Step 1: admitting your failures and short comings

[griz]

I am a shitty fukkin handicapper. I do not have a system basically just pick teams I like.

I need help. Someone teach me how to fukkin gamble.

Will pay all my sbr points

[jjgold]

Just watch me and my spreadsheet
Look at last few games of game matchups

https://www.sbrodds.com

injuries
forget all ins
2% each bet of bankroll

[Smoke]

grizzly everyone here is bad at pickin winners long term...

I'm over 20K in gambling debt and stopped counting..

we are all trapped man.. god bless

[baskets]

griz, one time in the history of the universe I won a bet

today marked the first time in a long time I won TWO IN A ROW



I was actually stunned when I got 2 in a row. and this is no joke

[Sam Odom]

have to learn to make $$$ even when you only go 50% ATS <---- that is the secret my friend

[RubberKettle]

Just follow Mr. Markets guide to building your bankroll

Genius

[RubberKettle]

Seriously Griz. Go to the library, get library membership. Read books on gambling and mathematics. Take notes. Gain ideas. Repeat.

Stay off SBR when thinking about plays or looking for advice. This only propogates losing.

[BWest]

One word that we all hate, discipline. Every once in awhile I don't wager for two-three days just to make sure I can step away. We are always trying to talk ourselves into a wager when we should be looking for reasons not to wager a certain team. Pick three games a day and try to rate them in order of confidence in your picks. Never wager on more than three events a day no matter what. In the beginning it is best to wait closer to game time to wager. Things change and you need to know what those changes are. Trends/stats can be the most misleading info available. Try to look at a team as a single entity. In other words, a great team may not perform great on the third consec nite in a different city. Just like an indiv., teams have moods, ups, downs and infighting. All this can dramatically effect outcomes. There are volumes of info on this topic, alot can be found on the internet. Start with pointspreads-what is the linesmaker attempting to accomplish with his line, is the line reflective of teams performance or are there other factors at work? I am not an expert but I do fairly well. Downturns are inevitable and can shake your confidence. Track your progress, it is how you spot your strengths and weaknesses. It takes a good while but you are as capable as anyone else in making this work. Best of luck

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Griz, I have been doing nicely by acknowledging the spiritual side of gambling on how supernatural forces on SBR will wreck your roll.

I also think it's imperative realize our limitations--can one capper routinely bet each sport? Not if you have a career, a fam, real bills, etc-- Upon this realization, I have narrowed down two leagues that I feel are the most beatable: MLB and NHL--what's more, one ends where the other pretty much begins. I still bet a few games here and there in FB and BB, but I have come to terms with the fact that I'll likely lose in these leagues--more of my abilities than an overall judgment about the betability of those leagues.

From there, I enjoy identifying the public perception of the game's likely outcome. For example, the public assumes that every time an Ace is on the mound, that team should and will win. However, there are plenty of indicators that an Ace will pitch below their capability and there's a profitable opportunity to bet the other side--must do it consistently to be profitable over the course of the season.

Another trend that I enjoy with betting baseball, are the hundreds of statistical sites that tell you what's really going on in games and what is likely to occur in the next game. I also feel like it's easier--again, at least for me, to recognize public perception and in good spots, bet the other way. For example, the A's, M's, Giants, and Twins, to name a few, are believed to have issues scoring and in certain situations this is true. But these teams could go on record breaking offensive streaks and the public still wouldn't catch up to the fact...leading to an easy opportunity to bet against them. Just a little into how and why I lobby for betting baseball and hockey over the others.

[MendozaLine]

Start paying attention to european soccer.

There is a reason limits are low.

[Inkwell77]

it's really fukkin difficult to win. I have not figured it out, once you put 5,000 hours into learning, be it researching trends, researching line moves, reading books, it should become easier (I'm hoping).
There are edges available, but ****, finding them is a lot of work.

[KingJD31]

swallow your pride and fade yourself

[Inkwell77]

One word that we all hate, discipline. Every once in awhile I don't wager for two-three days just to make sure I can step away. We are always trying to talk ourselves into a wager when we should be looking for reasons not to wager a certain team. Pick three games a day and try to rate them in order of confidence in your picks. Never wager on more than three events a day no matter what. In the beginning it is best to wait closer to game time to wager. Things change and you need to know what those changes are. Trends/stats can be the most misleading info available. Try to look at a team as a single entity. In other words, a great team may not perform great on the third consec nite in a different city. Just like an indiv., teams have moods, ups, downs and infighting. All this can dramatically effect outcomes. There are volumes of info on this topic, alot can be found on the internet. Start with pointspreads-what is the linesmaker attempting to accomplish with his line, is the line reflective of teams performance or are there other factors at work? I am not an expert but I do fairly well. Downturns are inevitable and can shake your confidence. Track your progress, it is how you spot your strengths and weaknesses. It takes a good while but you are as capable as anyone else in making this work. Best of luck

solid post.

[Pete0]

Its all betw_en the lines

Take Heat 1Q and Pacers 1H.

[byronbb]

The discipline required is extreme. You can get lazy when you are winning and lazier when you are losing.

[Sam Odom]

Pride and arrogance are killers too...

Example: Make a post with a play and say you are betting 1.5% of your bankroll and see how many losers/posters will make fun of you for betting sooooooooooo little. They forget (too dumb) to realize 1.5% could be 10.00 or 10,000.00 dollars

[Ralphie Halves]

If you're a shitty handicapper, do what I do. I too know I suck at it, so I follow people who are good at it, use labby lines to stay disciplined, and make money. Nobody who is "barreled in" or gone broke ever bothers to do this. Weird pride thing or something.

Anyone who tells you labouchere does not work has never done it or done it wrong. Great way to go. Why spend all the time and money becoming a "good" handicapper??

[KingJD31]

If you're a shitty handicapper, do what I do. I too know I suck at it, so I follow people who are good at it, use labby lines to stay disciplined, and make money. Nobody who is "barreled in" or gone broke ever bothers to do this. Weird pride thing or something.

Anyone who tells you labouchere does not work has never done it or done it wrong. Great way to go. Why spend all the time and money becoming a "good" handicapper??

do those labby lines really work? I was gonna tail that guys thread but Im a little skeptical

[Ralphie Halves]

do those labby lines really work? I was gonna tail that guys thread but Im a little skeptical

Works great if you do it right. I don't know who you're referring to, but if you keep your lines small and manageable relative to your bank account, you only have to win about 35% of the time to turn a profit. If you follow peeps that can hit 55-60%, you've really put yourself at a huge advantage.

With a $5000 bankroll, use a line like this...

15-15-10-10

And make bets as close to -110 as you can

Looks small, but you can just keep crossing off $50 lines as you go. Then after you pull in a grand or so, graduate to a 15-15-15-15 line.

And like I said in the forex thread, if that's not enough instant gratification for you, I can't help. You'll always want for money, and you'll ignore things that work for things that pay off bigger. Stick to parlay cards.

[milwaukee mike]

I am a shitty fukkin handicapper. I do not have a system basically just pick teams I like.

I need help. Someone teach me how to fukkin gamble.

Will pay all my sbr points

griz there is only one way to win over the course of a million bets. taking bonuses and cross betting.

shoot me a pm if you don't know how to do this and want easy money.

[Sam Odom]

have to learn to make $$$ even when you only go 50% ATS <---- that is the secret my friend

you only have to win about 35% of the time to turn a profit.

although Sammy Odom is not advocating for or against the labouchere or for that matter any 'System'

[TRE1968]

thats what i keep trying to tell people

If you're a shitty handicapper, do what I do. I too know I suck at it, so I follow people who are good at it, use labby lines to stay disciplined, and make money. Nobody who is "barreled in" or gone broke ever bothers to do this. Weird pride thing or something.

Anyone who tells you labouchere does not work has never done it or done it wrong. Great way to go. Why spend all the time and money becoming a "good" handicapper??

[wtt0315]

ok if you are a bad handicapper this is what you do. You cap a game and you pick the side. Now log in to your book and bet the other side.

[dj_destroyer]

Fade all big bets in Player Talk without hesitation (unless it's jj).

[milwaukee mike]

thats what i keep trying to tell people

If you're a shitty handicapper, do what I do. I too know I suck at it, so I follow people who are good at it, use labby lines to stay disciplined, and make money. Nobody who is "barreled in" or gone broke ever bothers to do this. Weird pride thing or something.

Anyone who tells you labouchere does not work has never done it or done it wrong. Great way to go. Why spend all the time and money becoming a "good" handicapper??

i don't think it's a pride thing, i think it's the fact that anyone that has gambled for 20 years+ has known at least a couple guys who have claimed martingale/labouchere/any chase system was foolproof and those same guys ended up busted. maybe a few weeks later, maybe a few years but it happens.

betting a chase system increases the % of time you hit a winning "series", but it also kicks you in the butt on a bad streak. yes labouchere can give you a 95% chance of winning a cancellation series, but it's that 5% that leaves you penniless.

[mynameismud]

its pretty gross. sometimes throwing darts works just as well as working hard looking at trends, home/away records, weather conditions, injury report, teams win/loss record, etc. sports are so fukking unpredictable.

[Ralphie Halves]

i don't think it's a pride thing, i think it's the fact that anyone that has gambled for 20 years+ has known at least a couple guys who have claimed martingale/labouchere/any chase system was foolproof and those same guys ended up busted. maybe a few weeks later, maybe a few years but it happens.

betting a chase system increases the % of time you hit a winning "series", but it also kicks you in the butt on a bad streak. yes labouchere can give you a 95% chance of winning a cancellation series, but it's that 5% that leaves you penniless.

And that's why I keep it at the ratio stated in post #19. It's served me well for over two years now. I'll guarantee the people that lost it had their lines too high.

Again, no hard examples out there saying how it doesn't work. Just the same "if you do it long enough you'll run out of money". I've never come close.

I have always thought your bonus whoring method was intriguing. Is it becoming harder to do these days, or about the same? It does seem effective if you know what to do.

[RubberKettle]

The thing about martingale or labby is that not many have the discipline to stick to it.

Many people will hit a few losers and go off the deep end.

They're for the ultra disciplined only. Not a recreational gambler, which most are on this site.
Props to Ralph for making it work though

[cruzing vato]

start with a banroll yur comfy with.. bet a comfy amount. Then when you grow it, bet a little more, until your like whoa thats too much money...

After that go work on your lowrider.

[dice]

Griz, hang in there. My first piece of advice for you is that you should be a recreational gambler, don't do this for a living... you appear not to have the stomach for it. Know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em. Many will hit between 40% to 60% but most will lose their bankroll due to bad money management. Syndicates may hit as high 70% but they'll have up and down months. Have fun with this, don't depend on this for a living (if this is the case). You'll go crazy trying to figure out the holy grail to sports gambling!

[Chi_archie]

my Penis is too big

[paranoyd androyd]

grizzly everyone here is bad at pickin winners long term...

I'm over 20K in gambling debt and stopped counting..

we are all trapped man.. god bless

there's no such thing as a gambling addiction and no one's trapped.

[DOMINATER]

Griz if you want to win follow me, I will start posting I will bet the games and how much I am betting thats the key. If your interested just let me know I will wait for your remarks

[JohnGalt2341]

If you're a shitty handicapper, do what I do. I too know I suck at it, so I follow people who are good at it, use labby lines to stay disciplined, and make money. Nobody who is "barreled in" or gone broke ever bothers to do this. Weird pride thing or something.

Anyone who tells you labouchere does not work has never done it or done it wrong. Great way to go. Why spend all the time and money becoming a "good" handicapper??

Do you have a link?

[GunShard]

Bet on what you're good at. Also, understand bankroll management (never go all in and dump all of your money on a game).

I'm good at betting on the NFL and UFC. I suck at betting on the NBA, MLB and NHL.

For me, I stick with what I'm good at and avoid what I'm bad at. I consider myself a strategic gambler.

Anyone that bets on every sport is an imbecile and an impulsive gambler.