Canadian Politics Middle Opportunity

[mathdotcom]

Conservatives to win majority?
Yes +140
No -150

Conservatives to win more than 38% of popular vote?
Yes/No -105


Someone can check the stats, but I don't think it's ever happened that someone got > 38% and *didn't* get a majority...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Uhh. A majority may implicitly mean > 50%... I would check for clarification on this term. Unless somehow a plurality = majority in Canadian politics...

[Sinister Cat]

majority means majority of seats

[Sinister Cat]

I should add that there are 3+ significant parties with a candidate in most ridings, so a seat in a given riding can easily be picked up with less than 50% of popular vote. No way the conservatives get > 50% of the popular vote, and they could get a majority, though it would be surprising (to me anyway).

[MonkeyF0cker]

It's a dicey term honestly, Sinister, since the party who wins the plurality of votes is considered the majority party in parliamentary systems. However, I agree that a majority implies greater than half of the seats. Thus, there is no middle here. Only the possibility of a correlated parlay. However, chances are slim that these are both from the same book which allows parlaying props.

[Sinister Cat]

You're right that isn't strictly a middle.

Stats are available on nodice.ca. There has indeed never been an election where a party has had < 38% and won a majority. Closest was 1997 with 38.5%.

However, in 1997 there were two conservative parties (Alliance and PC got 18-19% each). It seems highly unlikely that the current configuration of parties, notwithstanding the increased strength of NDP and Green, could split the vote the way it was in '97.


I think the bet here is conservatives don't win a majority. Current projections are that they are nowhere close. Election is mid-October. The 140/-150 odds might be a little stale since at the beginning of September the Conservatives were doing better in the polls.

[Sinister Cat]

nothing

[MonkeyF0cker]

If there is more than a 60% chance that they don't acquire the majority of seats then there is some value there. However, I wouldn't have the proper data at the moment to make that determination...

[BlackJack]

who has Conservatives to win majority?

[fiveteamer]

who has Conservatives to win majority?

Sun Media.

[icemantbi]

Your forgetting about the Green party this time around. They could get 10+ % of the popular vote in this election. That could mean that the Tories get a majority with less than 38% of the popular vote.

I'd have to go over the old election results when we had the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in the mix, and see what the Liberal popular vote % was.

I saw this posted at Pinny, and I'm going to be a degenerate and bet this, but the limits are like $50, so it will just be for entertainment. IMHO though, no way do the Tories get a majority.

[mathdotcom]

I like the No Majority bet as well but will probably wait and see. Debate etc might change a lot.

[robzilla]

Well take a look at all the parties in Canada.

Conservatives
NDP
Liberal
Green Party
Ind.
Bloc Quebois
and others.

Harper is a fool, but the western provinces will vote him in. Everywhere east of Manitoba is Liberal country.

The torries to take 38% is going to be close.

[mathdotcom]

yeah, Robzilla, and Dion is a phuckin beacon of hope. Nice one.

The West of this country is the only side that knows wtf it's doing. Ontario is the Canadian version of Detroit, and Quebec thinks it's God's gift to Canada. Don't even get me started on the maratimes. Alberta and B.C. have been balancing their budgets for decades, long before oil was over $50/barrel.

[robzilla]

yeah, Robzilla, and Dion is a phuckin beacon of hope. Nice one.

The West of this country is the only side that knows wtf it's doing. Ontario is the Canadian version of Detroit, and Quebec thinks it's God's gift to Canada. Don't even get me started on the maratimes. Alberta and B.C. have been balancing their budgets for decades, long before oil was over $50/barrel.

WTF are you talking about?!? If Canada was a car, Ontario would be the engine. Ontario and Quebec distribute the wealth to the garbage provinces. If u dont live in Ontairo, u aint shit.

[robzilla]

yeah, Robzilla, and Dion is a phuckin beacon of hope. Nice one.

The West of this country is the only side that knows wtf it's doing. Ontario is the Canadian version of Detroit, and Quebec thinks it's God's gift to Canada. Don't even get me started on the maratimes. Alberta and B.C. have been balancing their budgets for decades, long before oil was over $50/barrel.

Harper is a joke. He is a Bush puppet. Bush says dance and he dances. The guy is so stupid he is changing the young offenders act so that 12 year olds get adult penalties. thought we lived in canada, not texas.

[mathdotcom]

1] It's 14 year olds, not 12 years.
2] 14 year olds won't get adult penalties. They will just be *tried* as adults. The sentences are entirely different.

You just make an assertion about him being a Bush puppet. Give me some examples. The Liberals pretend like they're tough shit by creating issues with the U.S., even when there don't need to be. There's a difference between being independent and being antagonistic like Chretien.

By the way, last time I checked it was the U.S. who had our backs if we had any military issues. They police our coasts for us. They are by far the main buyer of our exports. I can go on and on.

It all comes down to Canadians' anti-Americanism that has no basis. I think it's just jealousy. We have the same history essentially back into the 18th century, but the US became hugely successful, while we became and still are nothing.

[robzilla]

1] It's 14 year olds, not 12 years.
2] 14 year olds won't get adult penalties. They will just be *tried* as adults. The sentences are entirely different.

You just make an assertion about him being a Bush puppet. Give me some examples. The Liberals pretend like they're tough shit by creating issues with the U.S., even when there don't need to be. There's a difference between being independent and being antagonistic like Chretien.

By the way, last time I checked it was the U.S. who had our backs if we had any military issues. They police our coasts for us. They are by far the main buyer of our exports. I can go on and on.

It all comes down to Canadians' anti-Americanism that has no basis. I think it's just jealousy. We have the same history essentially back into the 18th century, but the US became hugely successful, while we became and still are nothing.

The war of 1812 was the single greatest moment that made Canada a nation. why dont u get the **** out of Canada if u love america so much?

Canadians dont need americans policing our coasts. They do what they do for selfish reasons. we dont need protection from them. Conservative Canadians make me sick. We need to be more like our european blood and not like our nascar loving hillbilly backwards neighbors to the south.

[mathdotcom]

The war of 1812 was the single greatest moment that made Canada a nation. why dont u get the **** out of Canada if u love america so much?

Canadians dont need americans policing our coasts. They do what they do for selfish reasons. we dont need protection from them. Conservative Canadians make me sick. We need to be more like our european blood and not like our nascar loving hillbilly backwards neighbors to the south.

1] The War of 1812 was won by the British, not the Canadians. Canada became a nation in 1867. You don't have a clue.

2] You insult the 'nascar loving hillbilly backward neighbours to the south', when you just made a thread about you being in a rush to get your Taco Bell before the NFL games start.

Typical liberal hypocrite

[robzilla]

1] The War of 1812 was won by the British, not the Canadians. Canada became a nation in 1867. You don't have a clue.

2] You insult the 'nascar loving hillbilly backward neighbours to the south', when you just made a thread about you being in a rush to get your Taco Bell before the NFL games start.

Typical liberal hypocrite

Um, Tacos are mexican...Dumbass!

[robzilla]

BTW, what do u think canadians were before canada exisited.

[mathdotcom]

Um, Tacos are mexican...Dumbass!

LOL is anybody reading this?

[mathdotcom]

The British sent troops... from Britain... they won the war... they got back on a boat and went back to Britain. So, Britain won the war.

Sad when you need to look back almost 200 years for something to be proud of, and even then it's not even a Canadian accomplishment.

[robzilla]

The War of 1812 was seen by British loyalists in British North America (which formed the Dominion of Canada in 1867), as a victory, as they had successfully defended their borders from an American takeover. The outcome gave Empire-oriented Canadians confidence and, together with the postwar "militia myth" that the civilian militia had been primarily responsible rather than the British regulars, was used to stimulate a new sense of Canadian nationalism.[

[mathdotcom]

Do you not even know what you're reading?

The War of 1812 was seen by British loyalists in British North America (which formed the Dominion of Canada in 1867), as a victory, as they had successfully defended their borders from an American takeover. The outcome gave Empire-oriented Canadians confidence and, together with the postwar "militia myth" that the civilian militia had been primarily responsible rather than the British regulars, was used to stimulate a new sense of Canadian nationalism.[

In other words, it was not Canadians (ie. the militia) that were responsible for winning the war, but soldiers that came over from Britain.

[fiveteamer]

Harper is a joke. He is a Bush puppet. Bush says dance and he dances. The guy is so stupid he is changing the young offenders act so that 12 year olds get adult penalties. thought we lived in canada, not texas.

http://www.thestar.com/GTA/Crime/article/508201

Why protect these "youths"?

[Sinister Cat]

Your forgetting about the Green party this time around. They could get 10+ % of the popular vote in this election. That could mean that the Tories get a majority with less than 38% of the popular vote.

I'd have to go over the old election results when we had the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in the mix, and see what the Liberal popular vote % was.

I saw this posted at Pinny, and I'm going to be a degenerate and bet this, but the limits are like $50, so it will just be for entertainment. IMHO though, no way do the Tories get a majority.

As I said in my earlier post in this thread, 38.5% in 1997, won a majority and that was the lowest anyone had with a majority (nodice.ca). Alliance & PCs had ~18-19% each.

Can the vote be split anywhere near that this time around? I think no way the green and NDP get anywhere near the sort of split as you get back in 1997. I think this time people who would have otherwise supported Green or NDP will be voting strategically with the Liberals. This wasn't really a possibility back in '97 where the PC and Alliance were divided geographically-- if an Ontario riding had both PC and Alliance, they were voting PC, while in AB, they'd vote Alliance.