Mets +109 (Satana) over Miami is my play tonight.

[stevenash]

Santana's last start was an aberration, throw that game out, that was just one of those things, trust me, I've been keeping my eye on him since the day pitchers and catchers reported.

He's healthy, he just had one of those outings last week, nothing more, nothing less.
Look at his first two starts, the were solid.

Miami can't him him Santana, and Mets do hit JJ a little bit.
Plus, I think Josh Johnson isn't the super pitcher people made him out to be 3 years ago.
He's very hittable.

I personally think manager Terry Collins ripped his team a new asshole today, he's that type of manager, I like him.
Mets should play tonight with a chip on their shoulder, and with a purpose.

Santana should dominate that Miami lineup, I'm throwing out his last start, I'm wagering 3* +109 on Santana, I think he goes 7 strong innings tonight, giving up 1 earned, striking out 6.
(plus, every time I bet Santana when he was in Minny, he was money for me, he's one of my favorite pitchers to bet on, he almost always delivers for me, he'll do it again tonight).

[stevenash]

MIAMI MARLINS CAREER STATISTICS VS. JOHAN SANTANA
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Emilio Bonifacio	12	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	.083	.083	.083	.167
John Buck	17	4	0	1	0	4	1	5	.235	.278	.353	.631
Chris Coghlan	6	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Omar Infante	39	8	0	0	0	3	1	9	.205	.238	.205	.443
Austin Kearns	15	2	1	0	0	0	0	3	.133	.133	.200	.333
Donnie Murphy	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Hanley Ramirez	21	3	0	0	0	0	2	7	.143	.217	.143	.360
Jose Reyes	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Gaby Sanchez	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	.800	.800	1.000	1.800
Totals	121	25	2	1	0	8	4	30	.207	.236	.240	.476

[paco]

Is Ike Davis gonna be in the mets lineup today? If so, might have to pass

[High3rEl3m3nt]

playing with a purpose and trying harder are concepts that never really translate to baseball. In fact, I'd argue it's the opposite. Simplifying the game and staying loose are the keys for hitters and pitchers alike. If a pitcher tries too hard to locate his fastball, he'll miss the zone completely. Same for batters, the harder you try to hit, the more likely a negative consequence will occur.

Not necessarily disagreeing with your play, just the premise.

In fact, along those lines, I feel like Johan has accepted where he's at in his career, whereas Johnson is trying to be the pitcher he once was. He's going to try harder, rather than letting his game--which might have to be completely different, find him.

[hydrosmak]

Is Ike Davis gonna be in the mets lineup today? If so, might have to pass

Guy has about as much motion in a swing as I have ever seen. Just change speeds on him and he is toast. How the heck did he make it to the majors?

[mp5070]

[zoo youk]

Nasher, Santana isn't right atm. That shoulder surgery really has affected his command. He's always in 3 ball counts and he's walking almost 6 per nine innings while only striking out two. He's thrown 3000 pitches already this year and close to 1300 of them have been balls. Be careful. Plus he was on the decline before he had surgery. He's not the same guy.

[BathingApe]

I'm on the marlins tonight. Looking for Reyes to bust out here. It's almost like Lincecum yesterday, I think jj gets a win here.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Nasher, Santana isn't right atm. That shoulder surgery really has affected his command. He's always in 3 ball counts and he's walking almost 6 per nine innings while only striking out two. He's thrown 3000 pitches already this year and close to 1300 of them have been balls. Be careful. Plus he was on the decline before he had surgery. He's not the same guy.

If Johan were to average 100 pitches a game, 3000 pitches would put him at logging in 30 games already. Not sure where you're getting that number.

[stevenash]

^
good luck, I appreciate opposing points of view, feeling here is Santana will be sharp tonight.
Let's see.

[stevenash]

If Johan were to average 100 pitches a game, 3000 pitches would put him at logging in 30 games already. Not sure where you're getting that number.

Dunno either?

REGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH APRIL 23, 2012															YEAR TO DATE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	GSc	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
Apr 17	@ ATL	L 9-3	1.1	4	6	4	0	1	0	5	5	55	11	25	L(0-2)	-	3.97
Apr 11	vs WSH	L 4-0	5.0	5	1	1	0	3	8	4	7	99	22	58	L(0-1)	-	0.90
Apr 5	vs ATL	W 1-0	5.0	2	0	0	0	2	5	4	8	84	19	66	-	-	0.00
Monthly Totals			11.1	11	7	5	0	6	13	13	20	238	52	--	0-2	0 sv	3.97
			IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	AGS	W-L	S-BS-H	ERA
Totals			11.1	11	7	5	0	6	13	13	20	238	52	50	0-2	0-0-0	3.97

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I don't think it's a bad play, just saw the Mets' lineup though...really think Turner should get a start...Bay must be injured..or in discomfort.

[stevenash]

Nieuwenhuis CF
Tejada SS
Murphy 2B
Wright 3B
Duda RF
Davis 1B
Baxter LF
Thole C
(Santana P)

[mandude]

I like the Mets tonight. Don't forget Mia is hitting .194 vs lefties this year too. I think people are looking into each pitchers last start too much. Santana got shelled against a very hot Braves team & Johnson went 7 giving up only 2ER to the Cubs. It was the Cubs, I'm not sure you can count that as a quality start.

[Jutzu]

Mets bullpen is dead

[High3rEl3m3nt]

mandude, agreed that it's the Cubs, but mechanic and result-wise, Johnson's velocity was healthier than in previous starts and his offspeed stuff was breaking sharp. The Marlins' pitching coach noticed that in Johnson's firs two starts, he had not been incorporating his normal timing mechanism into his wind-up, which he added in the Chicago game. You'll see him tap the ball in his mitt several times before delivering it. Lot's of pitchers rely on these moves...Dempster with his glove shake, etc.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

1. Jose Reyes (S) SS 2. Emilio Bonifacio (S) CF 3. Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B 4. Logan Morrison (L) LF 5. Omar Infante (R) 2B 6. Giancarlo Stanton (R) RF 7. Gaby Sanchez (R) 1B 8. John Buck (R) C 9. Josh Johnson (L) P

1. Kirk Nieuwenhuis (L) CF 2. Ruben Tejada (R) SS 3. Daniel Murphy (L) 2B 4. David Wright (R) 3B 5. Lucas Duda (L) RF 6. Ike Davis (L) 1B 7. Mike Baxter (L) LF 8. Josh Thole (L) C 9. Johan Santana (L) P

[PokerSource]

I'm on the marlins tonight. Looking for Reyes to bust out here. It's almost like Lincecum yesterday, I think jj gets a win here.

I'm with you. Took Miami:JJ -1.5 +150

[konck]

Im a Mets fan so im bias but every time Johan goes out there he is all heart ....I love that in him
He battle with or without his stuff. This yr the wear is showing he tops out at 88 but he pin points and has the amazing change. You get all heart tonight he will try to stop the slide.
Ill take it for a few units GL SN!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Another interesting and telling stat is the BB difference between these two clubs. There is no justifiable excuse for the Mets drawing nearly 20 more BB's than the Marlins with the offensive capability differences between these two lineups. Miami struggles with plate discipline, which feeds into Johan's game.

[Betn247]

Pitching is only half the game........I will take a fresh Fish lineup over a Mets lineup that put up 4 runs in losing a home double header effort.........stays close until the 6th inning when the mets BP comes in a blows it IMO

[zoo youk]

If Johan were to average 100 pitches a game, 3000 pitches would put him at logging in 30 games already. Not sure where you're getting that number.

typo.

[zoo youk]

was looking at fangraphs and got my columns mixed up as that was last year...this year hes thrown 238 pitches, 141 strikes, 97 balls.

[stevenash]

^
Buddy of mine writes for baseball prospectus and fan graphs

[crackerjack]

Mets aren't much better than the cubs.

Here's a story: there was a guy named brad radke...pitched for the twins. One year he got hot and I caught his streak from the start and won buckets of cash. A few years later I was still betting him and losing because he wasn't the same. That's Santana. And greinke. And lincecum. Forget about the past and how much you won with Santana when he was on the twins. Miami wins this one. But I would lay the wood and get +2.5 as it will be close.

[Coming Back!]

Marlins tonight!

[zoo youk]

santana is all over the place but dumbass marlins keep chasing

[stevenash]

santana is all over the place but dumbass marlins keep chasing

That's why Santana is throwing crap, because the book on Miami is to throw crap, because they chase crap.

[cankid]

took the marlins gl Nash

[stevenash]

Just as I expected so far, a pitchers delight.
This is a treat when you get two top tier starters doing their thing.
I like those games so much better than the 9-7 homer fests.

[stevenash]

took the marlins gl Nash

all good dude.
g/l 2u2

[Betn247]

Just as I expected so far, a pitchers delight.
This is a treat when you get two top tier starters doing their thing.
I like those games so much better than the 9-7 homer fests.

Looking like Santana of old

[stevenash]

Murphy was safe.

[zoo youk]

Looking like Santana of old

wouldn't go that far. he is certainly re inventing himself on the fly though.

[zoo youk]

don't worry the Mets will find a way to lose this game. its their MO.