never betting LOS ALAMITOS again

wtt0315 · 03-10-12, 11:20 PM

qh's are actually easier then tb most of the time. I have done really well at that track. The pick 4's are pretty good.

13th Inning · 03-11-12, 12:27 AM

Any tips for betting the quarterhorses? I like to bet thoroughbreds, but I've never gotten into quarterhorses - I have no idea what to look for.

ThaWoj · 03-11-12, 12:34 AM

mike believe it or not los al is my favorite track, i love the quarters. ed burgart is one of the best announcers in the country. paul jones is a beast of a trainer, i play his mounts religiously out there

ThaWoj · 03-11-12, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by 13th Inning

Any tips for betting the quarterhorses? I like to bet thoroughbreds, but I've never gotten into quarterhorses - I have no idea what to look for.

look at the finish times. theres two, one is what the horse did and the other is what the winner of the race did. to me this is key. workouts are a huge factor as well. for 220yrd workouts anything around 12:20 or less is good. i also think breeding makes a big difference, obviously anything by First Down Dash or Chicks Beduino is great blood. For first timers i love playing horses bread by A Regal Choice. obviously class is a factor just like in any other t-bred or harness race.

another overlooked factor is the comments in the program and race replays. qh's bump and bounce around at the break all the time so its important to see in a previous race if the start of the race cost/helped a horse depending if he got out clean or got pinballed. this is a MUCH MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR than in t-bred and harness

theres so much more but this is a small bit off the top of my head

milwaukee mike · 03-11-12, 08:01 AM

good info guys

i was picking the wrong long shots, a 20-1 and then 7-1 came in

wish there were bigger fields, sucks when you can't even pick a winner with 5 horses in the race

andywend · 03-11-12, 08:16 AM

Betting the TB's at Los Alamitos is fine but I would avoid betting on the quarter horses as the integrity of the bet systems is questionable.

Heres the problem:
You are allowed to wager on the race right up until the horses break from the gate. Once the horses break, some sort of button is pushed which sends a signal which locks up the betting systems at all the simulcast outlets.

I do NOT believe all the machines at every single simulcasting outlet locks up at exactly the same time and the tote board is further proof.

TVG shows all the Los Alamitos races and the odds board is shown right up until the horses break from the gate and after the horses cross the finish line, the final odds are shown.

There are huge differences in that final adjustment of the odds due to the majority of betting at Los Alamitos occurring at simulcast outlets. It is within this final odds adjustment where the past posting is indeed occurring and its easy to prove.

Just tape the races on TVG and examine the adjustment in the odds on any horse that outbreaks its field by any sort of considerable margin.

It doesn't matter if the horse is a favorite or a longer priced horse:
Any horse that "wins the break" gets HAMMERED during that final odds adjustment each and every time without fail. Its important to note that you should only examine the odds on the fast breaker and NOT on the winner (though very often they are one and the same).

Since the majority of the QH races are between 220 and 440 yards (between 10-20 seconds in total length), the break is far more crucial in Quarter Horse racing than in Thoroughbred racing.

Once again, if you have some sort of DVR (Digital Video Recording) system, just tape the races on TVG and examine all races where an individual horse clearly outbreaks the field. You'll see the odds drop down massively on that last adjustment of the odds on each and every occassion.

milwaukee mike · 03-11-12, 08:28 AM

so andy how can we take advantage of that?

have you ever been able to find a website that leaves it open? i was on hollywood last night and the odds were off well before they started.

andywend · 03-11-12, 08:42 AM

Mike,

There is no way to take advantage of it and all it can do is hurt you in the form of a lower winning mutuel on those rare occassions where we select the winning horse.

Since Los Alamitos is a smaller track not doing terribly well financially, its even possible the person doing this is connected to the track itself.

Once again, since the break is so crucial in quarter horse racing due to the distances being so short in length, being able to wager even one second after the horses break can give you an incredibly overwhelming advantage.

Do you have TVG? If so, just tape the races next week on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and closely monitor the break of each race. When you see any horse outbreak the field, check the odds right before they break and compare it to the final odds shown after the race is over (only look at the odds adjustment of the horse outbreaking the field).

If you do this, let me know what you think.

milwaukee mike · 03-11-12, 08:53 AM

andy i'm quite sure you're right. stuff like that wouldn't surprise me at all, and i agree that if it's happening that frequently it's dumb to bet the track.

andywend · 03-11-12, 09:42 AM

I assume this kind of thing happens at Quarter Horse tracks throughout the country.

I owned horses for over 15 years in Southern California and have been betting the races practically my entire life.

I don't go near the exotics due to the much higher takeout rate along with the increased possibility of foul play.

The best place to wager on horses is through Betmaker (an exchange where you get fixed prices and can bet horses to lose). However, the market maker is absolutely incredible and NEVER makes mistakes.

wtt0315 · 03-11-12, 09:46 AM

Mike,
Friday nights usually have the biggest fields. Sats are usually pretty good and sundays being the smallest. If you go the los al site and look at the ed boggort handicapp he gives you some good free plays and he shows his pick 4's which you can use.

Andy
I lost a huge pick 4 once because of what you are talking about. I had singled a horse in a leg that was scratched right at post time. It says you get the post time favorite so as they go to the gate i see i have a 6/5 fav. He wins the race and I am happy I got moved to the fav. I then see at then end of the race he is now 9-5 and their is another horse that is 8-5, so my picked got moved to a different horse. I hit the other three legs and it would of paid 2200. I was pretty furious considering that 8-5 went into the gate at 3-1.

milwaukee mike · 03-11-12, 09:53 AM

wtt did that 8-5 horse you got moved to start out in front?

wtt0315 · 03-11-12, 10:50 AM

its been a while ago probably like a year so don't remember the race to well, i just remember that. Aquaduct this happens a lot too. You will see a horse at 2-1 and then going into the final furlong you will see he is 6/5.. I heard from an annoucer on tvg once that this is because of the large amount of overseas money coming in late, but who knows.

ThaWoj · 03-11-12, 08:54 PM

the arlington "fix six" breeders cup scandal was supposed to get rid of past posting but i agree that its most likely possible that it still happens

singgooner · 03-12-12, 08:21 AM

lads, what you need is something like Hide My Ass web-site - then you can probably sign upto Betfair or Betdaq and gamble on American races taking a FIXED price you want and not having to sit at the screen and see your horse at EVS at the off and then click to 4/5 or 3/5 halfway down the back straight.

This is the only good thing about England - betting exchanges and asking and getting a price you dictate - instead of being at the mercy of the tote board !

EaglesPhan36 · 03-12-12, 08:24 AM

Do the superfecta.