Duke -1000 = trappy?

PickWinnerAllDay · 03-15-12, 03:43 AM

hell, I love -200-400 chalk favorites but don't get the reason in throwing it in to earn a few extra nickels.

DiggityDaggityDo · 03-15-12, 03:51 AM

Looks like a solid winner.

Duke wins by 10 points.

Too chalky for me though.

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 04:21 AM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

hell, I love -200-400 chalk favorites but don't get the reason in throwing it in to earn a few extra nickels.

But this is Duke as a #2 seed against a #15 seed, how often will they lose in this situation? Maybe never based on history, that's why I'm saying this line looks low. Usually Duke in this situation would be a lock imho and that's why I'd consider the ML here.

BernardMadoff · 03-15-12, 04:24 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

But this is Duke as a #2 seed against a #15 seed, how often will they lose in this situation? Maybe never based on history, that's why I'm saying this line looks low. Usually Duke in this situation would be a lock imho and that's why I'd consider the ML here.

Things happen, no need to do -1000 unless youre parlaying multiple teams.

nyplayer33 · 03-15-12, 04:44 AM

If u like em do a parlay...I think many feel Duke is way overrated. I just don't think it's worth it to bet 1000 to win 100 profit

jjgold · 03-15-12, 05:30 AM

Not worth it
neutral cts anything can happen

Br0nxer · 03-15-12, 07:21 AM

last time 2 beat 15 was hampton beating jamaal tinsleys iowa st team

it happens

thebestthereis · 03-15-12, 07:26 AM

Duke isn't losing here

Jayvegas420 · 03-15-12, 08:10 AM

I suppose if I had 10 grand lying around this would be worth my while but, at any price Duke doesnt go out in the 1st round.

slacker00 · 03-15-12, 08:28 AM

Go for it. #2 seeds versus #15 seeds are 104-4 or 96.3%. Unless you think Duke is weak or Lehigh is strong, do it.

Here's where I'm getting these stats: http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

ehp6737 · 03-15-12, 08:42 AM

I live 10 min from Lehigh, so I know the team very well. I dont think they will win, but I think they have the best chance of any #15 vs #2 matchup in the last few years (not that thats saying a lot

). They have the 6th highest scorer in the country and they are a scrappy up tempo team. People are obviously going to dismiss them because they're from the Patriot league, but the team Lehigh just beat in the conference final, Bucknell, went into Arizona last night and beat them on their home floor. Also, Lehigh should have beat St Johns earlier in the season on the road, they just gave that game away at the end after being up the whole game. The same St John's team that almost beat Duke at Cameron.

And IMO Duke is very vulnerable in the tourney this year. Even with probably the easiest bracket I dont think they'll make a deep run. With all that said, Duke will more than likely win, but I never like laying heavy chalk and will stay away here and just root for Cinderella. Besides, only -1000 for Duke playing basically a home game against little ole Lehigh does seem a little fishy.

Underdog5229 · 03-15-12, 09:38 AM

Don't see Duke losing, but -1000 chalk in the big dance, anything can happen.

will2survive · 03-15-12, 09:41 AM

not a trap. Duke is just better

Monte · 03-15-12, 09:50 AM

Come on dude you know these are sucker bets, be smarter than that.
Look at Pinny and you will see true odds sit around -800.
If you bet -1000 here you will be the idiot in the long run, there is nothing more to say really.

BookiesBernanke · 03-15-12, 09:53 AM

Fading Duke the 1st two rounds, especially Halftime spreads. This team has had to come back from large deficits so many times, shows lack of maturity in the early parts of games.

I could easily see a mid-major getting hot and busting a big lead and holding on to win by 2-3.

Bostongambler · 03-15-12, 09:55 AM

Looked at this myself/ Duke should take it.

upscope · 03-15-12, 10:32 AM

I have Duke ML in parlay, just don't see them losing.

blackbeSSt · 03-15-12, 10:36 AM

not sure how a -1000 ml could remotely be considered a trap

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by blackbeSSt

not sure how a -1000 ml could remotely be considered a trap

Something similar happened the other day in the NBA. Houston @ OKC, OKC was -11 but only -900 ML, as soon as I saw that I knew it was trappy and OKC had a relatively poor shot to win (for being such a heavy favorite). Houston won. I didn't post it or anything but I knew that -900 was trappy as well. These numbers are relative, big or small.

Monte · 03-15-12, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

Something similar happened the other day in the NBA. Houston @ OKC, OKC was -11 but only -900 ML, as soon as I saw that I knew it was trappy and OKC had a relatively poor shot to win (for being such a heavy favorite). Houston won. I didn't post it or anything but I knew that -900 was trappy as well. These numbers are relative, big or small.

So you think -900 is low for -11 spreads?
Do yourself a favor and hide your money from yourself.

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by Monte

So you think -900 is low for -11 spreads?
Do yourself a favor and hide your money from yourself.

It is low for the NBA. Look at Dallas today, -13.5/-1800 ML. Compare that to -11/-900 and -900 looks awfully low, doesn't it? What your problem?

Monte · 03-15-12, 11:15 AM

I have no problem but you do, you gambled your brain cells away already..
gotta love ppl without any clue about simple maths and statistics who would bet lousy MLs, and are 100% resistent to voices of reason.

Grits n' Gravy · 03-15-12, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

It is low for the NBA. Look at Dallas today, -13.5/-1800 ML. Compare that to -11/-900 and -900 looks awfully low, doesn't it? What your problem?

One team was playing a decent Rockets team and the other was playing a god awful Wizards team. I cashed both dogs.

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy

One team was playing a decent Rockets team and the other was playing a god awful Wizards team. I cashed both dogs.

A decent Rockets team without their two leading scorers. Still, the line was low relatively speaking.

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Monte

I have no problem but you do, you gambled your brain cells away already..
gotta love ppl without any clue about simple maths and statistics who would bet lousy MLs, and are 100% resistent to voices of reason.

Compare -13.5/-1800 ML and -11/-900 ML and explain, using statistics and reason, how -900 isn't comparably low. I'd give you all the points I have for that but I'm not an SBR pro.

Grits n' Gravy · 03-15-12, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

Compare -13.5/-1800 ML and -11/-900 ML and explain, using statistics and reason, how -900 isn't comparably low. I'd give you all the points I have for that but I'm not an SBR pro.

It was the freaking Wizards. There is no statistical formula necessary.

Monte · 03-15-12, 11:59 AM

Iam really just trying to help you...take 1 look at Pinny's lines, and you should know what the deal is here.
If they are offering -900, and you would happily bet -1000, you have no chance in the long run.
Betting big MLs is one of the worst newbie addictions in gambling, you need all the help you can get not falling for it /peace

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy

It was the freaking Wizards. There is no statistical formula necessary.

I

I posted the line for today's game v. the Bobcats.

cleaveland · 03-15-12, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Monte

Iam really just trying to help you...take 1 look at Pinny's lines, and you should know what the deal is here.
If they are offering -900, and you would happily bet -1000, you have no chance in the long run.
Betting big MLs is one of the worst newbie addictions in gambling, you need all the help you can get not falling for it /peace

All you did was attack me and make claims that you didn't even try to defend. You bring up statistics but your statistics aren't even statistics, they're just opinions (comparing lines at different books are just comparing different opinions although it's usually an aggregate opinion, a line is still only an opinion). You made no rational argument at all. I can't stand people like you, I'm putting you on ignore.

Monte · 03-15-12, 12:14 PM

Breaks my heart, on iggy by someone who thinks Pinny's lines are no rational argument.
Do whatever you want then, waste of time and better man up for when your first big loss comes...lols

cbiscuit · 03-15-12, 12:54 PM

For what purpose would you ever want to engage a -1000 play? Go out and find a silly stock share instead.
Beyond all of this, I would have given Lehigh legit chance IF this game WAS NOT so close to home for Duke. All the CamCrazs will be in attendance and that is why Duke wins. They may not cover that spread - by comparison Lehigh stayed within 9 to IaSt. and MichSt away earlier . This is not a quality Duke edition even with Doc Rivers Jr. Duke got the easiest first-2 game draw of anyone in the tourney! They next take on a damaged ND team or a underachieving Xavier. Baylor will bounce them in Rd3.

slacker00 · 03-16-12, 03:06 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

Something similar happened the other day in the NBA. Houston @ OKC, OKC was -11 but only -900 ML, as soon as I saw that I knew it was trappy and OKC had a relatively poor shot to win (for being such a heavy favorite). Houston won. I didn't post it or anything but I knew that -900 was trappy as well. These numbers are relative, big or small.

Forget the NBA, it's rigged as hell. Even the refs are on the take.

cleaveland · 03-16-12, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by cbiscuit

For what purpose would you ever want to engage a -1000 play? Go out and find a silly stock share instead.
Beyond all of this, I would have given Lehigh legit chance IF this game WAS NOT so close to home for Duke. All the CamCrazs will be in attendance and that is why Duke wins. They may not cover that spread - by comparison Lehigh stayed within 9 to IaSt. and MichSt away earlier . This is not a quality Duke edition even with Doc Rivers Jr. Duke got the easiest first-2 game draw of anyone in the tourney! They next take on a damaged ND team or a underachieving Xavier. Baylor will bounce them in Rd3.

Here's why...

One 15 seed just won, there's no way in this world two 15 seeds are winning on the same day so I'm taking a Duke/Kansas ML parlay and the payouts quite good considering the circumstances.

PickWinnerAllDay · 03-16-12, 06:36 PM

I hate Duke and it would be rewarding to see them lose.

I wonder if they are bad enough to lose a virtual home game vs a god awful Lehigh team.