UFC 146 Selections

[BIGDAY]

Disclaimer... 0-1 my last 1 MMA wagers.



Going to be busy all weekend, so kinda bummed I'll be missing this card.

But I'll be getting the updated via cell phone. Couldn't really find anything to pound. But these are my leans for some action.

Risking 2 units Stefan Struve -120 I see Struve getting a sub within the first two rounds.

Risking 2 units CB Dollaway +120 I see this fight as close to EV as any.

Risking 2 units Jacob Volkman -205 Will probably be ugly but I think he finds the better of the scrambles.

Risking 2 units Roy Nelson -205 Don't see where he has a large disadvantage.

Risking 1 unit Dan Hardy -130

Risking .5 unit Kyle Kingsburry +180

Risking .5 unit Frank Mir +425 number might get better. Basically if this fight happens 4 times I see Mir being able to catch him once.

Lots of action.

Hope everyone has a great holiday weekend!!!

[Nick Papageorgio]

Only seeing about 1 winner for you this weekend pal.

[BIGDAY]

Only seeing about 1 winner for you this weekend pal.

Better than 0-7.

[getlucky2win]

Only seeing about 1 winner for you this weekend pal.

great breakdown bud. ima tail u 4sho. especially since ur thread is full of winners and bigday aint had a winning card in months

[acl123]

Way too many fukking leans. I was gonna tail but it'll take me at least 4days to place them all

[BIGDAY]

Thought about wagering every fight just for fun.

I guess I'm just a little frustrated that I couldn't pin at least one 3 uniter. Usually I can find at least one.

Disclaimer... 0-1 my last 1 wagers.

[getlucky2win]

dont like any of these fights alot. but i think mir only wins this fight one time outa 10. mir by sub. if u like mir and have that option. i dont c mir catching jds standing his footwork and boxing is 2 good.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I know its a small bet of yours, so perhaps its just a value bet, but why do you like Kingsbu, Bigday??

I was hoping glover would open close to even (perhaps open as a dog) because he is a relative uknown, but even at the current -200 ish odds I see lots of value. I could be overlooking / underestimating kyle, but outside of size and offensive wrestling, I think glover is far superior in every aspect of the game...

Even in his wins (outside of romero) kyle had tough fights and very close decisions, and doesn't seem esepcially good anywhere in the fight game. I will admit that I think kyle has fought better competition in his short zuffa run when compared to glover who really hasn't fought anyone of meaning lately...

Glover on the other hand is a beast on the feet, very nice clinch game to counter kyles (imo kyles best work is in the clinch but glover should counter it well), and a two time ADCC Brazil 1st and 2nd place qualifier (I think last year 2011 he qualified 2nd for all of brasil at under 99 kgs).. therefore -200 actually isn't that bad imo as I don't see glover having many disadvantages against kingsbu.. Perhaps I'm missing something? I'll admit I'm a bit concerned about first time zuffa jitters and how mentally sound glover is, but I would think you'd have pretty good fight iq/mental state if you've accomplished what he has. With odds in mind, glover is my top pick for a favorite as of right now..

What do you see that I'm missing / why you or anyone reading this like kingsbu??? I'm just surprised to see anyone liking kingsbu so I'm curious what you're reasoning is... I saw Ill liked him too!

[fosho14]

What do you see that I'm missing / why you or anyone reading this like kingsbu??? I'm just surprised to see anyone liking kingsbu so I'm curious what you're reasoning is...

I agree, Kinsbu has looked god awful even when victorious. How does kingsbury take this?

[Imsmarterthanu]

I agree, Kinsbu has looked god awful even when victorious. How does kingsbury take this?

By taking it to the ground, he's a strong dude

[MMAbetMASTA]

By taking it to the ground, he's a strong dude

I can't recall a fight though were he did any real damage when he got someone down... They always pop back up when taken down by kyle, I don't think anyone has spent too much time on the ground outside of razak, who also got top position on kingsbu twice... And going to the ground against glover who probably has better jitz skills than anyone he's faced wouldn't be the best idea imo... BUt I've over / under estimated guys before so who knows. I do agree that size / strenght (and I'll admit cardio is an unknown of mine for glover, but then again kingsbu's cardio is questionable too...) is a clear advantage for kyle, he's freakishly athletic but for being such an athlete he's pretty 'meh' in all aspects of the game imo..

[getlucky2win]

i was hoping to get glover at -140. i dont like betting guys in ufc debut. they can get adrenaline dump and tire early. im worried about kingsbury improving his game to go with his natural athletic ability. maybe price will come down. dont think i can play it at current odds

[GunShard]

I haven't seen a -500 or greater favorite in MMA lose a fight. I wouldn't get on that until it has happened.

[John Morrison]

good luck big day , will tail you on a few of these

[getlucky2win]

I haven't seen a -500 or greater favorite in MMA lose a fight. I wouldn't get on that until it has happened.

dude u already been called out on this n another thread. go away. hominick was -600 a few wks ago and lost. fckn trolls

[acl123]

Good luck Bigdayer

[Vitooch]

I haven't seen a -500 or greater favorite in MMA lose a fight. I wouldn't get on that until it has happened.

[Nick Papageorgio]

Bigday you will be selling that dock, time to start fishing off the shore pal.

[JohnGalt2341]

Only seeing about 1 winner for you this weekend pal.

I only like 2 of his picks as well. This means that he will likely get 5 right.

[BIGDAY]

My next vid could be fishin from shore.

[Nick Papageorgio]

How do you see Struve getting him down big day to get the sub bigday?

[BIGDAY]

How do you see Struve getting him down big day to get the sub bigday?

Standing guillotine.

[BIGDAY]

Honestly though... Everytime I don't think Struve can get a fight to the ground, he does just that.

[Nick Papageorgio]

He likes to try to out strike strikers is one of my concerns. Been going back and fourth on this one personally.

[JohnGalt2341]

I think it was mentioned in the SBR preview and I definitely agree with it... this fight will mostly likely end by Lavar KO or Struve Sub. I might end up playing both sides. Anyone know if any book has Prop odds up for this fight yet?

[Vitooch]

I think it was mentioned in the SBR preview and I definitely agree with it... this fight will mostly likely end by Lavar KO or Struve Sub. I might end up playing both sides. Anyone know if any book has Prop odds up for this fight yet?

http://bestfightodds.com/

[Educ8d Degener8]

I haven't seen a -500 or greater favorite in MMA lose a fight. I wouldn't get on that until it has happened.

two off the top of my head...

Penn vs Edgar I
Rolles Gracie vs Beltran

[raydog]

fedor lost back to backs at anywhere from -400 to -500 ... believe me, i fukking know all about it

[BIGDAY]

How do you see Struve getting him down big day to get the sub bigday?

I think he will pull guard and end it quickly by sub.. Lol

[BIGDAY]

Nice little profit tonight.

[JohnGalt2341]

I only like 2 of his picks as well. This means that he will likely get 5 right.

Congrats BigDay. I suspected you would get 5 right. That 5th one is going to be tough.

[Crassus]

you're kicking ass tonight man, congrats!

[BIGDAY]

Congrats BigDay. I suspected you would get 5 right. That 5th one is going to be tough.