Why are there no prop touts?

[Cheme82]

Or at least ones that cater to the general betting public. Is it because the average Joe would rather hammer the LAL -8 rather than betting on Kobe to score less than 26 points?

I know these fukers don't give a damn about customers winning with their picks and their main goal is to sell picks, so that's probably why they would rather sell sides and maybe totals. But I think it's much easier to win playing props and even some of those losers would be able to scratch off some winnings by doing just that.

Maybe nobody would buy the props huh?

[darkhat]

pay me I will beat your tout and guarantee a 25 percent or better win percentage.

[alxsamsonov]

pay me I will beat your tout and guarantee a 25 percent or better win percentage.

Where do I sign up? do you take paypal???

[Cheme82]

pay me I will beat your tout and guarantee a 25 percent or better win percentage.

I don't have a tout, but thanks for the offer. Although a 25% win % can be achieved by pretty much anyone in this forum.

[lakerboy]

durito

[Cheme82]

Care to explain LB?

[RudyRuetigger]

what is a prop?

[Gee]

You can't tout props, because of the way the lines move.

Often by the time I tell guys what I'm on in chat, it will have moved 30c or more. It doesn't take much money to move a prop line and a point or half a point is so valuable.

Whilst we're on the topic, has anyone roughly been able to figure out the value of half a point, half a rebound or half an assist?

I guestimate the value through comparison between books (I haven't yet found one that has assessed the price of half a point and allows you to buy them on props and don't think they exist), but don't really know. Is this the only way to do it? I don't think its a very efficient way, because of the way the prop market works.

I play about a quarter as many sides/totals as I do props on both NBA and NFL. They are definitely more profitable than trying to beat sides and totals for me.

[flyingillini]

I'm actually wondering the same thing. I would love to purchase the prop packages if offered. I hope SBR offers a tout prop service soon.

[dj_destroyer]

Knowing the values of half points, half rebounds, etc. would be great for me too with my exploitation of stale provincial gaming corp odds.

[Cheme82]

what is a prop?

Short for proposition bet, any bet that doesn't involve a spread, money line or total. In NBA the most common props are about over/under on specific players stats like points, rebounds, and assists.

[Cheme82]

You can't tout props, because of the way the lines move.

Often by the time I tell guys what I'm on in chat, it will have moved 30c or more. It doesn't take much money to move a prop line and a point or half a point is so valuable.

Whilst we're on the topic, has anyone roughly been able to figure out the value of half a point, half a rebound or half an assist?

I guestimate the value through comparison between books (I haven't yet found one that has assessed the price of half a point and allows you to buy them on props and don't think they exist), but don't really know. Is this the only way to do it? I don't think its a very efficient way, because of the way the prop market works.

I play about a quarter as many sides/totals as I do props on both NBA and NFL. They are definitely more profitable than trying to beat sides and totals for me.

I hadn't thought about the lack of liquidity for props and the drastic line changes because of it.

The best way to price the half points would be to use a poisson distribution calculator. There are no set values for half a point/assist/rebound etc. because they vary depending on the line and the average the player carries. Obviously half an assist is usually more valuable than half a point because most players score more points than assists. If books were to sell you halves they will have to price them individually.

[eidolon]

Pass the Kool-Aid!

[Cheme82]

Knowing the values of half points, half rebounds, etc. would be great for me too with my exploitation of stale provincial gaming corp odds.

I forgot to clarify that when I meant half points and poisson I wasn't really talking about points scored. You can't use Poisson for points scored in basketball because one of the requirements to use poisson is that the events must happen one at a time, so assists, rebounds, and steals are the ones that I was referring to.

[RudyRuetigger]

Short for proposition bet, any bet that doesn't involve a spread, money line or total. In NBA the most common props are about over/under on specific players stats like points, rebounds, and assists.

level?

[Cheme82]

level?

Not sure I understand what you meant here bro, sorry.

[MickeyD]

what is tout?

[Cheme82]

A person that sells their picks and makes you believe you will win if you buy their stuff. They are usually deceiving and manipulate their records to make it look like they are winners.

They will advertise things like these:

"Have won 3 in a row!" But they don't tell you they were 2-8 before that.
"Hit 63% in MLB last year" But they don't tell you they bet favorites that averaged -200

Etc.