If you THINK 2012 Presidential Election will be a Landslide :: Think again

[PhillyFlyers]

I actually agree with the title of the thread.

It's going to be close, no blowout involved. Hell, Romney might even win.

The problem for Obama is that there is so much discontent with him, that many folks who voted for him the first time around, aren't going to be voting for him now.

If there is no viable third party candidate, Romney is going to gain all those folks.

The real test is going to be when they get into the debates.

If Romney can separate himself and talk about Obama's failures, I think that might be enough to seal the deal for Mitt.

However, if Obama winds up embarrassing Romney in the debates, it could swing big to Obama's favor.

I think it's going to be close.

[thetrinity]

honestly think romney will lose the debates but we will see. i definitely see apathy returning for a lot of groups who pushed him in 08.

[Sam Odom]

The problem for Obama is that there is so much discontent with him, that many folks who voted for him the first time around, aren't going to be voting for him now.

If there is no viable third party candidate, Romney is going to gain all those folks.

If only 4 out of 100 switch from Obama to Romney... Obama is toast

[Tully Mars 63]

To me this looks a lot like '04 where you have a unpopular incumbent and a weak challenger. Usually that leads to the another 4 years for the incumbent. Right now a lot of polls are showing people are unhappy with Obama but those polls include people on the left that don't like him but would never vote GOP. It's like the unpopularity of the health care act. Those numbers include folks pissed off because there's no public option.

[thetrinity]

If only 4 out of 100 switch from Obama to Romney... Obama is toast

i think youre going to see more obama 08 no shows then romney 12 switches

[PhillyFlyers]

honestly think romney will lose the debates but we will see. i definitely see apathy returning for a lot of groups who pushed him in 08.

This is a definite possibility.

Let's face it, if there is one thing Obama can do, it's talk.

The guy could sell milk to a cow.

The debates are going to be interesting. Obama definitely has the ability to embarrass Romney.

Romney needs to find a way to constantly talk about Obama's failures. Constantly remind people of his record.

The problem here for Mitt, is that he doesn't have all that great of a record himself and a guy like Obama speaking about it could turn it into an embarrassment quickly.

[Sam Odom]

i think youre going to see more obama 08 no shows then romney 12 switches

6/100 'no shows' + 2/100 'switches' will have the same affect

[thetrinity]

To me this looks a lot like '04 where you have a unpopular incumbent and a weak challenger. Usually that leads to the another 4 years for the incumbent. Right now a lot of polls are showing people are unhappy with Obama but those polls include people on the left that don't like him but would never vote GOP. It's like the unpopularity of the health care act. Those numbers include folks pissed off because there's no public option.

this is exactly why i gave up on my 08 sandbagging theory. obama was gonna be unbeatable once he steamrolled that bitch hillary in primaries in 07-08 and mccain/palin was the sacrificial lamb or so i thought. this time around hes very vulnerable and this is what the GOP trots out, a guy whos gonna lose his own state and the state he governed, much less belongs to a religious group thats viewed as extreme. good analogy to 04, bush was beatable then and a schmuck like kerry almost pulled it off, but not quite.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

lol @ people thinking romney has a chance. most voters don't pay attention to politics. they watch msm and parts of debates. romney's gonna be toast during the debates and election time. let's face it, most people that live in this country are dumb. they will be sold when they hear some regurgitated obama speech about how things are only gonna get better yada yada yada...

[PhillyFlyers]

this is exactly why i gave up on my 08 sandbagging theory. obama was gonna be unbeatable once he steamrolled that bitch hillary in primaries in 07-08 and mccain/palin was the sacrificial lamb or so i thought. this time around hes very vulnerable and this is what the GOP trots out, a guy whos gonna lose his own state and the state he governed, much less belongs to a religious group thats viewed as extreme. good analogy to 04, bush was beatable then and a schmuck like kerry almost pulled it off, but not quite.

Don't forget to add Romney's image as a vulture capitalist who takes advantage of the weak.

No one has any sympathy for the rich kid with everything. Unfortunate, but that's his image.

[Sam Odom]

G K , I agree to one of your points... Smart people will vote against Obama

[Sam Odom]

Don't forget to add Romney's image as a vulture capitalist who takes advantage of the weak.

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[thetrinity]

i wonder what the line on obama not getting 365 in electoral votes again would be?

[PhillyFlyers]

Sam

His IMAGE is that of a vulture capitalist who takes advantage of the weak.

It's all about image.

Imagine a speaker like Obama talking about Romney preying on weak companies, laying thousands of people off, quoting Romney "I like firing people". Imagine that.

Obama could embarrass him very quickly.

[Tully Mars 63]

this is exactly why i gave up on my 08 sandbagging theory. obama was gonna be unbeatable once he steamrolled that bitch hillary in primaries in 07-08 and mccain/palin was the sacrificial lamb or so i thought. this time around hes very vulnerable and this is what the GOP trots out, a guy whos gonna lose his own state and the state he governed, much less belongs to a religious group thats viewed as extreme. good analogy to 04, bush was beatable then and a schmuck like kerry almost pulled it off, but not quite.

Sometimes I think people get caught in these bubbles where everyone they know, talk to and listen thinks basically the same way they do. I was traveling the day Obama got elected. Literally took off from Houston with the race still very much in the air (no pun intended) and landed in Cancun with the pilot announcing was the President elect. All the people around me in first class spent the entire flight rejoicing about how the McCain train was going to roll Obama, especially in the west since he had Palin on his team. They were honestly shocked. I wasn't. When was the last election in California to go GOP? Reagan 30 years ago? When we took off Obama needed two or three midwest states and Cali. I thought it was going to be a wipe out... and it was.

[Sam Odom]

Obama could embarrass him very quickly.

Unless Jobs go up , unemployment down significantly in the next 4 months obama will NOT be able to embarrass anyone over 'JOBS'

[Tully Mars 63]

Sam

His IMAGE is that of a vulture capitalist who takes advantage of the weak.

It's all about image.

Imagine a speaker like Obama talking about Romney preying on weak companies, laying thousands of people off, quoting Romney "I like firing people". Imagine that.

Obama could embarrass him very quickly.

Obama's very smooth in a debate and Mitt can't keep his foot out of his mouth. If team Romney is smart, which I question, they're starting debate prep right now.

[PhillyFlyers]

[thetrinity]

Sometimes I think people get caught in these bubbles where everyone they know, talk to and listen thinks basically the same way they do. I was traveling the day Obama got elected. Literally took off from Houston with the race still very much in the air (no pun intended) and landed in Cancun with the pilot announcing was the President elect. All the people around me in first class spent the entire flight rejoicing about how the McCain train was going to roll Obama, especially in the west since he had Palin on his team. They were honestly shocked. I wasn't. When was the last election in California to go GOP? Reagan 30 years ago? When we took off Obama needed two or three midwest states and Cali. I thought it was going to be a wipe out... and it was.

i honestly dont know anyone EDUCATED who thought obama was going to lose in 08 if you asked them on election day. one grunt worker at my company said mccain will win cuz white people will never vote for a ****** LOL. he looked silly the next day when obama won for fun.

[Sam Odom]

Obama's very smooth in a debate and Mitt can't keep his foot out of his mouth.

that is in fact the 'perception' but I remember well the Gore/Bush debate perception and expectation - did not pan out

[Ghenghis Kahn]

G K , I agree to one of your points... Smart people will vote against Obama

sammy weren't you the one who said pick the devil we already know?

[Hawkeye2011]

Im surprised that ObamaCo isn't trying to say that since both Bush's were in the White House yesterday is the reason jobs are bad

[PhillyFlyers]

i honestly dont know anyone EDUCATED who thought obama was going to lose in 08 if you asked them on election day. one grunt worker at my company said mccain will win cuz white people will never vote for a ****** LOL. he looked silly the next day when obama won for fun.

This is a very interesting point.

Obama won because white people voted for him.

Think about this....

If every minority registered to vote had voted for Obama, and every white person voted for McCain, McCain would have won in a landslide.

So yes, Obama did win because many white people voted for him.

[thetrinity]

ya a republican will never have a chance in california again unless he was from there, at least in the near future.

[Tully Mars 63]

Unless Jobs go up , unemployment down significantly in the next 4 months obama will NOT be able to embarrass anyone over 'JOBS'

Sure he can. The same way Bush claimed the nations much safer under him then the other guy. The "other guy" can easily be made a boogey man. Especially with Mitt's poor performance of job creation in Mass., something many on the right have pointed out. Plus all the noise out there about jobs lost due to Bains actions (doesn't have to be true.) Just like Bush didn't have to (and there would be no way to do so) prove the nation was safer, Obama can simply state "you think job growth is bad under my policies they'll be 20 times worse if you elect my opponent.

When in doubt a lot of folks will stick with the devil they know.

[Sam Odom]

sammy weren't you the one who said pick the devil we already know?

generally that idiom is true

[PhillyFlyers]

ya a republican will never have a chance in california again unless he was from there, at least in the near future.

I heard Arnold wants to be prez LOL.

[Tully Mars 63]

that is in fact the 'perception' but I remember well the Gore/Bush debate perception and expectation - did not pan out

Gore came off stiff and spouting facts. Very little charisma. Obama and Gore are a horrible comparison.

[PhillyFlyers]

Gore came off stiff and spouting facts. Very little charisma. Obama and Gore are a horrible comparison.

Gore invented the internet though.

[Sam Odom]

Gore came off stiff and spouting facts. Very little charisma. Obama and Gore are a horrible comparison.

You are saying that -AFTER THE FACT-

The perception and expectation were that Gore would kill Bush in the debates. Everyone pointed to gore killing ross perot on Larry King Live

[mmaed]

If Romney feels like it he can bring up the fact that Barack Obama accepted 3.5 million dollars in campaign contributions from Bain Capital. That might make Romney look bad to the average voter b/c his friends are backing the other guy.

As to the debates..I think Romney can win, but Obama is a smooth talker so who knows. Romney certainly has far more credibility to run the country but not everyone realizes that.

Another big thing is Romneys VP. If he picks a guy that more people can relate to it will change the polls a lot. Someone like Rob Portman, an everyman. Right now, people only see the big Rich Mr. Romney. Portman or another VP pick can take some of that negative attention away and turn it positive.

If the economy continues to get worse + Portman gets named VP. I think Romney will be a slight favorite to win.

[mmaed]

Oh by the way I voted for Obama last time and I will be voting for Romney this time. I can't speak for other former Obama backers though.

[Tully Mars 63]

You are saying that -AFTER THE FACT-

The perception and expectation were that Gore would kill Bush in the debates. Everyone pointed to gore killing ross perot on Larry King Live

Gore's not a good debater. The fact he was considered to have beaten Bush doesn't mean much without the context of him debating Bush who quite literally doesn't speak English well on the fly. It's a little like saying the Cubs won, everyone agreed. Yes but they were playing a little league team from Omaha.

[Monitor-Tan]

Highly doubt Obama loses Florida with all the free money he's pumping into people

[tblues2005]

It is going to make a total difference if gasoline prices drop. The key thing is for gasoline prices go down to put more money in peoples pockets. At least we didn't lose jobs but it isn't growing fast enough. If gasoline falls below $3 a gallon will be like a huge tax break for everyone. Cutting your gasoline bill by 25 to 30 percent will help people a bunch. With the ones that drive for a living it will be huge.