.

When I had multiple accounts at pinnacle and was hammering opening numbers over and over again and moved lines like i had the controls to the book it was even mre telling, even factoring in the bias of my plays alone. but that is the beauty of the mentality of the 'modern' gambler, those moves generated more moves. I commented on it sevral times about how people would see these relatively low limit wagers that could move openers 8-10 cents were seen as 'sharp' moves and would sometimes snowball, which is obviously what you want. But the real windfalls came when syndicates liked the initial play and regardless of a move of 8-10 cents would still release it (again probably being bolstered into thinking some 'sharp' guy liked the same side they did and the current number still offered 'value') and it could generate a major move that would open up really nice buy backs.

So you could bet an opener at -118 with 5 or 6 overnight max bets and see it move to -123/116 on 'your' money then see what shook out, and if it did move to something like -136/128 you take the 128 buy back or do you let the 'beat the closing number' theory ride? I laways liked free money ad a 100% chance to profit. So guys who thought because they beat a certain market had a better chance just help me make more money.

Bottom line is MOVERS win more than FOLLOWERS, even if a follower is in before a mover because more often than not a mover will work both sides of the line because they know the thresh hold of profit while the follower doesnt really know shit about gambling other than generalizations and made up theories that if they actually proofed out they would find arent even close to being accurate. Sure they might have some short term successes which are actually more detrimental than anything because then you have them start to tailspin and ask the questions this guy is asking and asking someone who is as misinformed as he is for a reason or advice, which only compounds the issue even more.

Which is why I say these types of videos most guys see as 'informative' are just a comedy act for guys who actually have a clue.

Damn. Justin7 got schooled here.

[CoachJB]

well i think this video is very smart

Lol it was acting and I feel offended.

[shari91]

Damn. Justin7 got schooled here.

Have you gone back through any sport and compiled any meaningful sample of data to determine if wantitall's number of 70% is accurate?

Actually, scratch that. You don't need to. There is a current thread in the TT that will explain it more clearly. It was started by Cheme82.

[No coincidences]

Have you gone back through any sport and compiled any meaningful sample of data to determine if wantitall's number of 70% is accurate?

Actually, scratch that. You don't need to. There is a current thread in the TT that will explain it more clearly. It was started by Cheme82.

So you're saying wantitall is a liar, or he's exaggerating how well he did arbing numbers at Pinny?

[Mikail]

1 out of 3 isn't gonna cut it loshak!