Home Advantage in NHL and MLB?

[TPowell]

Anybody want to share how much it is worth in these sports? Just getting into them so clueless about how to factor homefield advantage into the line. Would it be around 50 points? 30?

[mebaran]

For MLB, home teams have won around 53.9% in the past.

NHL is less.

[jjgold]

I still feel more comfortable taking a hockey home team vs mlb home team even though so many bad at home

[mrmarket]

I wonder if this information is factored this into these lines in such small markets like these

[Living The Dream]

For baseball its always easier to play at home. Knowing you have the last at bat is a big difference in a close game.

[odog11]

Have to take other factors into account, some teams better at home than others, first game back after road trip often a let down, which team might be tired from lots of travel/games over past week, these things will effect how much of an "edge" the home ice will have, but it is a factor.

[TPowell]

If the yankees were -150 at home against boston, what would they be at boston? Collegr hoops is 4 point advantage

[hydrosmak]

Have to take other factors into account, some teams better at home than others, first game back after road trip often a let down, which team might be tired from lots of travel/games over past week, these things will effect how much of an "edge" the home ice will have, but it is a factor.

Certainly. Winnipeg home ice advantage is insane right now.

[mebaran]

Depends on the context. With the exact same starters and pitchers, take +100/-100 and just add and subtract ~4% advantage to see the difference. The closer it is to EV, the less the difference.

Also, you have to remember that the home field advantage is actually built into the game unlike a lot of other sports (home team gets to bat last). If you then add in the psychological advantage of playing in front of a home crowd, it jumps up.

[nrok2118]

Yeah home ice in hockey yields last changes, and better bench positioning for 2 periods

[odog11]

Depends on the context. With the exact same starters and pitchers, take +100/-100 and just add and subtract ~4% advantage to see the difference. The closer it is to EV, the less the difference.

Also, you have to remember that the home field advantage is actually built into the game unlike a lot of other sports (home team gets to bat last). If you then add in the psychological advantage of playing in front of a home crowd, it jumps up.

In hockey home team has the advantage of getting to substitute last before a face off, probably more significant that batting last IMO.

[greenhippo]

Depends on the team really. Last year the Mets had a better record on the road than at home. Boston I think had the same record at home vs on the road. Rangers at home against divisional opponents beat the hell out of the other teams. Yanks were swept twice at home by Boston. I don't have it right in front of me but the Phillies only lost 1 series against both the Mets and Marlins last year, I think they were both on the road. Dominate teams dominate at home.

[greenhippo]

i don't know hockey.

[a4u2fear]

Looking at my spreadsheet:

Out of 1230 total NHL games last year, the home team was a favorite in 908 of them, and the home favorite won 502 of those 908 games.

The away team won 590 of those 1230 games. GL.

[TPowell]

Depends on the context. With the exact same starters and pitchers, take +100/-100 and just add and subtract ~4% advantage to see the difference. The closer it is to EV, the less the difference.

Also, you have to remember that the home field advantage is actually built into the game unlike a lot of other sports (home team gets to bat last). If you then add in the psychological advantage of playing in front of a home crowd, it jumps up.

4% to the winning percentage? Thats not a big home field advantage. Is there not a simple system like in baskets? Add 4 for homecourt, subtract 4 for playing on road, etc?

[DemoralizdDreamr]

NHL home wins

585-337-39-84

55.98%

[mebaran]

Runs don't happen as often as points in basketball, so I can't really give you a run differential. But if you have a money line of +100 (.50 implied probability), and you add the 4% HFA in, you get -117.

If the odds at a neutral field were, say, -200, when you add in HFA you would get -241. (The farther away from EV the odds get, the more difference a 4% HFA makes).

[TPowell]

Runs don't happen as often as points
in basketball, so I can't really give you a run differential. But if you have a money line of +100 (.50 implied probability), and you add the 4% HFA in, you get -117.

If the odds at a neutral field were, say, -200, when you add in HFA you would get -241. (The farther away from EV the odds get, the more difference a 4% HFA makes).

Yeah thats what i was looking for, thanks

[PickWinnerAllDay]

Certain home fields are much better than others.

[TPowell]

Certain home fields are muc
h better than others.

Thats hard to believe. Im guessing maybe houston and boston would be two worth a lot? Maybe cubs with wind?

[PickWinnerAllDay]

Thats hard to believe. Im guessing maybe houston and boston would be two worth a lot? Maybe cubs with wind?

Was thinking more like Coors Field has been very good to the Rockies historically. Rangers have really turned theirs into a killer as well. A smart GM will build around the strengths of their own ballpark. Cubs could have a great home field advantage but their last GM was a fat ass clown.