Thunder Series Price +157

**seaborneq** · 05-25-12, 03:38 PM

Spurs should win this series, but thunder seem to be better equipped to get over hump.

**LT Profits** · 05-25-12, 03:57 PM

It's obvious the public loves OKC just from the percentages for Game 1, with 64% on Thunder ATS and 64% on Thunder MONEY LINE. (And yet both spread and ML have gone up)

**PAULYPOKER** · 05-25-12, 04:20 PM

San Antonio is the better team.................

**seaborneq** · 05-25-12, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by Kindred

If you like OKC why not take them ML for game 1 It's ~+200 if they lose you'll get a much better price on the series, if they win you will already have won more than the series bet pays.

I think you have something here. In fairness the game 1 winner probably sets the tone in the series and if it is the spurs you are probably assed out for the series too. No one would beat the spurs 4 out of 5 or 4 out of 6.

**lakerboy** · 05-25-12, 08:44 PM

Okc isn't losing this series. Public wins too.

**Speedy88** · 05-25-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Okc isn't losing this series. Public wins too.

Too early for OKC, they'll get there soon, but not this year.

**tatommack** · 05-25-12, 09:31 PM

Just really like okc here plus extra money is always nice

**BigDofBA** · 05-25-12, 09:59 PM

I said this in someone else's thread but I have a good feeling about OKC winning one of the first two games in San Antonio. I'm contemplating chasing them on the ML the first two games.

I also feel like the Spurs will win won out of 2 in OKC.

Basically, I'm saying the series will be tied 2-2 when it goes back to San Antonio for game 5. Whoever wins game 5, will win the series in 6.

I have to go with the Spurs since they are the home team in game five. I would love to be wrong here...

**PAYTON20** · 05-25-12, 10:18 PM

Spurs are unbeatable at home right now. I don't see OKC winning Game 1 at all

If anything I'd say Game 2 is more probable for OKC to steal one

**BigDofBA** · 05-25-12, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by PAYTON20

Spurs are unbeatable at home right now. I don't see OKC winning Game 1 at all

If anything I'd say Game 2 is more probable for OKC to steal one

OKC is playing really well too.

We're 7-1 in the playoffs and the Spurs are 8-0.

The only difference is, we have played stiffer competition and been tested in crunch time. I'm not saying OKC will win the series, I am saying we have a pretty decent shot at winning one in San Antonio.

I think the +210 odds is good enough to play.

**lakerboy** · 05-25-12, 10:29 PM

Pinny is all over okc game 1. I agree. The spurs will lose a very close game. People who think the spurs are unbeatable will quickly realize how good okc is. They struggled versus lal because lakers big 3 was a problem and lal had adv at key spots. Thunder will win this series in 6 games.

**Tofudog** · 05-25-12, 10:34 PM

Im still very unsure but I will most likely be backing OKC. Like others have said, wait to see the first game. I know if OKC wins I will be mad at myself for not taking them in the beginning..

Three factors I see which make me want to take the dogs are:
1) If an important player is to be hurt, chances are they play for S.A. 2) I think that Ibaka and Perkins will keep Duncan around 10 pts a game (Ibaka's long arms and athleticism wont leave him open at the top of the key like midget L.A.C. did) and 3) If the NBA is a little crooked, this could be pushed to 7 games even if Spurs deserve to win in 6

**BigDofBA** · 05-25-12, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Pinny is all over okc game 1. I agree. The spurs will lose a very close game. People who think the spurs are unbeatable will quickly realize how good okc is. They struggled versus lal because lakers big 3 was a problem and lal had adv at key spots. Thunder will win this series in 6 games.

I think San Antonio is the better team top to bottom but they aren't unbeatable like people make them out to be.

The #1 seed wasn't decided until the final week of the season. It's not like San Antonio ran away with it. They basically won it by one game (starters were rested the final game of the year for the Thunder).

If the Spurs had to play Dallas and the Lakers in the first two rounds they would have lost at least one game. As a matter of fact, Dallas beat the Spurs at the end of March and LA beat the Spurs during the month of April.

If you look at some of the teams the Spurs have beaten during this win streak, they aren't necessarily the OKC, Miami, and Boston's of the world. Also, the Clippers didn't have a healthy Chris Paul or Blake Griffin in the second round.

During this 18 game win streak the Spurs have beaten:

Utah 5x
Clipps 4x
Teams that didn't make the playoffs 7x

They beat up on a number 8 see that they were supposed to beat up on and they beat up on a banged up Clipper team.

San Antonio is still damn good. I'm just saying that they are overvalued right now. I would make them -3 in game one. The Thunder should be more like +155 not +210.

**lakerboy** · 05-25-12, 10:41 PM

So called "sharps" have corrected the series line without realizing that the books set them up with the off opener.

Don't forget books have a lot of spurs money to collect back.

**Tofudog** · 05-25-12, 10:57 PM

Damnit BigD... Your being that person who keeps putting out this information about the team Im already leaning on, and I get all excited and want to bet money right now when I know I shouldn't....

**Goat Milk** · 05-25-12, 11:15 PM

+170 and above now. This series is a toss up. Not betting it but Thunder have a shot to win for sure. Books don't think Thunder have a shot based on their price to win the championship and then the price on a SA-MIA finals matchup.

**BigDofBA** · 05-25-12, 11:20 PM

Basically, during this win streak San Antonio was beating up on teams that had already checked in for the season like Cleveland, Sacramento, Phoenix 2x, Golden State, and Portland. Then they bet the Jazz 5x who were the #8 seed and matched up horribly.

Two wins were against the Lakers but LA had already locked in the #3 seed. You're kidding yourself if you think LA gave a shit about those games.

When LA played the Spurs in a meaningful game they won by 14.

This line has been over adjusted imo. It's kind of like game 4 against the Clippers. The line was 7.5 and it should have been closer to 5.

San Antonio is a really good team but I think this "streak" everyone talks about is a bit of fools gold. They aren't 96 Bulls or the 01 Lakers. They won a bunch of games at the end of the year against teams that had quit playing and the Spurs were still playing for a #1 seed.

I think the Spurs win the seris but it won't be as easy as you people think. Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

**Gamble32jn** · 05-26-12, 01:25 AM

OKC are my boys and honestly im afraid they lose the series. I truly hope they win it but they are battling up hill. Spurs are super good this year and i can only pray okc wins the series.

Whoever wins this series will win the NBA championship 100%. Heat will make it to the championship but they wont win the whole thing.

If lakerboy was ever right, I hope ur right here and okc win this series. You can bet I will watch every game routing for my team but its gonna be a close call here for sure.

I dont see OKC covering the first game either but hey you never know, okc could be dead on and spurs could be off. If OKC can get 1 of the first 2 games at the spurs then its game on for sure and they will have a really good shot and I would see this series going the distance.

BOL to all

**Gamble32jn** · 05-26-12, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by PAYTON20

Spurs are unbeatable at home right now. I don't see OKC winning Game 1 at all

If anything I'd say Game 2 is more probable for OKC to steal one

You have made the same valid points as i have. I like your style..lol

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-26-12, 01:47 AM

BigD you seem to be going through a lot effort to talk the Spurs down.

OKC is very good and will eventually win a championship. Not their year yet though. Big Timmy gets #5.

**raydog** · 05-26-12, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

So called "sharps" have corrected the series line without realizing that the books set them up with the off opener.

Don't forget books have a lot of spurs money to collect back.

holy shit lakeshow, you and others have no fukking clue here and the wild guesses and line moving against you are making early okc backers look silly...and stop talking about value ...if you arent modeling consistent openers close to books openers, you have no idea what value is

..why do people think they see value when they have no idea how set it? +179 now...stop with the guessing shit guys...

**vinny808** · 05-26-12, 02:32 AM

OKC is no match for the Spurs. Its not Duncan > Ibaka, Durant > Ginobli. Papavich will make adjustments every game, every quarter, every half and stop OKC from doing what they do best. It doesnt matter that Duncan is old and Ibaka / Perkins may be able to guard him one on one. Papa will figure out how to get Duncan into position to make plays.

You can be damn sure Papa and his team have been looking over tapes of the OKC vs Lakers series and other games in the past. OKC is very beatable. If it wasn't careless turnovers by the Lakers and a little 4th quarter heroics, the Lakers could have been easily in the conferance finals instead of the Thunder.

Westbrook has been having a great post season. I think he'll revert back to his usual TO prone self in this series.
MVP of this series will be Greg Papavich

**aman86** · 05-26-12, 02:42 AM

This series is okc to lose spurs haven't played anybody

**MikeyD323** · 05-26-12, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Did you choose to ignore Durant on purpose?

get off durants nuts hes gna go cold, spurs take this series 4-1 or 4-2 and spank a depleted, overvalued heat in the finals.

**Koldazzice** · 05-26-12, 03:24 AM

Bottom line is Spurs have owned OKC and not only that they were owning OKC without 2 huge keys to this series
Boris Diaw and Stephan Jackson. Papovich is arguably the best coach in the game and lets not forget spurs dont just have a few guys who can shoot. Spurs are 10 deep with people who can drain it.

The fact that the line has moved so much even with more money on OKC should show you that the people who move lines are on the spurs (at least for now) Could be just to pump it up even more before putting in their massive real bet that is on OKC.

Nevertheless I took SA @ -170 (I have 850/500 on the spurs when all said and done) I will be looking to buy back 100/200 on okc before tip then hopefully get +300 if the spurs win game 1 - If that indeed does happen I will play OKC to cover my Spurs bet in full and have a free roll on the spurs.

Why not just bet spurs game 1? well if they lose game 1 I still have plenty of time to steal back home court and eventually win the series.

Thats my plan figure I would share lol

**Gamble32jn** · 05-26-12, 04:04 AM

Originally posted by aman86

This series is okc to lose spurs haven't played anybody

You make a good point there. I was saying the same thing last week. They might come out thinking they can handle OKC real easy and wind up losing the first game or maybe the first 2. Heck its the NBA so you never know what could happen..LOL

**grumpy64** · 05-26-12, 06:30 AM

Spurs in 6. lets not forget that spurs have dominated okc over the last couple seasons. Manu didn't even play in any of the meetings so far this year. Only way okc wins is if their big 3 just goes crazy. Spurs will dominate the boards. and they have an advantage at the point guard spot. Those are the main 2 reasons that they will win. That and they have the best coach in the game. If you bet on okc you had better hope those jumpers are falling.

**LT Profits** · 05-26-12, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by raydog

holy shit lakeshow, you and others have no fukking clue here and the wild guesses and line moving against you are making early okc backers look silly...and stop talking about value ...if you arent modeling consistent openers close to books openers, you have no idea what value is

..why do people think they see value when they have no idea how set it? +179 now...stop with the guessing shit guys...

If the Spurs hold at -5.5 in Game 1, the fair value on Thunder for series is +190, s0 +179 is still not good enough.

**LT Profits** · 05-26-12, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

The Thunder should be more like +155 not +210.

Take opinions out of it and just work the numbers, and you get +190 as fair price. If +210 is REALLY available somewhere, than that's great for OKC. I see nothing higher than +179.

**LT Profits** · 05-26-12, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

OKC is playing really well too.

We're 7-1 in the playoffs and the Spurs are 8-0.

The only difference is, we have played stiffer competition and been tested in crunch time. I'm not saying OKC will win the series, I am saying we have a pretty decent shot at winning one in San Antonio.

I think the +210 odds is good enough to play.

Where are you seeing +210? That would be a great price.

**grumpy64** · 05-26-12, 06:47 AM

To all the people saying the spurs are the public play you might wanna take a look at any of the numerous bet tracking sites out there. Okc is getting over 60 percent of the action.

**grumpy64** · 05-26-12, 07:04 AM

take spurs series and mart kc o win atleast 1 game. Spurs will win but no way okc doesn't win at least 1 game

**The Prick** · 05-26-12, 09:48 AM

okc cant/wont guard 3-point line

no answer for TD

defensive rotation not good once ibaka is out of paint'

spurs cant guard durant

spurs control boards

okc offense set up by individual efforts, spurs offense set up by passing

spurs in 5

**KingJD31** · 05-26-12, 09:53 AM

I'm leaning spurs but can't help but think westbrook can d Parker up and if Parker isn't effective how they gonna win? Tough call

**DudleyDawson** · 05-26-12, 09:54 AM

People see a +157 line and say "wow that's a dam good price".........when they should be saying "wow I thought OKC should maybe be +120/+130 here, maybe the books are trying to bait me in with this great +157 price"..