Estimate good pickers who lose money by over betting
Contemplating Kelly some more. 
Given that if you consistently make bets in excess of 2X the Kelly value for the actual win probability for your bets then you have created a situation where you have a losing expectation...
What would be your estimate of the percentage of sports bettors who can pick more winners than losers, but are still losing money because they are routinely overbetting their bankroll in relation to the advantage they have?
Just curious what some of you long time sports bettors estimate that percentage might be.
Given that if you consistently make bets in excess of 2X the Kelly value for the actual win probability for your bets then you have created a situation where you have a losing expectation...
What would be your estimate of the percentage of sports bettors who can pick more winners than losers, but are still losing money because they are routinely overbetting their bankroll in relation to the advantage they have?
Just curious what some of you long time sports bettors estimate that percentage might be.