omg, dodgers are around -160 ml tomorrow

[jeffdane]

I'm on dodgers again today, they've made me a ton of money this season so I'm not ready to back off them just yet



I am not gonna play the Dodgers tomorrow though cause I think Greinke will probably win

[brahmabull117]

Best pitcher in the majors playing for the best team in the NL at home to a 10-15 road team is now considered a coin flip?

they should have won the last 2 games in the series too, the dodgers offense has been just awful in this series

[No coincidences]

Of all the times to not take the Dodgers, brahma says he's backing Milwaukee with Greinke on the bump.

Might want to check out his home/road splits chief.

[brahmabull117]

Of all the times to not take the Dodgers, brahma says he's backing Milwaukee with Greinke on the bump.

Might want to check out his home/road splits chief.

they have won 3 out of his 5 starts on the road though. I know he got crushed in 2 out of his 5 road starts but I can't back the Dodgers recently putrid lineup against a good pitcher

[ShogunRua]

funny thread. surprised so many people didn't get the joke, but it made up for it by brah coming in here and backing the Dodgers.

[jeffdane]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-tomorrow.html, Post#5 when JeffDane talks about the bookies handing away free money when he advises betting on the Dodgers @ -105 on Monday night and not surprisingly they lose 3-2.

He comes right back with the Dodgers @ -160 saying it should be LAD -400.JeffDane = Automatic Fade who can even take down the mighty Clayton Kershaw.

this is my favorite

[remeedella]

i dontgetit

[ShogunRua]

Dodgers are indeed 'free money'.

[oChRoNiCo]

My guess is that
he's joking

Nice value on Gallardo here.

Nice value on a guy who has a career record of 0-3 with an ERA of 6.54 cool story bro!

[remeedella]

Dodgers are indeed 'free money'.

i feel like your in on this scam

[Gndias]

sh!t you guys are jinxing the damn series...

[rumnblack]

BOL

[Gndias]

believe me,i need it...or i will be cleaning toilets soon...

[BuddyBear]

I follow the Brewers very closely. I listen to all their games on the radio and tonight won't be any different. So I believe I am better qualified than most people to speak about this game.

Putting aside the OP's original comments, I give a very small edge to LAD in the betting line. There are a couple of things going for them. 1) Kershaw, along with Cole Hammels IMO, is the best pitcher in baseball. His stuff is down a bit from last year but it is still at at a very elite level. Gallardo, who use to be among the pitching elites, is no longer a reliable starter. His BB/9 is out of this world (4.34). Almost 2 more BB this year than last year and nearly 1 BB more than his career. Plus, if you look at the advanced metrics, you see that he is down in virtually every meaningful category whether it be his first-pitch strikes, getting batters to swing and miss, etc... Now, you might ask, is Gallardo doing anything different this year compared with last year? And the answer is not really. He is still throwing his 3 main pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup) at the same rate he was last year. Just his stuff has not been good and he has been pitching with runners on base all the time. Now the upside for Gallardo is that he is starting to put together some pretty good starts in a row and he is not facing STL and he should regress back to his career numbers. But personally, I don't trust his stuff right now. 2) MILW is fielding an overall very poor lineup these days with a minor league catcher just called up (Martin Maldonado) and Nyger Morgan (who has amazingly 0 RBIs), Rickie Weeks (batting in the .150's), Cody Ransom (replacement level player), Carlos Gomez (a very weak offensive player), etc... In fact, I trust Gallardo with a bat more than 4 of those players I just mentioned. And while LAD is not fielding murder's row, they still have Loney, Kemp and Either a slightly better combination than Hart, Braun, and Ramirez.

Given the edge in pitching and hitting, I made LAD around -160 before it came out. Most of the sharp money is probably backing Gallardo, but I have not seen enough consistency in Gallardo's starts to back him over Kershaw on the road. I don't blame people if they like MILW tonight, but I just don't see it. Kershaw handles righties almost as well as he does lefties and that should neutralize Hart, Braun and Ramirez. Whereas Gallardo has weaker numbers against lefty hitters (i.e. Loney, Either, Abreu, Herrara, etc..).

I recommend a play on LAD on anything < -160 tonight.

[Bluedragon]

I follow the Brewers very closely. I listen to all their games on the radio and tonight won't be any different. So I believe I am better qualified than most people to speak about this game.

Putting aside the OP's original comments, I give a very small edge to LAD in the betting line. There are a couple of things going for them. 1) Kershaw, along with Cole Hammels IMO, is the best pitcher in baseball. His stuff is down a bit from last year but it is still at at a very elite level. Gallardo, who use to be among the pitching elites, is no longer a reliable starter. His BB/9 is out of this world (4.34). Almost 2 more BB this year than last year and nearly 1 BB more than his career. Plus, if you look at the advanced metrics, you see that he is down in virtually every meaningful category whether it be his first-pitch strikes, getting batters to swing and miss, etc... Now, you might ask, is Gallardo doing anything different this year compared with last year? And the answer is not really. He is still throwing his 3 main pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup) at the same rate he was last year. Just his stuff has not been good and he has been pitching with runners on base all the time. Now the upside for Gallardo is that he is starting to put together some pretty good starts in a row and he is not facing STL and he should regress back to his career numbers. But personally, I don't trust his stuff right now. 2) MILW is fielding an overall very poor lineup these days with a minor league catcher just called up (Martin Maldonado) and Nyger Morgan (who has amazingly 0 RBIs), Rickie Weeks (batting in the .150's), Cody Ransom (replacement level player), Carlos Gomez (a very weak offensive player), etc... In fact, I trust Gallardo with a bat more than 4 of those players I just mentioned. And while LAD is not fielding murder's row, they still have Loney, Kemp and Either a slightly better combination than Hart, Braun, and Ramirez.

Given the edge in pitching and hitting, I made LAD around -160 before it came out. Most of the sharp money is probably backing Gallardo, but I have not seen enough consistency in Gallardo's starts to back him over Kershaw on the road. I don't blame people if they like MILW tonight, but I just don't see it. Kershaw handles righties almost as well as he does lefties and that should neutralize Hart, Braun and Ramirez. Whereas Gallardo has weaker numbers against lefty hitters (i.e. Loney, Either, Abreu, Herrara, etc..).

I recommend a play on LAD on anything < -160 tonight.

straight droppin' knowledge yo. great writeup

[jeffdane]

you got all that from listening to the games on the radio?

i got all that but i just looked at 2 webpages.

good luck if you bet, dodgers offense is just as bad, like you said.

gallardo is in a groove right now. sure his bb's are up but his hits are down.
last 4 starts: 25.1 IP, 6 ER, 2.15 era, 14 h, 14 bb, 1.11 whip
15 ip 3 er last 2 starts vs LAD

kershaw is also good, we dont need to debate that.

-160 is too high, especially considering 85% on LAD.

[ChicagoCover]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-tomorrow.html, Post#5 when JeffDane talks about the bookies handing away free money when he advises betting on the Dodgers @ -105 on Monday night and not surprisingly they lose 3-2.

He comes right back with the Dodgers @ -160 saying it should be LAD -400.JeffDane = Automatic Fade who can even take down the mighty Clayton Kershaw.

Lol, agree

[ChicagoCover]

I follow the Brewers very closely. I listen to all their games on the radio and tonight won't be any different. So I believe I am better qualified than most people to speak about this game.

Putting aside the OP's original comments, I give a very small edge to LAD in the betting line. There are a couple of things going for them. 1) Kershaw, along with Cole Hammels IMO, is the best pitcher in baseball. His stuff is down a bit from last year but it is still at at a very elite level. Gallardo, who use to be among the pitching elites, is no longer a reliable starter. His BB/9 is out of this world (4.34). Almost 2 more BB this year than last year and nearly 1 BB more than his career. Plus, if you look at the advanced metrics, you see that he is down in virtually every meaningful category whether it be his first-pitch strikes, getting batters to swing and miss, etc... Now, you might ask, is Gallardo doing anything different this year compared with last year? And the answer is not really. He is still throwing his 3 main pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup) at the same rate he was last year. Just his stuff has not been good and he has been pitching with runners on base all the time. Now the upside for Gallardo is that he is starting to put together some pretty good starts in a row and he is not facing STL and he should regress back to his career numbers. But personally, I don't trust his stuff right now. 2) MILW is fielding an overall very poor lineup these days with a minor league catcher just called up (Martin Maldonado) and Nyger Morgan (who has amazingly 0 RBIs), Rickie Weeks (batting in the .150's), Cody Ransom (replacement level player), Carlos Gomez (a very weak offensive player), etc... In fact, I trust Gallardo with a bat more than 4 of those players I just mentioned. And while LAD is not fielding murder's row, they still have Loney, Kemp and Either a slightly better combination than Hart, Braun, and Ramirez.


Given the edge in pitching and hitting, I made LAD around -160 before it came out. Most of the sharp money is probably backing Gallardo, but I have not seen enough consistency in Gallardo's starts to back him over Kershaw on the road. I don't blame people if they like MILW tonight, but I just don't see it. Kershaw handles righties almost as well as he does lefties and that should neutralize Hart, Braun and Ramirez. Whereas Gallardo has weaker numbers against lefty hitters (i.e. Loney, Either, Abreu, Herrara, etc..).


I recommend a play on LAD on anything < -160 tonight.

Awesome write up. I'll be giving you some coin

[BuddyBear]

you got all that from listening to the games on the radio?

i got all that but i just looked at 2 webpages.

good luck if you bet, dodgers offense is just as bad, like you said.

gallardo is in a groove right now. sure his bb's are up but his hits are down.
last 4 starts: 25.1 IP, 6 ER, 2.15 era, 14 h, 14 bb, 1.11 whip
15 ip 3 er last 2 starts vs LAD

kershaw is also good, we dont need to debate that.

-160 is too high, especially considering 85% on LAD.

There was a game last year where the Brewers had won the first 3 games against the Dodgers and they were looking to sweep them at home in late August I remember. The Brewers were like 40-8 at home at the time, and like 7 games ahead in the division. Kershaw opened up as a small favorite in that game and I remember distinctly saying to myself, there is no way the Brewers are even going to touch Kershaw in this game....even as good as they were last year. Well, obviously, he shut them out over 8 innings. This time, better team (LAD) against a much weaker MILW team. I see Kershaw going 7 innings, 1 run, 8K, 2BB.

[Frank-King]

you got all that from listening to the games on the radio?

i got all that but i just looked at 2 webpages.

good luck if you bet, dodgers offense is just as bad, like you said.

gallardo is in a groove right now. sure his bb's are up but his hits are down.
last 4 starts: 25.1 IP, 6 ER, 2.15 era, 14 h, 14 bb, 1.11 whip
15 ip 3 er last 2 starts vs LAD

kershaw is also good, we dont need to debate that.

-160 is too high, especially considering 85% on LAD.

The Dodgers offense has been very sub par but now they have Kemp in the lineup

[zoo youk]

sure looks like a coin flip to me....

[zoo youk]

they rank 3rd in NL in over all offense with 52 HRs and 198 RBI. but good luck laying your-160 on a coin flip.

if you know anything about baseball you know Gallardo has the tools if his mind is in the game to be an elite pitcher. he shows plenty of flashes of it.

[BuddyBear]

Well what can i say, Kershaw was awful tonight and I couldn't imagine the Brewers dominating him like they did tonight especially with Braun going 0-3 tnght. But that's the way baseball works.

Anyway, for what it is worth, the Brewers in their history have never swept a series against the Dodgers (3 or 4 games). So you know what that means: Take Brewers tomorrow for the series sweep.

[paco]

Lol...

[boeing power]

Nice value on a guy who has a career record of 0-3 with an ERA of 6.54 cool story bro!

This guy is quite possibly the dumbest prick on SBR.

I guess there was Great value on Gallardo at +150 moron

[Dancemanmarc2]

Perhaps it was a thread just to accumulate points naughty naughty sir

[ZetaPsi808]

i wish i had seen this thread earlier.

i would have alerted you guys that 80% of the moneyline bets on this game were on dodgers moneyline and the line dropped 4 cents from opener to closer

brewers moneyline was a no brainer

nailed it for a fuking unit at +150

[oChRoNiCo]

This guy is quite possibly the dumbest prick on
SBR.

I guess there was Great value on Gallardo at +150 moron

You stupid **** I never said LAD was the right play I commented that you claiming great value was not correct which is still the case! The line was off you picked the correct side but there was NOT value in Milwaukee last night the line should have been closer to Milwaukee +175 Moron

[brahmabull117]

that's baseball for ya. The best pitcher with the best offense can lose 10-0 and nobody blinks

[DudleyDawson]

i wish i had seen this thread earlier.

i would have alerted you guys that 80% of the moneyline bets on this game were on dodgers moneyline and the line dropped 4 cents from opener to closer

brewers moneyline was a no brainer

nailed it for a fuking unit at +150

This is how I make most all my bets. I don't waste one second trying to "handicap"

[brahmabull117]

This is how I make most all my bets. I don't waste one second trying to "handicap"

there are tons and tons of people who do that reverse money line bullcrap on this site and most of them don't do well at all. No coincidences, the ultimate reverse line movement king is down like 15 units for the season


The people who do well like Hawley and Acoochy just rely on "handicapping"

[ebbearsfb1]

Dd line service or free site?

[ShogunRua]

there are tons and tons of people who do that reverse money line bullcrap on this site and most of them don't do well at all. No coincidences, the ultimate reverse line movement king is down like 15 units for the season


The people who do well like Hawley and Acoochy just rely on "handicapping"

Hey Brah, why did you delete your entire spreadsheet after going on a losing streak and then put your Detroit pick in today like it was the first pick you've made? Thanks in advance.

[boeing power]

You stupid **** I never said LAD was the right play I commented that you claiming great value was not correct which is still the case! The line was off you picked the correct side but there was NOT value in Milwaukee last night the line should have been closer to Milwaukee +175 Moron

Go back to trolling the boys at SBR penny poker loser.

Keep picking those -160 faves and you will go broke soon.

After witnessing your failed MLB betting thread, you probably are.

[DudleyDawson]

there are tons and tons of people who do that reverse money line bullcrap on this site and most of them don't do well at all. No coincidences, the ultimate reverse line movement king is down like 15 units for the season


The people who do well like Hawley and Acoochy just rely on "handicapping"

You have an opinion on everything. You must know everything!