Who are the favorites for the Kentucky Derby?

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  • Brock Landers
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 06-30-08
    • 45359

    #1
    Who are the favorites for the Kentucky Derby?
    Usually by this time of the year there is talk about certain horses running in the Derby. Haven't heard anything this year, so tell me, who are the favorites??
  • Madison
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-16-11
    • 6470

    #2
    Usually a stampede Brock. IMO the Belmont is the money maker. They're all moving up in distance. keep an eye on any who get in trouble and are strong late and then possibly skip the preakness. Made a big score about 6 years ago this way. Forget the horses name but he came from 20th to finish 3 or 4th in the derby. Won going away in the Belmont at like 6-1.
    Comment
    • sweep
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-09-10
      • 16755

      #3
      Originally posted by Brock Landers
      Usually by this time of the year there is talk about certain horses running in the Derby. Haven't heard anything this year, so tell me, who are the favorites??

      here u go, as of 4/17


      Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
      From Wynn Casino

      Union Rags 9/2
      Bodemeister 5/1
      Gemologist 7/1
      Dullahan 10/1
      Creative Cause 12/1
      Alpha 12/1
      Hansen 14/1
      El Padrino 15/1
      I'll have Another 16/1
      Take Charge Indy 18/1
      Daddy Nose Best 20/1
      Mark Valeski 25/1

      Bodemeister opened at 100/1, Gemologist at 150/1, and Dullahan at 200/1 back when they first offered the futures. Do not like Union Rags at 9/2 and do not think he goes off as the favorite.
      Comment
      • unusialsusp5
        SBR MVP
        • 04-18-10
        • 4198

        #4
        most overrated event in horse racing. none of these horses are top notch caliber. they just beat a bunch of inferior steeds to get to the race. someone had to win the prelims. let str and dark horse try to figure out the pace and position and all that nonsense. those two have time to kill. just bet or box a group of lucky numbers or favorite jocks or trainers. 20 horse calvalry charge depends too much on luck than handicapping skill. feel bad for anyone that actually goes and spends 7 hours in that infield to wait for the race that they can't even see. better off playing some of the earlier races on that card that day.
        Comment
        • Brock Landers
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 06-30-08
          • 45359

          #5
          Originally posted by unusialsusp5
          most overrated event in horse racing. none of these horses are top notch caliber. they just beat a bunch of inferior steeds to get to the race. someone had to win the prelims. let str and dark horse try to figure out the pace and position and all that nonsense. those two have time to kill. just bet or box a group of lucky numbers or favorite jocks or trainers. 20 horse calvalry charge depends too much on luck than handicapping skill. feel bad for anyone that actually goes and spends 7 hours in that infield to wait for the race that they can't even see. better off playing some of the earlier races on that card that day.
          i went once, back in 96 for the derby and the wait on site between races is too fukkin long. The races that day are all top caliber though
          Comment
          • yahoonino
            SBR MVP
            • 08-10-07
            • 2651

            #6
            i like this alpha,horse ,,,keep on eye on this one ,,,he my pass them all down the strech,,,,,,,,
            Comment
            • mikemca
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-10-10
              • 10047

              #7
              Originally posted by unusialsusp5
              most overrated event in horse racing. none of these horses are top notch caliber. they just beat a bunch of inferior steeds to get to the race. someone had to win the prelims. let str and dark horse try to figure out the pace and position and all that nonsense. those two have time to kill. just bet or box a group of lucky numbers or favorite jocks or trainers. 20 horse calvalry charge depends too much on luck than handicapping skill. feel bad for anyone that actually goes and spends 7 hours in that infield to wait for the race that they can't even see. better off playing some of the earlier races on that card that day.

              You have to be the most miserable person I have seen post on here.Someone could say the sky is really blue and you would respond I hate blue its just going to rain soon anyway.This is shaping up to be one of the most competitive derbies in years because there are so many that are top notch caliber.Maybe you would like to have a Secreteriat type horse win all the races at even money but IMO its a much better situation with 8-12 contenders.

              Originally posted by yahoonino
              i like this alpha,horse ,,,keep on eye on this one ,,,he my pass them all down the strech,,,,,,,,
              Good Luck with that.
              Comment
              • Madison
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-16-11
                • 6470

                #8
                Originally posted by yahoonino
                i like this alpha,horse ,,,keep on eye on this one ,,,he my pass them all down the strech,,,,,,,,
                On my Breeders radar. Bred to go longer? Kind I was talkin about earlier.
                Comment
                • Madison
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-16-11
                  • 6470

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Madison
                  On my Breeders radar. Bred to go longer? Kind I was talkin about earlier.
                  Mikemca ... opinion on distance for this guy? Alpha.
                  Comment
                  • mikemca
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 03-10-10
                    • 10047

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Madison
                    Mikemca ... opinion on distance for this guy? Alpha.
                    He is probably the best bred in the field for the distance but he isn't coming into the derby as planned after a setback.I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make it into the gate and if he does I think you can safely toss him.
                    Comment
                    • flyingillini
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 41219

                      #11
                      I want Brock to take all the equity out on his parents home and bet it all on the Derby...This is your chance Brock to get back to even, maybe even come out ahead... Do it Brock.. do whatever it takes for you to get money out of your parents for this event. Lie, cheat, steal whatever you have to do , do it.
                      המוסד‎
                      המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                      Comment
                      • Justin_sane
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 03-07-12
                        • 160

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Brock Landers
                        Usually by this time of the year there is talk about certain horses running in the Derby. Haven't heard anything this year, so tell me, who are the favorites??
                        ever heard of google??? it's ur friend
                        Comment
                        • Justin_sane
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 03-07-12
                          • 160

                          #13
                          Originally posted by unusialsusp5
                          most overrated event in horse racing. none of these horses are top notch caliber. they just beat a bunch of inferior steeds to get to the race. someone had to win the prelims. let str and dark horse try to figure out the pace and position and all that nonsense. those two have time to kill. just bet or box a group of lucky numbers or favorite jocks or trainers. 20 horse calvalry charge depends too much on luck than handicapping skill. feel bad for anyone that actually goes and spends 7 hours in that infield to wait for the race that they can't even see. better off playing some of the earlier races on that card that day.
                          They are 3 yr olds...hope your favorite trainer is Todd Pletcher, thank you for your donations in the pools.
                          Comment
                          • Justin_sane
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 03-07-12
                            • 160

                            #14
                            Originally posted by yahoonino
                            i like this alpha,horse ,,,keep on eye on this one ,,,he my pass them all down the strech,,,,,,,,
                            Master of Hounds comes to mind and that didn't work out in either the derby or belmont last year
                            Comment
                            • jjgold
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-20-05
                              • 388179

                              #15
                              Horses for suckers

                              Its all in the exchanges
                              Comment
                              • PhillyFlyers
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-27-11
                                • 8245

                                #16
                                El Padrino for the win.
                                Comment
                                • Dr. J Trotter
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 04-15-12
                                  • 443

                                  #17
                                  Gemologist 7/1>>this horse fought back after being passed in deep stretch. Gotta love that heart. Alpha is a hanger and has no shot in the derby. His best race was left in the wood memorial.



                                  Bodemeister 5/1>>looked really impressive crushing at oaklawn...although no horse has won the derby on the lead since War Emblem did it in 2002




                                  p.s. throw out ALL west coast horses and jockey. This is the big time. West coast jockeys like Rosario can only win in 5 horse fields at hollywood park for $10,000. If I had to choose one west coast horse it would be bodemeister though. Only because Mike Smith is aboard and he has won a derby before.
                                  Comment
                                  • GOIRISH
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-25-10
                                    • 2072

                                    #18
                                    take charge indy is the horse i like. Coming off a win. Jockey has won 3 out of 5 of the last derby's. Secretariat and Seattle slew (triple crown winners) are in its blood line (secretariat on both mother and fathers side so count on some freak retard strength). I dont bet horses regularly though, but these seem like all great things to have on your side.
                                    Comment
                                    • bb_skoots
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-04-11
                                      • 1088

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by GOIRISH
                                      take charge indy is the horse i like. Coming off a win. Jockey has won 3 out of 5 of the last derby's. Secretariat and Seattle slew (triple crown winners) are in its blood line (secretariat on both mother and fathers side so count on some freak retard strength). I dont bet horses regularly though, but these seem like all great things to have on your side.
                                      This horse is by AP Indy , who has zero winners in the derby. So I am looking elsewhere.
                                      Comment
                                      • TonyP
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-20-09
                                        • 8478

                                        #20
                                        Alpha heres your also ran trophy you can pick up just after the race so we can ingrave position and lengths beaten, hansen heres yours to, and Rags you can pick yours up to. TCI we have yours to.
                                        Comment
                                        • Rio DiNero
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-03-08
                                          • 2010

                                          #21
                                          Union Rags looks like the winner to me, a lot of speed in the race especially after the entry of the rabbit Trinniburg. As long as he draws a decent post and makes it to the gate I think he wins easy.
                                          Comment
                                          • TonyP
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-20-09
                                            • 8478

                                            #22
                                            Rags has not shown any improvement since turning 3 and we also seen what he does with a little trouble and horses on the outside of him wich he will have all that in the KD and his pedigree suggest the distance is a little far for him
                                            Comment
                                            • mikemca
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-10-10
                                              • 10047

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by bb_skoots

                                              This horse is by AP Indy , who has zero winners in the derby. So I am looking elsewhere.
                                              There has been an explosion of sires so gone are the days of 4 or 5 sires winning all the big races

                                              2011-Animal Kingdom's sire had no derby winners before he won
                                              2009-Mine That Bird's sire had no derby winners before him
                                              2008-Big Brown's sire had none either
                                              2007-Street Sense = same
                                              2006-Barbaro=same
                                              2005-Giacamo
                                              2004-2003-2002 all the first derby winners from their sires

                                              Only Maria's Mon in 2010 sired his second derby winner




                                              Originally posted by TonyP
                                              Rags has not shown any improvement since turning 3 and we also seen what he does with a little trouble and horses on the outside of him wich he will have all that in the KD and his pedigree suggest the distance is a little far for him
                                              Still on the fence with him.Saying he hasn't improved isn't really fair.He won his first race easily without going all out and his second looked like another furlong and he draws off despite a slow pace.Both on a track that didn't do him any favors.His breeding does say it is just beyond his range but horses outrun their limitations all the time.All that said I think we will see his best race in the derby while quite a few of the others may of already emptied the tank.The question is if its good enough, I don't know but imo he is the most likely to hit the tri/super at the very least.
                                              Comment
                                              • Easy-Rider 66
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 02-14-12
                                                • 36881

                                                #24
                                                Mine That Bird's sire Birdstone did win the Belmont though, so at least the 10 furlongs was not a reach. However going into the derby I think his best speed figure was about an 83 so I did not play him. Went off at 50/1.
                                                Comment
                                                • TonyP
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-20-09
                                                  • 8478

                                                  #25
                                                  no derbie winners does not equate to cant get the distance.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TonyP
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-20-09
                                                    • 8478

                                                    #26
                                                    Big Browns had chemical help
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mikemca
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 03-10-10
                                                      • 10047

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                                      Mine That Bird's sire Birdstone did win the Belmont though, so at least the 10 furlongs was not a reach. However going into the derby I think his best speed figure was about an 83 so I did not play him. Went off at 50/1.
                                                      AP Indy had a preakness winner (Bernardini),a belmont winner (Rags To Riches),a queens plate(Eye Of The Leopard) plus Mineshaft won the woodward/suburban/jockey club/new orleans handicap .He is arguably the best sire aside of Storm Cat in the last 30-40 years.

                                                      AP Indy himself also won the Belmont,Santa Anita Derby,Peter Pan, and BC Classic
                                                      Comment
                                                      • sandyw123
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 07-28-11
                                                        • 307

                                                        #28
                                                        I'll do 1 superfecta at the minimum cost, since they're so hard. Going with Creative Cause, Bodemeister, El Padrino, and a bigger long shot (like Daddy Nose Best or Went the Day Well).
                                                        Comment
                                                        • StackinGreen
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 10-09-10
                                                          • 12140

                                                          #29
                                                          Brock, I'm a real player. Been very good at the Derby last few [10] years, sometimes I bet two or three last year but I bet Animal Kingdom WPS last year. I 'cap the whole card for the day and will play the pick 6 or pick 4 (more likely) if I like the card. I had exacta, trifecta and just missed the super 2010 with Super Saver/Ice Box/Patty O'Prado/4th was like 60-1, can't remember him started with M I think. The previous several years I've been right on. JJ, you need to play horse with Brock, Pal. Just listen to me though
                                                          Comment
                                                          • brucedenton
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 04-05-12
                                                            • 141

                                                            #30
                                                            I like Mark Valeski. No one mentions him.
                                                            Rosie Naprovnik is a very good jockey too.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • brucedenton
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 04-05-12
                                                              • 141

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                                              Brock, I'm a real player. Been very good at the Derby last few [10] years, sometimes I bet two or three last year but I bet Animal Kingdom WPS last year. I 'cap the whole card for the day and will play the pick 6 or pick 4 (more likely) if I like the card. I had exacta, trifecta and just missed the super 2010 with Super Saver/Ice Box/Patty O'Prado/4th was like 60-1, can't remember him started with M I think. The previous several years I've been right on. JJ, you need to play horse with Brock, Pal. Just listen to me though
                                                              I like your modesty StackinGreen!!
                                                              Make sure you list your picks for the Derby!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mynameismud
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-13-12
                                                                • 5461

                                                                #32
                                                                gemologist ftw.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • gilbert91016
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-29-09
                                                                  • 1479

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I'll Have Another has a great shot to win!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                                    • 37688

                                                                    #34
                                                                    JJ brought Brock L back:

                                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Roxxyfish
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 06-26-09
                                                                      • 12066

                                                                      #35
                                                                      easy:Brock Landers 1000/1 3 legged 46year old gelding pound,poud,pound
                                                                      Comment
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