Trying to make +EV plays anyway I can...

[dj_destroyer]

I clearly nominated the second part of that post and not the first...

FLC is good peoples and a smart cat; when he speaks, I listen.

[RudyRuetigger]

it might be just me, but i think everyone knows to make positive expected value wagers as opposed to negative ones.

[dj_destroyer]

it might be just me, but i think everyone knows to make positive expected value wagers as opposed to negative ones.

Which is why I nominated it... because no matter what FLC says, making +EV bets is the best way to make money. I understand what FLC is trying to say in his post concerning the matter but the bottomline is +EV is everything.

[smoke a bowl]

Which is why I nominated it... because no matter what FLC says, making +EV bets is the best way to make money. I understand what FLC is trying to say in his post concerning the matter but the bottomline is +EV is everything.

Only problem here is that your parlay is -EV. Especially when you consider that Pitt is now an 11 point favorite.

[RudyRuetigger]

no it isn't

as i said:

if you are given 2 choices:

risk $1 on a coin flip given -101 odds
risk net worth on a coin flip given +101 odds

which would you choose?

is +EV everything? not in this case

[dj_destroyer]

no it isn't

as i said:

if you are given 2 choices:

risk $1 on a coin flip given -101 odds
risk net worth on a coin flip given +101 odds

which would you choose?

is +EV everything? not in this case

So you craft an ultimatum to fit your point?

I thought it went without saying that bankroll management is obviously included in the big picture of successful sports investment. Just because you have a +EV situation does not mean you bet your entire bankroll.... that's ludicrous (which makes your analogy ludicrous).

But because I'm dealing with goobers, I'll correct myself: +EV opportunities and sound money management are everything.

[RudyRuetigger]

unbelievable.

am i talking to brick walls in this thread?

[RudyRuetigger]

Did you not read 4LC post about +EV not being everything. I've loosely followed some of your threads and if the BR you've reported is accurate, this is an exorbitant % of your BR, even for a +ev play.

just so you're clear. this is where the argument started. i agreed with the kraken.

i dont need sportsmushroom to tell me the only way to make money in the long run is by betting plays that have a positive return.

[FourLengthsClear]

FLC, I'd love to hear your opinion about exploiting static markets in my thread over HERE.

I don't know much about Proline but if I have read correctly they offer the opportunity to bet on heavily juiced parlays with lines that don't move.

I guess it would be possible to grind out a return but if you are just using Pinny as the the 'fair' line it would seem that there are many better/easier options out there. As a Canadian you have access to lots of safe slow moving books which it can take years to churn through even before you have consider the Justin7 approach of having your father/brother/goldfish open accounts at the least competent of these (not that I would condone that!).

[The Kraken]

why do you listen to that guy? he is someone that read a book and thinks that now he is smart, well he is probably smarter than you since you actually find logic in what he says the meaning of a +ev bet is one with a positive expected return, one that will yield a % return on the investment, by the very definition of the term, it means that if you make a bet that is not +ev (does not have a positive expected return) then you are losing money on your investment, because that means it has a negative expected return (-ev)

The basis of my statement came from the fact I thought he was over betting this play because it's a correlated parlay. I could be wrong. But I think I roughly know his BR because he has posted it many times in other threads. And if it's even close to what I perceive it is, he's betting a pretty big % of his BR on this parlay, probably because it's correlated. It's really just water cooler talk at this point. I hope he wins and don't care enough either way to keep this going. I just don't understand where Sports Mushroom was going. We understand the importance of +EV but no, it's not everything. I wasn't really discussing +ev vs. -ev plays. Maybe I missed your point mushroom.

[RudyRuetigger]

and there it is

a guy that thinks that +ev = +odds is trying to school me

i laugh at this every time i click on the thread