Like to share this with the forum........

[Fishhead]

Posted this across the street and for those that do not frequent there, I copied and pasted my thoughts about a situational play this Monday night............




1. Since 1980, teams with a 1-3 record off a straight-up loss are 85-56 ATS.

2. If the above team is facing a team off a straight win in the above #1 scenario, they are 49-19 ATS.

3. If the team we are backing qualifies for the above #1 and #2 scenarios and they are favored or a dog of less than seven points, they are 45-12 ATS.


MINNESOTA fits #3 this MONDAY NIGHT............a situation where a team in this situation has covered 45 of the past 57 times.

Not a system player by any means, but I like the theory behind this one and the records prove it to have tremendous merit. The theory is a team with a 1-3 record is facing a very important game.......an almost "do or die" situation for their season, as they do not want to fall to 1-4. Also, it is well documented that many NFL coaches breakdown the season into four sets of four games........thus, this is game #1 of the 2nd set of four, and as mentioned, are facing a situation where they do not want to fall to 1-4.

The other factors involved in this "theory/system"(team off a loss, opponent off a win, low spread).......provides the intangible value needed to produce the results that it has accomplished.

I believe I posted a few games that fit this system a couple years ago in this forum(not sure if it won or lost).

AS ALWAYS, BET WITH YOUR HEAD, NOT OVER IT. iN FACT, DONT WAGER THIS GAME IF YOU DONT LIKE IT. IF YOU HAVE A SMALL LEAN ON THE VIKINGS ALREADY, PERHAPS THIS WILL PUT YOU OVER THE TOP TO WAGER IT.

To be honest, this appears to be a very scary game............I personally am just going to close my eyes and pull the trigger and play the above percentages that have played out over the years.

Hopefully, we will have a play next week on a 1-3 team that fits this bill.


Take care all,

-FH-

[onthewhat]

stick to slots pal

[Nicky Santoro]

past games mean nothing. it's the past.. everything in monday's game will have no bearing on past games.. it's irrelevant. IF i flip 30 coins now and get 26 heads, which is very possible.. will it be a good bet to take heads on the next flip? it's total coincidence these stats.. anything can happen over such a small sample size like this.. tell us when they are 67% over 2,300 games.. not 50 or so games..

Also, all those great stats are already applied into these lines, trust me. you dont think these linesmakers know about this trend? trust me, they do.. it has been already applied into the line, so no advantage here. NFL lines are very sharp.. NFL linesmakers cannot be fooled.... alot of research is put into these lines..

[SlickFazzer]

It is difficult to take stock in most trends.

[Fishhead]

past games mean nothing. it's the past.. everything in monday's game will have no bearing on past games.. it's irrelevant. IF i flip 30 coins now and get 26 heads, which is very possible.. will it be a good bet to take heads on the next flip? it's total coincidence these stats.. anything can happen over such a small sample size like this.. tell us when they are 67% over 2,300 games.. not 50 or so games..

Also, all those great stats are already applied into these lines, trust me. you dont think these linesmakers know about this trend? trust me, they do.. it has been already applied into the line, so no advantage here. NFL lines are very sharp.. NFL linesmakers cannot be fooled.... alot of research is put into these lines..

Nicky, I was once associated with a group that initiated the lines for Vegas............unlike CFB, NFL lines are much more tight and an easier line to make, as Im sure you well know.

With this thread, not attempting topersuade anyone to wager this just for the above reasons........just give them something to consider. Do what you want with it...........and if dishing it is your decision, that is fine and TOTALLY UNDERSTANDABLE with me.

As stated, I do like the theory behind this one, and it's one that the the masses of John Q. Public knows nothing about.

[Nicky Santoro]

playing trends will make you go broke. i know friends who call me up and say.. omg nicky, play the redsox today.. they are 39-11 at home, 24-2 in day games, 21-4 on saturday day games, 34-9 on grass when it's sunny and over 87 degrees...and royals are 9-34 on grass on the road in aft games....

yeah whatever steve..


btw, final score.. KC 15 BOS 2..


whatever happened in the past, has no effect on what will happen in the next game.. it's the freakin past and the line is already applied in it. these books are right on top of all this.... that's why the books make so much in the long haul. cause of geniuses who really think they have something on the books with these trends... and then they go broke, like everyone of my friends who play trends..

[Fishhead]

By the way, as is the forum world, if the Vikings do not cover, you will see no less than ten posters coming in here to say something negative about the result.........

On the other hand, if it wins, it will go by the wayside.

KNOWING THIS, I STILL LIKE TO PROVIDE BETTORS WITH SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.

I fully do not expect, OR WANT, any poster to play games blindly............always been a proponent of players making their own decisions.

I LOVE TO SEE PLAYERS WIN............

[Fishhead]

NICKY---I disagree with you..........

I think trends can and do play a part in handicapping.......however small in some instances.

Having been in this game on both sides of the counter for 25+ years now, I understand what you are stating and respect your thoughts on the subject.

I think in many cases, you are PRECISELY correct.........but in certain cases, I think trends can be very valuable(and that is not saying this one is), although in the grand scheme of things, it is a solid trend ...........at this time(mainly because 99%+ no nothing of it). Again, one can certainly come up with a trend that can back the SAINTS just as well.........so I understand your position............and is one I can point to in most instances myself.

NOT A TREND OR SYSTEM player perse myself........so lets make that clear.

Cheers,
FH

[englishmike]

IF i flip 30 coins now and get 26 heads, which is very possible.. will it be a good bet to take heads on the next flip?

So true. It never ceases to amaze me how many experienced gamblers give retarded answers to the coin flip scenario. I have friends who are pretty clued up gambling wise and have gambled their whole lives, who will tell you they would bet tails if heads comes up on the 30 previous occasions because: 'Tails is due.' Tails will always have a 50% chance of occuring, it's never 'due.'

[Fishhead]

So true. It never ceases to amaze me how many experienced gamblers give retarded answers to the coin flip scenario. I have friends who are pretty clued up gambling wise and have gambled their whole lives, who will tell you they would bet tails if heads comes up on the 30 previous occasions because: 'Tails is due.' Tails will always have a 50% chance of occuring, it's never 'due.'

It is amazing.......stand by a roulette table for any length of time and you will experience this at its finest.

[englishmike]

The funny thing is, I totally get what they mean, it is 'due.' The only problem is, heads is equally as due given the math.

[Nicky Santoro]

NO JOKE.. i once saw 16 straight reds on a roulette wheel.. my buddies had a plan to go there and if a color comes out 3 times in a row... they'd start pounding the opposite, cause it's due... LOL.. well, all 4 buddies i went with went home with no money after red kept popping up.. they insisted table was fixed.. red will not even out after 3 spins, OR 10 or 50 or 500 spins..It will ONLY even out after 100,000 or more plus spins, or even a million spins..

a few yrs ago, oakland had won 5 in a row and people started telling me to start pounding the other side because they are DUE to lose.. well, they kept saying this after 9 in row, 14 in a row..etc.. they ended up winning 20 in a row.

our buddy jjgold does this too.. lol.. i remember once the overs went 7-2 on a tuesday, and then said we should all bet unders now for wed cause the overs can't keep winning like this, cause they're due..lol

How can you not love this guy??

[englishmike]

My other favorite is when people say: 'the roulette is fixed.' That makes me laugh so fvckin hard I nearly piss myself. With two zero's there's 38 numbers and only one can win per spin, thus giving 37 losers per spin....why would anyone need to cheat? lol

[Nicky Santoro]

fishler,

whether vikes win or not,, i will not come in here and say, i told you so.. it's not my style.. and if it wins or loses, i will still say, that it just landed on that side of the coin..

i bet with some friends on coin flips (no vig) and sometimes when we flip 4 straight heads, a buddy would want to bet 100 bucks with me that next flip would be tails.. so i bet it just to prove point.. and it will be tails, and i will lose.. and they think it's because it was due, and they tell me, i told you so.. i told you so.. easy money.. it wasn't easy money. it just happened to land that way. but they forget that out of the 46 or so flips we've had in that 40 min span, that 32 were tails, meaning, if anything, heads was due to catch up a bit and come close to 50%, but they only look at 4 straight and think it's due, when in reality, heads was due. each flip is 50-50..

just like when jj says unders are due because overs went 6-1 last night.. but what if the 6 previous nights, the unders went 52-28.. why is the under due? shouldn't the over be due? people think that just because they went only 6-1 over 7 lousy games, that under is due..

i am also guilty of this, just like i am sure 96% of posters here do this too.. lets say there are 3 playoff ball games today and the first 2 went way under.. sometimes we think, hey, they are due for some runs in the last game because both games stayed way under, OR... when 14 games on sunday, the overs went 13-1, so you think that the late game now will for sure go under cause it's due.. but it's not due.. and if it does go under, it's just a coincidence and the coin landed on the right side, not because I was right, it was due.. because if overs were 13-1 before that night game, what if unders prior to that day were 54-28 in the last 6 days? then what was due for that game, the under, cause the overs were 13-1 today, OR the over, cause the unders were 54-28 prior to today, and they have to even out in long run?

DUE DOES NOT EXIST IN SPORTS.. EVER............

[pat venditto]

nicky i was scouting the roulette table. red hit 6 times in a row. i double down until i was broke on black. hit 13 times in a row.

[reno cool]

Better to bet with streaks than against them, in things like roulette. Just in case something is rigged which we're not aware.

I believe Fisheads analysis has some merit. Although sample is small the win % is huge. Plus he gives reasons why this might be happening.

Although I'm not crazy about his style, I'm pretty confident that Fishead understands the significance of a coin flip, and you'd be wise to consider whats said instead of looking to dismiss.

[donjuan]

IF i flip 30 coins now and get 26 heads, which is very possible.. will it be a good bet to take heads on the next flip?

Are you using the same coin for each flip?

[treece]

DUE DOES NOT EXIST IN SPORTS.. EVER............

Nicky, remember last year the Rockies won like 27 in a row. Everyone was saying oh they're due to lose. People went bankrupt betting against them.

[TodaysAction]

Thanks for the data.

Never ceases to amaze me that when a person presents some solid figures to make a point (trends) that many will chime in with .

[Fishhead]

Bump

[etothep]

Are you using the same coin for each flip?

haha, that was my question

[Cheme82]

Trends are a valuable tool in handicapping, but it should not be the main or the only tool used to make a wager. I see it as a tie-breaker kind of thing, used sometimes but not often.

When a strong trend is going on (say a team covers 6 times in a row under XYZ conditions) it is better to go with the trend than against it. The trend will end when they fail to cover, but don't you think after they covered 3, 4, or 5 times in a row that some people went against them because they were "due" not to cover?

My point is that you are safer riding a current trend than betting against it and hoping this is the game when the trend ends.

Same thing in Roulette, if I see red come up 8 times in a row, I still think the next spin is 50/50 but if I am betting a color you bet your ass I'm going with red, just in case there is some weird shit going on that I am not aware of. Worst case scenario I lose with Red in a 50/50 proposition (ignoring the 0 nad 00), best case scenario I win with Red (wether because of pure luck or a rigged or unbalanced roulette, God knows).

YTD

NFL
10-4-1 32.95 units

CFB
9-9 -2.25 units

[3PtShooter]

thanks fishhead nice heads up play,,,keep them coming

[Chi_archie]

I have a pretty decent understanding of statistics, and I totally understand the coin analogy.... and I agree with nicky up above with "no such thing as due"... when it comes to under/overs on a whole.... as in looking at the whole slate of game for sunday afternoon having a 13-1 under record has no bearing on the sunday night game. It is not any more or less likely to go over or under because of the prior 14 games.


However...when it comes to teams and more likely individuals I think the coin analogy is not as useful.... with a coin you are dealing with an inanimate object and two outcomes. With human beings it become much more complex..


I guess the best example I can give is a scenerio like the following. A well known baseball star is mired in a slump. maybe even a 0-29 slump.. Let's say its someone like tony gwynn or wade boggs back in the day.... a very skilled hitter. let's say its they are in the prime of their career...not on the decline. Have had a .338 avg lifetime, never hit under .300 in their career. .358, .394, .368 the last 3 years. He is a notoriously better hitter in the summer months and post all star with a career split of .318 pre allstar and .363 post all-star.

so he has an 0-29 slump and hits .204 for the month of june, bringing his average down to .304... Now where would you put your money on a bet for the fictional player to hit for the month of july or from june 31 to the season's end.


under .304 or over .304???? if you had to lay down your whole bankroll what would you do?

the above illustrates a bit of trends and the human element involved in handi-capping human beings verse capping a coin flip...

i don't buy into most trends..but some do have some interesting rationales behind them.... I think some trends can capture a statistical snap shot of a human phenomenon at work over a course of many games and/or seasons.

some players can't hit anywhere near as good in dome's as day baseball..

in the nfl a pretty reliable trend is the west coast team traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 game...... that is a trend that reflects a collective human element involved in the game..... You can flip a coin 24-7 and it doesn't get tired or un-motivated or psyched up to avoid going 1-4 out of 5 coin flips...as is the case with the vikings trying to avoid going 1-4 tonight.


so although i'm not a big trend guy and also do feel that one game is not connected to another... the human species can be studied over long periods of time and certain predictable behaviors will start to emerge.

I think fish's trend has a bit of truth to it... its not somthing wager because of...but it might tip the scales in you're favor of you already had a lean.

[JoshW]

You at least got the line move Fishhead. Nice call.

[Chi_archie]

thanks for trend fish... hope you cashed

[masr]

Fish,

Definetly some enticing numbers in that trend....thanks for the info I rode with it...!! Minn Hit !!!
I took the pts and parleyed ML w/ over!! nice hit!!
Also thanks for all the college and NFL calls....you pretty much seem to always come through,
keep up the good work

[Fishhead]

Fish,

Definetly some enticing numbers in that trend....thanks for the info I rode with it...!! Minn Hit !!!
I took the pts and parleyed ML w/ over!! nice hit!!
Also thanks for all the college and NFL calls....you pretty much seem to always come through,
keep up the good work

e

Thanks, it always been my main attention is to help people make money, or save money in this business, whatever the case may be.

Would like to state something here......sometimes some of my posts will come off as being cocky or self-promoting......but this is not intended to pump my personal ego, but rather to have posters that are not familar with my background to understand where I've been and what I do for a living. I'm way to old to be looking for self-gratification.


I love to see players win, and want them to do so consistantly........be it by being on the right side of a game more times than not, or just learning the value of certain betting methods(buying half points, +ev teasers, percentages that numbers land, etc., etc).

Will leave you with this thought..........remember, getting the best number is of the essence in this business. It will improve your chances of winning substantially over the longterm and is more valuable than any trend or statistic in the world.




JoshW--In a high percentage of my plays, the number will move.........be it by me knowing where the number is going, or simply because many people read my picks on the various forums, players and bookmakers.

[JoshW]

JoshW--In a high percentage of my plays, the number will move.........be it by me knowing where the number is going, or simply because many people read my picks on the various forums, players and bookmakers.

Fishhead, I love you posting information, I have no doubt about the first part that you might know where the number is moving sometimes, but come on. You posting an angle in the forums is not going to cause the line to move on a MNF game. The angle might cause it, but the post won't.

Congrats on the win.

[PuckOff]

playing trends will make you go broke. i know friends who call me up and say.. omg nicky, play the redsox today.. they are 39-11 at home, 24-2 in day games, 21-4 on saturday day games, 34-9 on grass when it's sunny and over 87 degrees...and royals are 9-34 on grass on the road in aft games....

yeah whatever steve..


btw, final score.. KC 15 BOS 2..


whatever happened in the past, has no effect on what will happen in the next game.. it's the freakin past and the line is already applied in it. these books are right on top of all this.... that's why the books make so much in the long haul. cause of geniuses who really think they have something on the books with these trends... and then they go broke, like everyone of my friends who play trends..

Nicky,
What about the NHL and especially when Toronto visits Buffalo?
Same with Phoenix at home against Detroit.

[Fishhead]

Fishhead, I love you posting information, I have no doubt about the first part that you might know where the number is moving sometimes, but come on. You posting an angle in the forums is not going to cause the line to move on a MNF game. The angle might cause it, but the post won't.

Congrats on the win.

Josh- i have personal friends of mine from my Vegas days that now reside offshore and are running books..............and more than a couple are regular readers of TheRX, SBR, COVERS, etc, etc........all places that I post at. Many times, they will shade the number immediately upon seeing my play.

Also, after being in this business for over 20 years and being an active participant in forums for 8+ years, many back my selections, many that bet the limit at certain shops.......some that have low and high limits.

Skybook is one book where you will more times than not see a line move(however small) on many of my detailed selections within two hours or less.

BY THE WAY, THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON A HIGHLY MONEY GENERATED GAME LIKE MNF..............So you are correct in that regard for sure.

[Fishhead]

Nicky,
What about the NHL and especially when Toronto visits Buffalo?
Same with Phoenix at home against Detroit.

Allow me to interject........these are scenarios where the line is already factored in much more than some other trends..........most everyone is aware of these.

Trends should certainly not be ignored.......they all have to have a certain degree of credibility and then it is up to the bettor to decide how much they have influenced the line and more importantly, the relevance they have in betting the game.............most will be very insignificant.

[Fishhead]

Allow me to interject........these are scenarios where the line is already factored in much more than some other trends..........most everyone is aware of these.

Trends should certainly not be ignored.......they all have to have a certain degree of credibility and then it is up to the bettor to decide how much they have influenced the line and more importantly, the relevance they have in betting the game.............most will be very insignificant.

Look at it this way.............if I gave you two choices, which would you choose.........


1. Betting team at +3.5 when the line is +3 everywhere or......

2. Betting the above team at +3 because of a certain trend that is 20-0 over the past 15 years?


Almost always, you will be far better off in the longterm if you choose #1 in the above scenario.


But, trends should still not be overlooked, as I've stated...........trends are very important, just in different degrees.

[Fishhead]

Posted this across the street and for those that do not frequent there, I copied and pasted my thoughts about a situational play this Monday night............




1. Since 1980, teams with a 1-3 record off a straight-up loss are 85-56 ATS.

2. If the above team is facing a team off a straight win in the above #1 scenario, they are 49-19 ATS.

3. If the team we are backing qualifies for the above #1 and #2 scenarios and they are favored or a dog of less than seven points, they are 45-12 ATS.


MINNESOTA fits #3 this MONDAY NIGHT............a situation where a team in this situation has covered 45 of the past 57 times.

Not a system player by any means, but I like the theory behind this one and the records prove it to have tremendous merit. The theory is a team with a 1-3 record is facing a very important game.......an almost "do or die" situation for their season, as they do not want to fall to 1-4. Also, it is well documented that many NFL coaches breakdown the season into four sets of four games........thus, this is game #1 of the 2nd set of four, and as mentioned, are facing a situation where they do not want to fall to 1-4.

The other factors involved in this "theory/system"(team off a loss, opponent off a win, low spread).......provides the intangible value needed to produce the results that it has accomplished.

I believe I posted a few games that fit this system a couple years ago in this forum(not sure if it won or lost).

AS ALWAYS, BET WITH YOUR HEAD, NOT OVER IT. iN FACT, DONT WAGER THIS GAME IF YOU DONT LIKE IT. IF YOU HAVE A SMALL LEAN ON THE VIKINGS ALREADY, PERHAPS THIS WILL PUT YOU OVER THE TOP TO WAGER IT.

To be honest, this appears to be a very scary game............I personally am just going to close my eyes and pull the trigger and play the above percentages that have played out over the years.

Hopefully, we will have a play next week on a 1-3 team that fits this bill.


Take care all,

-FH-

UPDATE-

Winner with the VIKINGS on Monday for a 3 unit play........

This week we have two teams that fit the criteria with the 1-3 record but ONLY qualifies on just the first trend, thus will ONLY BEING PLAYING BOTH FOR ONE UNIT EACH, which means no matter what, the "system" will have produced another winning season for me.

The two plays this week are........

OAKLAND

SEATTLE


Take care,
-fh-