MIAMI -425 for the series

[illusion.this]

Is it worth it to risk 1000 for a 235 winning? I know its an awful bet based on ratio; but chances OKC comes back are close to zero. Up 3-1, I believe history shows no game 7 has ever been played let alone coming back and winning it all.

Might help with rollover and 200 free dollars?

I'm new so some advice would be great!

[jlee]

given history, it sounds like free money. just wondering, when was the 2-3-2 system implemented? because if OKC takes the next game, I'd be kinda nervous with OKC being so good at home. also according to history, it's not easy sweeping the middle 3 home games.

http://blog.newsok.com/thunderrumblings/2012/06/16/an-historic-look-at-the-nba-finals-2-3-2-format/

[Degenerate Life]

You might as well go ML. If they do lose they'll be underdogs in OKC thus better payout without risking as much and tied to a bet with bad odds at that point.

[krk1030]

I'll stick with Miami +160

[illusion.this]

What betting trends would you guys recommend? go ML? 100 today. If they lose. 200 next game? and 500 if game 7 happens?

[ChalkyDog]

Agreed with above. Just take the ML's the next game (and any subsequent game there after).

i.e

Game 5 Miami -155
Game 6 Miami +175
Game 7 Miami -110

No need to take the series price at -400

[ChalkyDog]

What betting trends would you guys recommend? go ML? 100 today. If they lose. 200 next game? and 500 if game 7 happens?

You are trying to win $200. Figure out what your bets need to be to hit that, and martingale it if they lose. If you are confident in Miami winning it all.

I.e.

Game 5: $310 to win $200

Since Miami will most likely be dogs in game 6 and maybe ev at worse in game 7 if it gets there, you can get your money without insane risk.

Also, you are able to cut your loses if you feel different after game 5, and aren't in it for 1K.

[illusion.this]

Alright cool. What do you guys think of this?

[paco]

Okc in 7

[SteelRain]

Is it worth it to risk 1000 for a 235 winning? I know its an awful bet based on ratio; but chances OKC comes back are close to zero. Up 3-1, I believe history shows no game 7 has ever been played let alone coming back and winning it all.

Might help with rollover and 200 free dollars?

I'm new so some advice would be great!

is it worth the risk?

imo the question should be: can I lay $1000 and lose and be ok the next day?

if yes, then take the bet, if not, don't

[LostBankroll]

Alot of great points made in this thread .... good shit

[nux4thecup]

Go for it, I am.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Whats the stats on teams coming back in a final being down 3-1?

[Ace_of_Spades]

The worst thing that could happen is if Lebron got hurt.

[daimoshokage]

Okc in 7

Classic idiot! Coming from a guy that is black and his kid that is white!

[JerseyRobby]

Bet to win game 5 then layoff because if they don't close it out in 5 OKC can easily win this series but that's a big if. I think it ends romorrow but the -425 just isn't worth it.

[GunShard]

I say it's worth the risk. There has never been a team that won or lost in game 7 when the series is 3-1.
If this stat is true this year then OKC has 0% chance to win.
But in terms of ignoring that stat, OKC is 13% to win.

[lakerboy]

Easiest $$$ ever.

[Snowball]

it's free money.
the above strat involving ML game chase is correct
unless you already have parlays involved.
i have over 20 bets hinged to Miami Series, 1st Half and ML
so unless you are going to pin a parlay to the Series
you're better off doing ML chase.

[pro-style]

WTF is wrong with you people and calling this free money? I don't understand how people can say this type of stuff over and over and over. When was a -444 line free money? Has a line like this never lost or something? Unreal... Oh and just because it never has happened before (comeback from 3-1 in the finals), does not mean it won't happen.

As for ML chase vs. taking the series. How is either any different? THE SERIES BET IS BASED ON THE ML BETS FOR GAME 5, 6, AND 7. Stop... and think about that for just one second...

Game 5 Heat ML -153
Projected Game 6 Heat ML +244
Projected Game 7 Heat ML +254

So if you take the series for $1000 and heat win, you will win $252. Based upon current line of -444.

If you do a ML chase:

Game 5 Heat ML, $385 to win $252
Game 6 Heat ML, $261 to win $637
Game 7 Heat ML, $353 to win $898

If Heat win any of these games you will win $252 and if they lose all 3 you will lose all $1000.

The projected lines were determined from the series price (-444) and the game 5 ML (-153).

If you think +244 and +254 are too high on the road for Miami, think again, OKC is going to be unbelievably hard to get a win in. It is considered the toughest arena to play in. Game 1 and 2 lines closed in the +210 to +220 area, game 6 and 7 will be even higher because of the home court combined with the magnitude of the games and this is reflected in the series price.

Any other 'opinion' on what the game 6 and 7 lines will be is going to be completely based upon some black magic and some gut feeling. These are real markets that are real deep, I'll go ahead and assume these are going to be the most correct numbers we can come up with.

P.S The only reason to take the ML chase is so you have the option to pussy out after each loss.

[Bill Dozer]

2004 Boston Red Sox

[letshitthis]

is this your initial series bet?

I'll stick with Miami +160

[LT Profits]

Coming from a guy that is black and his kid that is white!

Hey that makes him the opposite of me!