This belongs in the Think Tank
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If they always gave the wrong side you'd just fade what they give. Unfortuneately, it's not that easy. What I am implying here is that all the data they offer for free and attract you to, is useless data for helping you win. Some of the most important data comes out 5 minutes before start time. You know like when it's a 7:05 game, and th TV announcers come on at 7:00 and give you the pregame show. This is where you can get some of the most up-to-date critically important tidbits, not to mention see any last minute line moves. You can prove this is true in places such as the SBR Sportsbook, who only takes wagers 8 minutes before the scheduled start time at the latest. If the data 8 minutes before the game was meaningless, why would SBR close lines so early? If anything, since they're not a real book that handles cash transactions, you'd think they'd at least take wagers up to the point that all the real books do, right? Well, the fact is, they don't, not even close.
What else could possibly be the reason why the SBR book intentionally so early takes their lines off the board? Is a real easy thing to program to take your lines down say for a 7:05 scheduled start time, at say 7:05. Of course many games start after the scheduled start time, and to me the books should keep the lines open until the events officially start, and not just at the scheduled start time. My theory is that the real books keep their lines open as late as possible (all of them that I use that take phone wagers, will still take a wager even if the game is off the board, as long as they can verify that the game has not yet started), because their in competition to be the book you choose for your action. Naturally, if one Book stayed open 'til actual start time, and another closed lines 8 minutes early, you'd choose the more user friendy book. And since SBR isn't a real book, and it's members aren't risking cash to win the prizes, SBR to lower it's risk closes the lines early like they do. Like I've stated many time before, sites can run their business anyway they like; it's their business. If SBR wants to shut down lines say even 15 minutes early, who am I to tell them how to run their business? All that I am suggesting, is that if it is your policy to shut down lines early, you openly disclose the policy instead of concealing it. This allows members to plan accordingly, not be in the dark about policy, and decide for themselves if they want to play there or not.
One member informed me that the SBR clock is off 3 minutes, and I've disproved that as SBR has a running clock right above the lines when you request them to be listed ...
Lines From:03-05-2012 11:59:17
... and this clock is 100% accurate. I'd like to see SBR openly disclose their policy, or instead of stating 7:00 for a 7:05 start time like they always do, which implies that though they're not taking action until 7:05, they are taking action until 7:00, and change it to the time that they are in fact actually taking action. Thus, if they're going to shut down a line at say 6:57, for a game scheduled to start at 7:05, then 6:57 is what they should say. Instead, the times SBR lists are wrong, highly misleading, and frustrating. One easy remedy to employ, is to simply not use the SBR book if it's going to frustrate you instead of entertaining you, and that's what I've chosen to do.Comment -
sbrodds.com will help you more than anythingComment -
wilhelm at the rx is a genius will always steer you in the rite directionComment -
What Covers and the free sites are intentionally giving you, is regular, routine, run-of-the mill, general public info. Such as in my first post of this thread, when Covers, the line, and the consensus was all over Wash over UCLA. They offer a tidbit on the game about the UCLA coach in a negative light in a recent SI story. So Covers choses to highlight certain publicly known tidbits, which is all common info, and they spread this info on their site. This attracts more readers, and more folks gaining this public knowledge, and so how can we use this data to help us win money?
Human nature when you read a negative SI story on a coach of a team, and have it reposted on the web, is to not like that team. You are now drawn into betting against UCLA, just like folks were drawn into betting against Penn State. It's this useless free data that causes the consensus to heavily lean on a side, that I am tracking as a way to stay sharp. The media interviews players and coaches, and Covers can pull out certain quotes to make a story, which as a gambler is going to push your buttons. What I am learning, is that when it's the obvious public line movement consensus button being pushed, I don't want to be a lamb, and so I am no longer tailing public plays.
You read here daily how the Public is going to take bath on this one, or on that one, and on a majority of the time, the Public does get clean ... cleaned out! In order for the bookies to stay in business, much less make boatloads like they do, the obvious plays have to lose a majority of the time. The majority cannot always win, otherwise, there are no bookies. The concept of going with the majority, in an effort to win money, has never done well for me. How's it doing for you?
Now the concept of going against the majority, well, went 5 for 5 in the first test [though there were 7 picks in the first post, the last 2 games did not have what the first 5 games had, which is that in those 5 games the line movements, general consensus, and expert consensus were all leaning on the same pimped teams. In the last 2 games, there were other indications: NC was being pimped, the line was leaning on NC, but the experts weren't on NC they were on Duke ... same for Kansas that was being pimped, experts were on TX].
So determing the possible teams to bet on is easy, by seeing which teams Covers and the media are pimping and pushing our buttons, and seeing if the line, general consensus, and expert consensus is leaning on the team being pimped. Once you have the team to possibly fade, now comes the tough part where you need to deterimine if you want to pull the trigger.Comment -
Take it from me who learned the hard way, by spending (losing) a lot of money on lessons learned. Though I'm a knowledgeable sports guy, and my prime picks do well as my spreadsheet this year proved, I'd give back my winnings by veering off path and losing focus. I would do this by throwing in a 1st quarter total, or taking a 2nd half line, or just to have some action take the late night game on TV. Those days are over, as I want to gamble to win money first, and have fun second, not have fun first and if I win that's icing on the cake.
If I'm not having fun first, and I'm consistently winning money, does that mean I'm no longer a recreational gambler and am subject to forfeiting my wininings like I always read about? Well, I'll worry first about consistently winning, then I'll be sure to use the right Books.
To win money, I'd suggest creating a model/formula for winning, that has been proven to be successful, and sticking to it. Otherwise, you're a lamb volunterring to be slaughtered.Comment -
[QUOTE=jjgold;14014833 will help you more than anything[/QUOTE] Nothing better than one-stop shopping.Comment -
Stats actually mean nothing as far as sports betting outcomes, its why most loseComment -
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But they're not sleeping, as they said they wouldn't sleep 'til all their members who had their money stolen got it back. So they've been awake now for what, a year
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Covers is run by scammers
They stole a lot of cash from books and playersComment -
Looking at Toledo, as like NC when the line was leaning NC and the consensus was on NC, but experts were on Duke ... well line is leaning on Toledo and the consensus is on Toldeo, but 69% of the experts on Miami. Fade the experts play then would be ...
Rockets -2Comment -
I like using covers.com because it lays out stats nicely and line movement as well as public sides, and line movements.
Also history of previous matchups, and previous games, and ats records and o/u records.Comment -
Over 70% of their consensus is on NHL Pitt, and over 80% of experts on Pitt, but late line movement leaning Phx. Fade the expert play then would be ...
Coyotes +1.5 maybe try for an NHL puck line play which wins 80% of the time
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If you like stats, they got 'em. They've got plenty of them, free of charge too. You can find what the home team record is when a particular ref is doing the game. How that helps you win money, is what I'm trying to find out.
What I do like about their site, is their real-time scoreboard, that gives projections, and hyper links to line movements & the consensus.Comment -
Line movement was on NBA Orlando, and the consensus and experts heavily leaned on Orlando. Let's see if Orlando tonight is the lamb.
Raptors +6.5 I'll call it, as the game has started though it's tied in the 1st, but the line closed at +7Comment -
free picks go 50/50 at the very best.Comment -
Line movement on NBA Philly, consensus and experts heavily on Philly, is Philly a lamb tonight?Comment -
Tonight fade the experts card ...
NCAA Rockets -2
NHL Coyotes +1.5
Raptors +6.5
Bucks +2.5
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Looks like Gonzaga being pimped ...
NCAAB: St. Mary’s is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
"Key stat
38.2 percent – That’s what Gonzaga shoots from beyond the arc, best in the West Coast Conference. Saint Mary’s ranks eighth of nine WCC teams in defending the 3-pointer, allowing opponents to shoot 36.7 percent. The rivals play Monday night in Las Vegas for the conference championship"
Line heavily leaning on the 'Zags, and the total consensus and experts are leaning 'Zags. Is Gonzaga a lamb tonight?
Adding on the watch list:
Gaels +2.5
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So far on games I've noticed, the experts are 0-3 (Duke, TX & Miami) when opposite the general consensus. And each time, the line leaned on the fave who won
1 for 1 so far tonight, with 4 more to go.
Make that 3 for 3 so far with 2 more to go.Comment -
Could it be 12 & 0 posted plays against the experts
Yes it could ...
UConn & UCLA faves that covered ... NW & TN dogs that covered (& won SU), 'Cuse, NC, KS faves that covered, OH ST dog that covered (& won SU), TO dog that covered, Tol fave that covered, Mil and ST M 2 dogs that covered (& won SU)
6 for 6 faves, 6 for 6 dogs (with 5 of 6 dogs winning SU)
In fact, 13-0 if you want kick in the Phx +1.5, but let's leave the pucks out of the equation to simplify things.
Let's go for 20-0, and really test this thing
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cool story bro,
I enjoy reading the fuckery about those scheming ass experts working with the bookies.
So tonight the pros said go with orl -6.5, and phildephia-2.5?
And it all went the other way?Comment -
Covers and Vegas Insider are mainly tout sites now and promote real bad books
They have no respectComment -
Feeling the need to clarify who the 'experts' are as I understand it, and if I'm wrong I'd surely like to be enlightened. Anyone, I repeat any Joe Schmoe can go to Covers and register for free. Once registered, a member can enter their handicapping contests. Thousands upon thousands of Joe Schmoes do this for free fun. Now of the thousands upon thousands of Schmoes who are making picks, the Schmoes with the best picking records are deemed 'experts'. It's not to say that these are, nor do they claim to be professional gamblers. For all we know, the 'experts' might be picking teams by the color of their uniforms, or just blindly playing their favorite teams, or just flipping a coin. And, perhaps some experts are in fact consistent winners (which would be hard to believe that they would publish their picks for free). Now to me, no matter how these folks obtained the top picks winning percentages, really doesn't matter. If someone has picked winners at say 85%, even it's by which team's uniform they like better, so be it. If that's how they choose a winner, and it's working, all that matters is that out of all the Schmoes making picks in the pool, these Schmoes are the folks who historically speaking are the most successful.
So when a majority of these experts, or top Schmoes, are leaning on a team today, it is a fair to realize that for whatever reason that team is attracting a majority of the action in their isolated pool. Now just because these Schmoes are leaning on a team, surely doesn't mean that the amount of cash throughout all the books is also being wagered on that team. We have seen where the line moved and general consensus was on NC, while experts were on Duke, same thing for KS, where experts were on TX. Just from my research, if a team like last night's Gonzaga is being pimped, their experts and general consensus is leaning Gonzaga, and the line movement is leaning Gonzaga, you have the ingredients of the making and then subsequent slaughtering of a lamb.
Logic says that a majority of gamblers lose, and so for you to win you have to bet against the public, or you're volunteering to be the next lamb. God knows that I normally would've backed Gonzaga myself last night. All the tidbits I read favored Gonzaga. A majority of the consensus and experts were on Gonzaga. The line was leaning on Gonzaga, and I normally would be inclined to jump aboard the Gonzaga play myself. Thing is, I'd then normally lose.
Now if I was insane, I'd just keep doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result. Since I am not insane, I realize to win I have to do something different. Cannot take pimped plays that the majority and line movements are leaning on, as simply they lose a majority of the time. It's time to win, and let all the Schmoes digest the tidbits, trends and tales. Let them come up with what team the majority like to back the most, and then simply determine if you want to pull the trigger on the team that is being backed by the minority. If not, it's a no play, unless you want to become lamb chops.Comment -
On their 'Top Sportsbooks' page they're promoting Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Legends &, Justbet which are all A-rated books, aren't they? I do see that they also list Sbgglobal, Easystreetsports & Topbet, which are all D-rated books. So appears they're comingling the good with the bad. How they can still promote D-rated sportsbooks, after their infamous history, is a blatant atrocity. Proves that they're not in business to help you win, if you go where they lead you that is. You know what happens to lambs who are led and follow?Comment -
Wilhelm hasn't across the street for months now. He was let go in December 2011. There is a whole thread in their RR.Comment -
I just like the match-up breakdowns on Covers. As far as helping you win, I don't think that any of these sites can do that.
Remember that this whole sports betting thing is predicated on the majority of us losing.Comment -
Wilhelmina got chucked
Too much fraudComment -
Line Movements, consensus and experts all heavily leaning on Minutemen & Mean Green, and los Lakers. Thus ...
Dukes +4.5
Hilltoppers +3
Pistons +6Comment -
The NHL pick of the night is ...
Devils @ -105
Are the Rangers a big juicy lamb tonight?Comment
