Arizona + 108 over Colorado is my afternoon play

[stevenash]

Pitcher match up favors Snakes with Cahill.
Forget about the 2-4 record, Cahill has solid numbers, 1.22 WH/IP ratio is much better than the league average, his ERA is sound at 3.65

Rockies as a team are only 7 for 46 against Cahill, only one being for extra bases, a Car-Go double.
Tulo is hit less v. Cahill, plus he's not 100 percent.

COLORADO ROCKIES CAREER STATISTICS VS. TREVOR CAHILL
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tyler Colvin	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.167	.167	.167	.333
Michael Cuddyer	11	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	.091	.167	.091	.258
Jason Giambi	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Carlos Gonzalez	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	1.500	2.000
Todd Helton	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.500	.000	.500
Jonathan Herrera	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Chris Nelson	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Wilin Rosario	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.667	.500	1.167
Marco Scutaro	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	.000	.667	.000	.667
Troy Tulowitzki	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.000	.200	.000	.200
Eric Young Jr.	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Totals	40	7	0	1	0	0	7	9	.175	.313	.225	.538

Rockies start Nicasio, who despite looking good his last start versus LA Dodgers, has been allowing base runners all season, throws too many pitches, which accounts for the high WH/IP ratio of 1.48 and ERA of 4.65.

Looking at this game logs this season, he benefits from run support from the Rockie offense, getting six and eight runs in his two victories (2-1)

Can't use the small sample of D-Backs at bats versus Nicasio, because, well 5 for 11 is too small.

Nicasio isn't very efficient with his pitches, throws about 100 a game, barely gets out of the sixth, if he needs to turn the game over to that crappy bullpen of Brothers, Bettancourt, and the rest of those gas-cans, in the sixth, I don't see a Arizona loss.

Arizona with Cahill is a run better in this spot than the Rockies with Nicasio, I am looking for Cahill to once again control the Rockie bats, I am looking for the Snakes to push across 4 runs off Nicasio, both teams aren't going to play meaningful October games this season, but this game has D-back winning 6-2.

Zona +108 is my play

[No coincidences]

With all that being said, why did Colorado open at +102 and is now -115?

[JMobile]

I don't know why, but I am..........

[5teamparlay]

I'll take Colorado


Rockies are 9-2 in Nicasios last 11 home starts.

[5teamparlay]

Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Cahills last 5 starts

[stevenash]

Then fade me.

[Smutbucket]

i like this play stevenash im on it


also I like the under in this game

[dj_destroyer]

Not gonna tail but stevenash is generally money.

[EXhoosier10]

With all that being said, why did Colorado open at +102 and is now -115?

Coin, the majority of the bets I made that had movement on my side lost. While I prefer to have a number move in my direction, you're smart enough to know that even 17 cents of movement doesn't guarantee a winner.

While i don't believe that hitter v. pitcher data for 4 AB's is of any significance, I'm with DJ when I say that nash has been cash on these threads.

If I were forced to pick, I'd probably go with Colorado, but this thing is a toss-up in my opinion and is priced as such.

[Pete0]

seems liek a toss up game.

Good luck though, hope u cash

[No coincidences]

Coin, the majority of the bets I made that had movement on my side lost. While I prefer to have a number move in my direction, you're smart enough to know that even 17 cents of movement doesn't guarantee a winner.

While i don't believe that hitter v. pitcher data for 4 AB's is of any significance, I'm with DJ when I say that nash has been cash on these threads.

If I were forced to pick, I'd probably go with Colorado, but this thing is a toss-up in my opinion and is priced as such.

I'm not saying line movement guarantees anything Ex -- far from it -- just wondering why this would occur if the numbers stacked so heavily in Arizona's favor, especially given Colorado opened at a + number.

[onacloud]

While i don't believe that hitter v. pitcher data for 4 AB's is of any significance

Exactly

Plus the Rockies have been money at home when Nicasios is pitching

I'm on the Rockies -113 for 2u but good luck Nash one of us will be happy

[stevenash]

^^^

Can't use the small sample of D-Backs at bats versus Nicasio, because, well 5 for 11 is too small.

I believe I said the same thing in the OP

I said I can't use it in my 'capping.

Hey, I'm just saying 'Zona is a run better in the starting pitching department.
If goes south, it goes south, so be it, I'm getting +0.08 on a game I believe 'Zona should be -110

Good luck all

[onacloud]

^^^


I believe I said the same thing in the OP

I said I can't use it in my 'capping.

Hey, I'm just saying 'Zona is a run better in the starting pitching department.
If goes south, it goes south, so be it, I'm getting +0.08 on a game I believe 'Zona should be -110

Good luck all

[Ambition]

No run in the 1st Inning for this game. +135

[cankid]

thx gl fellas

[stevenash]

Nicasio isn't very efficient with his pitches, throws about 100 a game, barely gets out of the sixth, if he needs to turn the game over to that crappy bullpen of Brothers, Bettancourt, and the rest of those gas-cans, in the sixth, I don't see a Arizona loss.

Case in point, even though Nicasio got out of the first, he was a pitch away from walking the bases loaded, needed 23 pitches to get out of the first.

[stevenash]

Nice time for Tulo to get his first hit off him.

D'oh

[5teamparlay]

Case in point, even though Nicasio got out of the first, he was a pitch away from walking the bases loaded, needed 23 pitches to get out of the first.

Nicasio takes a No No to the 2nd up 2-0. Get some!!!!

[5teamparlay]

Looking like easy money on Colorado.

[EXhoosier10]

Looking like easy money on Colorado.

Hard to believe you're calling this "easy money" considering Colorado leads the league in blown saves....

[stevenash]

^
And the Snakes just made it a one run game, with the tying run on second, and they are still at bat.
And I did 'cap this game with the gas cans that is the Rox in mind.

[onacloud]

1 run game just like that Rockies bullpen better lock down

[onacloud]

boom tie game

[stevenash]

1 run game just like that Rockies bullpen better lock down

The Rockie bull pen doesn't know the meaning of the words 'lock down'

Brothers, Rogers, Reynolds and Bettancourt all are brutal.

[Kalis]

Kubel 3-run HR

[sweethook]

nice info steve , gl

[stevenash]

Kubel 3-run HR

umm, 1 run single, but I'll take it.

5-4 Snakes

[Kalis]

Kubel!!!

[marcojuiceman]

I tailed you on this one

[a4u2fear]

Steve is the man, listen up

[onacloud]

unreal

[stevenash]

Looking like easy money on Colorado.

Feel free to mush yourself in my thread anytime.

"Instant Karma is going to get you"
-John Lennon

Thanks for dropping by, come back again, real soon.

[Kalis]

Keeping the line moving!

[stevenash]

unreal

I said it in the very first post, Nicasio (who is overrated to begin with) is not efficient with his pitches, he pitches almost 100 every game, and never sees the seventh, and when you back a 6 inning pitcher like Nicasio,you better have a 7-8-9 inning train, not the gas cans the Rox have in the 'pen.

If you back Nicasio, you better hope he leaves the 7th with a 5 run + lead, or you are going to sweat the last 45 minutes of the game.