what are the chances a democrat doesn't win election?

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  • MJT1212
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-16-09
    • 5124

    #1
    what are the chances a democrat doesn't win election?
    odds are -230 Dem

    tempted to go all in b/c im pretty sure obama will be re elected
  • HenryHill
    SBR MVP
    • 09-24-10
    • 1763

    #2
    ....
    Comment
    • andywend
      SBR MVP
      • 05-20-07
      • 4805

      #3
      Originally posted by MJT1212
      odds are -230 Dem

      tempted to go all in b/c im pretty sure obama will be re elected
      Why would you go all in at -230 when you can buy all the Obama you want at -150? I'm assuming an "all in" bet means you're planning on betting a substantial amount so it doesn't make much sense to buy Obama at an inflated price for your entire bankroll.

      Clearly, you're not much of a gambler or a liberal democrat and quite possibly both.

      The time to buy Obama was when things weren't going so well for him and he was an underdog. If you're going to bet on him now, don't do so at a ridiculously inflated price like -230.
      Comment
      • MJT1212
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-16-09
        • 5124

        #4
        Im at BetJewIslands, they only offer Dem or Republican...I'm about to switch over to 5Dimes in the next couple days though so I will probably wait and take your advice with Obama when I get there.
        Comment
        • ChalkyDog
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-02-11
          • 9598

          #5
          Never underestimate the voters in this country....
          Comment
          • McBa1n
            SBR MVP
            • 01-02-06
            • 2642

            #6
            Polish on a turd = a turd.
            Republicans aren't coming out to vote in most states like in the last go-around. Romney is the (R) candidate. He excites no one.
            Obama doesn't excite dems, either. I still think Obama wins easily. The (R) field is pathetic.
            Comment
            • CarpeDime
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-01-09
              • 7873

              #7
              trust me at some point it will be almost 50/50

              take the repubs and hedge out when it's around 50/50

              even immediately after the repub convention it will be a good hedge with what it is now

              trust me i know politics i also said from day 1 on here romney was a lock for the repub nomination
              Comment
              • 19th Hole
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 03-22-09
                • 18957

                #8
                Originally posted by andywend
                Why would you go all in at -230 when you can buy all the Obama you want at -150? I'm assuming an "all in" bet means you're planning on betting a substantial amount so it doesn't make much sense to buy Obama at an inflated price for your entire bankroll.

                Clearly, you're not much of a gambler or a liberal democrat and quite possibly both.

                The time to buy Obama was when things weren't going so well for him and he was an underdog. If you're going to bet on him now, don't do so at a ridiculously inflated price like -230.
                ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                Mark this on your calendar....The new meds are working...
                AndyWend actually exhibits a helpful compassionate
                conservative side.
                Only mild name calling and only one dig at liberals.
                Comment
                • nick86
                  Restricted User
                  • 04-27-11
                  • 632

                  #9
                  dems have this one on lock. Trust me
                  Comment
                  • jjgold
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-20-05
                    • 388179

                    #10
                    Dont care

                    Country ruined so it does not matter who wins
                    Comment
                    • nick86
                      Restricted User
                      • 04-27-11
                      • 632

                      #11
                      Originally posted by jjgold
                      Dont care

                      Country ruined so it does not matter who wins
                      being a little over dramatic there jj boy
                      Comment
                      • Easy-Rider 66
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-14-12
                        • 36775

                        #12
                        Originally posted by nick86
                        dems have this one on lock. Trust me
                        Obama leads Romney by 6 points in the last national poll. That will change after Romney wins the nomination. The experts are predicting a close race, so I would take the underdog. I think the Republicans are more united in their dislike of Obama, than the Democrats are in their support of Obama. Romney will aggressively court the middle once he gets the nomination. Look for this to go down to the wire.
                        Comment
                        • nick86
                          Restricted User
                          • 04-27-11
                          • 632

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                          Obama leads Romney by 6 points in the last national poll. That will change after Romney wins the nomination. The experts are predicting a close race, so I would take the underdog. I think the Republicans are more united in their dislike of Obama, than the Democrats are in their support of Obama. Romney will aggressively court the middle once he gets the nomination. Look for this to go down to the wire.
                          I doubt it. Obama is going to massacre romney in the debates.
                          Comment
                          • rkelly110
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 10-05-09
                            • 39691

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                            Obama leads Romney by 6 points in the last national poll. That will change after Romney wins the nomination. The experts are predicting a close race, so I would take the underdog. I think the Republicans are more united in their dislike of Obama, than the Democrats are in their support of Obama. Romney will aggressively court the middle once he gets the nomination. Look for this to go down to the wire.
                            Have to agree with this. 'bama's rating aren't the best. Continuing with Bush's policies
                            doesn't bode well with the Dems. We made history with the 1st black pres. The novelty
                            is over. Bush's second term was won by a squeaker. 'bama doesn't have a brother gov
                            to carry him.

                            The economy and gas prices will be the deciding factor.
                            Comment
                            • slacker00
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-06-05
                              • 12262

                              #15
                              Originally posted by CarpeDime
                              trust me at some point it will be almost 50/50

                              take the repubs and hedge out when it's around 50/50
                              This is what I'm thinking as well, buy the GOP now. Buy Obama right after GOP convention and before the first debate.
                              Comment
                              • milwaukee mike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-22-07
                                • 26914

                                #16
                                i think obama yo mama at -150 is a pretty decent deal. i don't think any repub other than ron paul (who won't get nom) has anything close to a 40% chance
                                Comment
                                • KC
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-12-07
                                  • 1613

                                  #17
                                  Gas prices the only thing scary about reelection
                                  Comment
                                  • durito
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-03-06
                                    • 13173

                                    #18
                                    pinny is at -211/193 who has -150? (*this was -105/-105 a couple months ago)
                                    Comment
                                    • Hoopster007
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 12-06-11
                                      • 32

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by nick86
                                      I doubt it. Obama is going to massacre romney in the debates.
                                      Why do you say that? Is Obama going to have a better teleprompter? There have been plenty of times when he is stumbling all over himself and struggles to read from it. And he needs a new speech writer. Usually you cannot say the same lies over and over and his SOTU speech is just repeated year after year with no results. So I guess that is why he doesn't mess that up.

                                      I agree that the republican candidates are not exciting but Obama has been so bad it will be a close race. The TV add for Repubs should be bits from past SOTU speeches and how he just keeps talking about the same stuff but hasn't done any of it. He just blames repubs. But he had control of congress when he was elected. Could have done whatever he wants. Sad part is, most americans are too dumb to notice any of this and they are swayed by the awful ads that are run during elections.
                                      Comment
                                      • willyback
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-15-07
                                        • 674

                                        #20
                                        Obama could lose if Romney is able to make the election close: ideally within five percentage points of Obama in the polls leading up to the election. If that were to occur, then either candidate could plausibly win the election, because the Republican establishment could effectively 'fix' and/or steal the election.

                                        Hear me out...

                                        19 states are in various stages of legislatively re-tooling their voting laws, in most cases making it substantially harder for likely democratic voters (such as students, women and minorities) to vote in the upcoming presidential election. That could drastically effect the number of votes cast for Obama.

                                        Voter enthusiasm is lukewarm at best. Voters are disillusioned with Obama's "change you can believe in" rhetoric. Even the "Obama Girl" is questioning whether she'll vote for him in 2012. His policies did not live up to the hype of his 2008 campaign. He's not going to enjoy the same historic voter turnout numbers that he had in 2008.

                                        The Supreme Court is decisively conservative. If battleground states such as Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania were to have razor thin election results, triggering recounts and a re-hatching of the 2000 presidential selection debacle, the elections will likely be decided by the Supreme Court (again). I can't imagine them ruling in favor of Obama.

                                        Romney has serious Super PAC money behind him. He could easily win the forthcoming political advertisement wars with Obama on TV. It could swing public opinion in his favor.

                                        Bottom line: Americans are just dumb enough to actually vote for a guy who made a career out of dismantling US workers and businesses.

                                        Obama is not a lock by any means.
                                        Comment
                                        • slacker00
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-06-05
                                          • 12262

                                          #21
                                          When it's down to Obama-Romney, I'd be mostly worried about the 3-1 bankroll Obama will have over Romney.
                                          Comment
                                          • statnerds
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-23-09
                                            • 4047

                                            #22
                                            i have been steadily buying positions on Reps. Currently you could also have field +600 vs Romney to win the nomination.

                                            you are fukkin nuts if you think obama wins easily. it will be a toss up, even with $1 billion dollars and the main stream media, barry might lose...imagine if it was a fair fight

                                            anyway, anyone relying on national polling data this late in the game is already fukked!!! believe it or not, results from individual states decide elections..perhaps you would be well served to check state-by-state data and re-evaluate that obama -230 position

                                            all in?

                                            haha

                                            fukkin hilarious
                                            Comment
                                            • dredmahawkus
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-26-09
                                              • 1803

                                              #23
                                              I got the dems -130 like 8 months ago.....I heard on a left wing radio station that even if all the swing states vote republican, then the dems still have enough to win!
                                              Comment
                                              • ACoochy
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-19-09
                                                • 13949

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by CarpeDime
                                                trust me at some point it will be almost 50/50

                                                take the repubs and hedge out when it's around 50/50

                                                even immediately after the repub convention it will be a good hedge with what it is now

                                                trust me i know politics i also said from day 1 on here romney was a lock for the repub nomination
                                                THIS....

                                                After Repubs finally nominate someone all it will take is for a poll or two to show reversing trends for the repubs and that -130 will be back in action....

                                                Thinkng anytime from mid-september dems will be good value at -140ish (me hopes)....
                                                Comment
                                                • statnerds
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-23-09
                                                  • 4047

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by dredmahawkus
                                                  I got the dems -130 like 8 months ago.....I heard on a left wing radio station that even if all the swing states vote republican, then the dems still have enough to win!
                                                  barry will win less than half the states, might only win 20, if Pa goes Rep. he will lose NC, Ohio and Fla, an 124 electoral swing from 2008.

                                                  fukkin hilarious that people are still going to vote for this incompetent, racist, clueless bum. fukk Americans are stupid.

                                                  you should be loading up on Reps now if they are +180 or better and the Arb some off when barry comes back down to -110.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • eleuropeano
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 05-06-11
                                                    • 392

                                                    #26
                                                    Only thing that matters are the voters in Ohio and Florida.

                                                    If Obama takes either Ohio or Florida he'll be president. Romney barely won Ohio against Santorum.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • InSaiyan
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 11-02-11
                                                      • 20

                                                      #27
                                                      Obama is going to win mostly because the Repub. doesn't have a good candidate to challenge him. I hate Romney!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • broadway6
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-14-09
                                                        • 13337

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by MJT1212
                                                        odds are -230 Dem

                                                        tempted to go all in b/c im pretty sure obama will be re elected

                                                        free money...$5 gas isn't enough for O to lose...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • RonPaul2008
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 06-08-07
                                                          • 6741

                                                          #29
                                                          40%
                                                          Comment
                                                          • baskets
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-24-11
                                                            • 11691

                                                            #30
                                                            great, 4 more years of Charleston Heston action in the White House

                                                            Comment
                                                            • LVHerbie
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-15-05
                                                              • 6344

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by ACoochy
                                                              THIS....

                                                              After Repubs finally nominate someone all it will take is for a poll or two to show reversing trends for the repubs and that -130 will be back in action....

                                                              Thinkng anytime from mid-september dems will be good value at -140ish (me hopes)....
                                                              There is usually a drop following a party's convention... If I was going to bet republican this would be the time I would be pricing the election...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • andywend
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-20-07
                                                                • 4805

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by durito
                                                                pinny is at -211/193 who has -150? (*this was -105/-105 a couple months ago)



                                                                [TD="class: price, align: right"]60.2[/TD]

                                                                [TD="class: price"]60.3[/TD]
                                                                Comment
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