Why do people spend hours doing writeups?

[daggerkobe]

Just genuinely want to help fellow men make money or other more sinister motives?

I like helping fellow gamblers too but not interested in spending more than 5 mins (about how long I spend on researching picks).

[LT Profits]

If I already researched a game anyway, it is no big deal to do a write-up. The more the better, as maybe someone may have overlooked one aspect of a game or another.

[woodg8]

To show they're the best handicapper and have the "I told you so" smugness about them when it comes off. Little kids attitude.

[VegasDave]

^I think thats true for some, but not all. I (being one myself) genuinely believe some people just want to share with you picks they think will be winners for your benefit as well.

[Willie Bee]

Maybe because they enjoy it. Possibly it's a way of organizing their own thoughts and angles on the game. Perhaps it is because they're not afraid to show off that they did indeed pay attention in school when the teachers were discussing spelling, sentence structure and grammar.

The 'little kids attitude' belongs only to those who seem more worried about what someone else is doing than what's going on in their own life.

[woodg8]

^I think thats true for some, but not all. I (being one myself) genuinely believe some people just want to share with you picks they think will be winners for your benefit as well.

Oh don't get me wrong, there's some on here who I also believe are just tipping games to make others money, as well as themselves (Topgame being one that comes off the top of my head), but then you get others who are just doing it for the glory (I'm not gonna name names but have a look for threads with "!!" and silly words like BANGER PLAY!! and FIREE!! and you get an idea what their angle is).

[Fishhead]

Finding and getting the best number on a game is what this business is all about.........way more so than anyones opinion on a game.

Not saying opinions are not a factor, but THE NUMBER is the most critical thing.

[fiveteamer]

I could never do write ups because I don't handicap the games, I don't know the names of the players.

Mostly a gut feeling for me.

This explain my 40% winning.

[daggerkobe]

Nice honesty fiveteamer

[VegasDave]

Finding and getting the best number on a game is what this business is all about.........way more so than anyones opinion on a game.

Not saying opinions are not a factor, but THE NUMBER is the most critical thing.

Agreed... but it saddens me to see guys like JJ and Nicky say "no one wins at this game" and "it can't be beat"...

No reason why one person shouldn't be able to combine line shopping, money management, and sound handicapping into a profitable affair long run.

99.9% of gamblers (myself included, but I haven't given up on getting better) are their own worst enemy.

[I.R.B]

Agreed... but it saddens me to see guys like JJ and Nicky say "no one wins at this game" and "it can't be beat"...

No reason why one person shouldn't be able to combine line shopping, money management, and sound handicapping into a profitable affair long run.

99.9% of gamblers (myself included, but I haven't given up on getting better) are their own worst enemy.

Well put bud... Also you're vids are great keep it up...

[Fishhead]

Agreed... but it saddens me to see guys like JJ and Nicky say "no one wins at this game" and "it can't be beat"...

No reason why one person shouldn't be able to combine line shopping, money management, and sound handicapping into a profitable affair long run.

99.9% of gamblers (myself included, but I haven't given up on getting better) are their own worst enemy.

USC---Tremendous thoughts on the ISU-IOWA game in your video...........you were spot on with me in your thinking on that game. I even showed my girlfriend the video and told her this sounds like me analyzing this game.

Coming from Iowa, that particular game has made me money on a very consistant basis.

[Justin7]

Anyone can make picks. Good picks require good reasoning. If you write it up and your analysis is solid, people will think higher of you - win or lose. It's the first step in networking in gambling, where the real money is.

[Bread]

Can only speak for myself...I'm hardly a tout...I just enjoy writing up a piece and placing some of my bizarre humor in it.

If you enjoy it, great. If you hate it, great.

Just as long as you don't hate it.

[Heartman2]

Hard core research is the most critical thing in gambling.

[VegasDave]

Thanks Fish...

Its funny, I've been telling everyone who will listen to me that if I get to the financial point where I can afford satellite TV etc. and watch games out of area + have the time to put hours more into handicapping, I really feel like getting the time to know non-top 25 teams inside and out is a fvcking goldmine.

Every week we see everyone's top picks and every week they are Pac 10 and SEC teams. Mainly because these are the teams we know the best that get the most coverage. But the lines on these games are so razor sharp, even the best cappers will have trouble beating them.

It is the Troy, Tulsa, Iowa, Toledo, Florida Atlantic, etc etc type teams where all the money is. These lines are often very lazy; I catch a few every week just being a recreational capper! If I could get to the point where I knew teams like New Mexico and Kent State inside and out, I'm 100% sure I could bury the books week in and week out on lines with false favorites and live dogs.

Maybe I'm just young and naive, but I really wonder why people don't spend more time on teams like this.

[Fishhead]

USC--good point and may be one of the reasons I've been successful at this for such a long period.

Very fortunate to have grown up in Iowa and am able to follow, with a fans interest, the IOWAS, IOWA STATES, NORTHERN IOWA'S, and DRAKES of the world..........and more importantly, the conferences they play in.

[Fishhead]

USC--good point and may be one of the reasons I've been successful at this for such a long period.

Very fortunate to have grown up in Iowa and am able to follow, with a fans interest, the IOWAS, IOWA STATES, NORTHERN IOWA'S, and DRAKES of the world..........and more importantly, the conferences they play in.

This is precisely why bookmakers fear the first month of college basketball.........tons of relatively easy winners for sharps there.

[VegasDave]

This is precisely why bookmakers fear the first month of college basketball.........tons of relatively easy winners for sharps there.

Definitely... I'm not a basketball fan unfortunately so I have zero knowledge capping it, but if I ever get in the game for real, I have to pick it up. From what I understand, some of these opening lines, especially on low-end and division 2 teams, are flat out laughably bad.

[jjgold]

Nothing wrong with write ups, some guys like explaining their picks

[jgm1967]

Anyone can make picks. Good picks require good reasoning. If you write it up and your analysis is solid, people will think higher of you - win or lose. It's the first step in networking in gambling, where the real money is.

Good post.I love writeups because I have followed cappers for years and some of them just go belly up one season and there seems to be no logical explanation.

At least if I have writeups,I can figure out what angle this poster is capping his game and should I follow.A few cappers off top top of my head like buffetgambler and sherwood or services like ras and edward are worth the read ,no matter if the pick wins or loses.

I have subscribed to services before and basically just had picks sent to me and very little analysis and sometimes no writeups.Writeups,at least to me, are an obvious indicator of how much time someone spent capping a game.

[daggerkobe]

rush at covers has the largest following with no writeups. I think he's hitting over 60%.

[Doug]

Nobody tops Mistaflava at RX for writing up a game !

Sunday, September 14



Buffalo Bills +5 (10 Units)

The Buffalo Bills are the real deal this season and it looks like it's going to take some time before oddsmakers adjust to that and realize that this team could potentially be the front-runner in the AFC. Yes they would be darkhorse front-runners but with the Patriots losing Tom Brady for the season and with other AFC teams in seasons of transition, I really think a) the Bills finally make the playoffs after so many years of absence and b) the Bills reach the AFC Conference game and possibly the Super Bowl. They have everything you need to be a winning team. Buffalo has a young punt/kick returning star, Buffalo has a young up-and-coming QB who has shown veteran poise the last two seasons (anyone remember his NFL debut against Dallas on Monday Night Football?), Buffalo has one of the toughest running backs in the NFL who can get you those extra yards, Buffalo has one of the best secondaries in the NFL and Buffalo has a chip on their shoulder having just missed out on the playoffs the last few seasons. Their season opening win over Seattle was a statement to the rest of the AFC that they are one year more experienced this time around and there is going to be a non-nonsense type of approach from here on in. The Bills come into this game off that incredible 34 point performance that saw them amass 338.0 total yards of offense in that game for 5.6 yards per play. The Jaguars defense was embarrassed on many occasions in their opener as they allowed 17.0 points in that game on 309.0 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground is where the Bills need to work things out in this game because they rushed for only 106 yards in the opener on 3.7 yards per carry but pounding away on a defense that allowed 137.0 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry last week is going to make things a lot easier in the air (seeing how the Bills struggled to pass on the road last season). QB Trent Edwards looked great in the opener completing 63.3% of his passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown and a QB Rating of 95.8 which is a great to start the season. Jacksonville allowed the Titans to complete 58.3% of their passes last week for 7.2 yards per pass attempt but they did have two interceptions which tells me that they are a bit overaggressive and that could cost them in this game. Lee Evans has tremendous speed downfield, expect him to use it for a score or two here. The Bills did not look all that great on third downs last week converting only 25% of them in the game against Seattle but they showed great discipline and came out of that game with only one penalty to their names. The Jaguars had all sorts of problems with their Red Zone defense as Tennessee scored touchdowns in both their trips to that area and that is a concern when you have a decent Red Zone team like the Bills. The key for Buffalo in this game is going to be simple. Control the ball, move the chains and let the tempo come to you because the crowd is going to be loud for the home opener and the Jaguars are going to be hungry for a win. Having said that, Buffalo has too many underrated playmakers on the team this season and I think their offense can do just enough to win this game. No doubt the Jags are going to tighten things up defensively but as the Bills showed last season, they can certainly win close games on the road. Buffalo wins this on a late field goal and I am banking on that.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the most disappointing teams to watch last weekend (although I was at the Bills game and only saw some replays of their game against captain depression). The perception when betting on NFL games is that teams who start slow are going to bounce back the next week and win big but I don't see that happening here because this game has way too many early season playoff implications. I know its early to talk about playoffs but let's face it, if the Wildcard is up for grabs late in the season it is most likely that these two teams will be the ones vying for that spot and a win or loss here could come back to help or haunt these teams. Jacksonville had no problems demolishing the Bills at home last season to the tune of 36-14 as -9 point favorites but that game has no relevance whatsoever in my mind as RB Marshawn Lynch was out for the Bills and JP Losman was the starting QB for Buffalo (he is the king of making rookie mistakes even though he has been in the NFL for years now). So with the regular crew back in business the Jaguars are in for a much tougher fight this time and something tells me this Jacksonville team will need a few more weeks to recover from the Collier shooting that rocked the team right before the start of the season. Jacksonville looked pathetic in their opener managing to score only 10 points and the worst part is the offense managed only 189.0 total yards of offense in that game on only 3.6 yards per play. Knock the Bills defense all you want but they are going to open some eyes this season and they allowed only 10 points in their home opener on 252.0 total yards of offense allowed and 4.2 yards per play in that game. On the ground, the RB tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew was nowhere to be seen as the Jags managed only 33 total rushing yards in that game on 1.9 yards per carry. I expect a much better performance from this team in Week 2 as the Bills defense (if you picked a weakness it would be their run defense) allowed Seattle to rush for 85 yards last week on a decent 4.0 yards per carry. However, with the crowd going nuts you know Jacksonville will want to throw the ball in this game and that might not be a good thing seeing how horrendous QB David Garrard looked. He completed only 65.7% of his passes last week for 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. Believe me when I say he is in for a surprise if his offensive line plays that poorly again this week as Kiwanuka is a new force on the Bills defensive line and he led this team to 5 sacks against Seattle. The Bills allowed the Seahawks to complete only 41.5% of their passes last week for only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. I think the Bills can bring some huge pressure packages in this game and have some success seeing how the Jaguars were sacked a whopping 7 times last week and I doubt that can be fixed less than seven days later. Not only did they record five sacks in their opener but this defense recovered one fumble and intercepted one pass to go along with the sacks. The Jaguars were a decent 35.5% when it comes to conversion rate on third downs but the Bills have a very stout bend but don't break style of defense that allowed Seattle to convert only 18.8% of their passes last season. Buffalo did not allow a single red zone touchdown last week and their defense is the reason they are going to keep games close to the end and have a shot when it matters most. What the Bills really have to watchout for here is the special teams play of the Jaguars because they were returning kickoffs for an average of 34.5 yards last week and returning punts an average of 22.5 yards last week (both way above the NFL yearly average). Jacksonville will look a lot better than they did last week against Tennessee but the Bills defense is too good this season and they will give their team a serious shot to win.

GRAB EM WHILE THEY'RE HOT, or until oddsmakers realize what is going I should say. This is not a homer play by any means but I do admit to having a very good feeling for how my team is going to play and the Bills should come out of the gates hard in this one. Going 2-0 means a lot because that would put the predicted playoff bound Jaguars at 0-2 and finding themselves trailing the rest of the AFC group. Don't make the fatal mistake of looking at last year's meeting between these two teams even though Jacksonville won 36-14 as -9 point favorites. I know I have already talked about this but RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards both missed that crucial game and their replacements JP Losman and Anthony Thomas were completely useless as always. Buffalo has always been a team to bet on at this time of the season and surprisingly enough they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Week 2 matchups. Jacksonville is not a team you really want to ever fade when they play at home but let me point out that the only time to go against them is probably early in the season because they always start off slowly and it takes time for Del Rio to get his guys going. I really like the Bills to continue looking good in this game as both Lynch and Edwards will make all the difference in the world this time around.

Trend of the Game: Buffalo is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games that follow a straight up win.


Buffalo 19, Jacksonville 16





Minnesota Vikings +1 (5 Units)

The Indianapolis Colts not only shocked themselves with their Week 1 performance but they also shocked the NFL world and the NFL betting worlds which could play an even bigger impact on this game. I watched the entire Colts and Bears game on Sunday Night and something was very apparent to me and that was that the Colts look a lot older than they did the last few seasons and it seems like just about every team in the NFL has figured these guys out to the point where the Colts weapons are useless. If you stop the run game and drop some guys into underneath coverage, Peyton Manning is going to struggle. The Colts not only looked bad in that game but they looked like a team that won't even come close to contending for a playoff spot this season and sitting with two Colts fans during that game was pretty damn painful. I have never seen Colts fans be that dejected about their teams performance and the optimism was not good. These two teams don't come together too often but Minnesota has dominated the series that resumes after a four year layoff. My beef with the Colts is that a) they can't stop the run and AP is knocking on their door, b) Marvin Harrison looks old, c) Peyton Manning too, d) Jeff Saturday is still out and we notice it big time and e) Addai where you at? The Colts come off that horrendous performance against the Bears that saw them score only 13 points in that game and they managed to do that on only 293.0 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. I know Minnesota's defense looked bad last week but we have to cut them a break as it was Aaron Rodgers Monday Night era debut and it's okay to allow 24 points in that game on 317 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play in that game. On the ground, the Colts never really got anything going as they managed only 53.0 total rushing yards in the Bears game on only 3.5 yards per carry and although Minnesota looked horrendous against Ryan Grant allowing 139.0 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry in that game, they still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and I expect that to come into play this game. In the air, QB Peyton Manning looked pretty damn lost against the Bears and that could have to do with all the pressure he faced in that game. He completed only 61.2% of his passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown pass but that won't be enough to win this game. The Vikings defense is due for a bounce back game here and I doubt we see them allow the Colts to complete 81.8% of their passes like Green Bay did to them last week for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Again that game was a toss out for the defense. Manning was sacked twice in the opener and with Minnesota not managing a single sack with their newly revamped offensive line last week, you can expect a ton of pressure packages in this game. The Colts will always be a good third down team as long as Peyton Manning is around and they managed to convert 45.5% of their third down plays last week so don't think they won't move the chains in this game. The Vikings allowed Green Bay to convert 40.0% of their third down chances and allowed touchdowns in 66.7% of their trips to the red zone. Indianapolis however managed to score touchdowns in only 33.3% of their trips to the red zone and that's not impressive at all. Looking back on the first game of the season, the Colts offense didn't play all that bad at all but the Vikings defense is due and this is the home opener which has me thinking this defense is going to be lethal under the power of their own home crowd. The Colts used to beat any kind of defense thrown at them but as the Bears showed last week, this team is getting old and they have too many kinks to workout this season.

The Minnesota Vikings knew what they were getting into last week when they walked into Lambeau Field on a Monday Night and that had to be one of the most predictable NFL games and outcomes in history of the league. Having said that, you have to love the way this team fought back near the end and a complete game out of that. They came within inches of winning the football game and screwing just about everyone on the spread but it wasn't meant to be and the Vikings needed to play an entire game of good football, not just the final few minutes. I do however believe they come into this game with a ton of momentum seeing how close they came to ruining the Aaron Rodgers party. What I like the most about the Vikings right now is that they are not satisfied with their opening week loss and they don't have many injuries to hamper them in this game. The confines of the MetroDome have been nice to them and like I said before, this place is going to get crazy loud. We all saw what that Bears rookie RB Forte did to the Colts last week so can you imagine what Adrian Peterson is going to do when he gets unleashed on these guys? The Vikings lost both their home games here in the pre-season so in a way they owe it to their fans to show up for this one. Minnesota did manage to actually look good offensively in their opener on Monday as they not only scored 19 points in that game but they managed a very decent and impressive 355.0 total yards of offense on 5.2 yards per play which was more in the end than the Packers got. Indianapolis looked like absolute crap in their home opener against the Bears as they managed to allow 29 points to a team that struggled to score points last season and they allowed those points on 319.0 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. I think this game is going to be won and lost on the ground as RB Adrian Peterson is about to be unleashed. The Vikings rushed for a whopping 187 total yards last week on 5.7 yards per carry and that is going to be a huge problem for a Colts defense that allowed a rookie RB to have the best game he will probably have all season. The Colts allowed 183.0 rushing yards last week on 4.7 yards per carry and if you can't stop Adrian Peterson you are not going to stop the Vikings and their attack. QB Tarvaris Jackson is not the most prominent QB in the NFL but you have to give him credit. He completed only 45.7% of his passes last week for 5.1 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown with 1 interception but I see him having a lot more success this time around as the Colts defense allowed the Bears to complete 61.9% of their passes in that game for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. One thing was evident with this Colts defense when they came off the field in the opener and that was that they lacked aggression and intensity to win games. They forced no fumbles whatsoever in the opener and they grabbed on interceptions (Orton and Grossman should both be interception machines against most defenses in the NFL this season). What I also liked about the Vikings is that they looked good on third downs in their opener converting 43.8% of their chances which should be a huge problem for the Colts in this game seeing how the Bears won because they converted a whopping 62.5% of their third down chances in that game. Indianapolis also allowed Chicago to score touchdowns in half their trips to the red zone and like I said before, AP should get this team into the redzone on many occasions in this game. I know it was the road opener and I know it was at Lambeau but the Vikings really need to improve on special teams as their punt returns and kickoff returns did not generate enough yardage to give Jackson and company some continuous decent field position. I do think Minnesota comes out of their shells in this game and I think they beat the Colts to send them off to an 0-2 record.

If you decided to play the game of percentages, Minnesota is the easy play here because this looks like the ultimate sucker play of the week on Indianapolis and every ass clown average Joe who watches the NFL only because they can bet on it, is going to be on the Colts in this game. The general perception year in and year out in the NFL is that teams who have been good the last few seasons are going to continue being good forever and teams that have been bad will continue to be bad. Well the Colts are part of that theory and they have lived up to the billing and been a playoff contender for the last who knows how many years. Having said that, I really think this is going to be an off year for this team as their defense doesn't look as good as the Super Bowl winning defense of a few years ago and the offense is predictable and old it seems. They need some new blood on the offensive side of things. I also think AP is going to tear Indianapolis a new one in this game seeing how they couldn't stop the run last week. Both teams have decent ATS records early in the season the last few years but other than these two teams have been anything but ATS machines in those seasons. I really like the Vikings to dominate on both sides of the ball and I love it even more that the public is pounding the Colts.

Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last five games on turf.


Minnesota 34, Indianapolis 24





Denver Broncos -1 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The San Diego Chargers probably still don't have a clue what hit them last week. Well I can tell you right now that it was a Jake Delhomme pass deep in the endzone and it was a game winning pass at that. Not only did Carolina shock the NFL world with that pass but they sent the Chargers into a bit of a problem world because they are now in danger of starting the season 0-3 SU (with the Jets at home next although I think they'll win that game). The Chargers looked good for the most part of their loss to Carolina but it became very apparent that Shawn Merriman is very missed in this defense and his leadership is one of the big reasons this team has won so many games over the last few seasons. It would be easy to take the Chargers in this game for the simple fact that they are now 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Denver the last two seasons scoring at least 35 points in their last two visits to Mile High, something I don't think will happen again this season. The Chargers did not look good in either one of their pre-season road games and for those of you who don't remember, this team went 0-2 in their first two road games of 2007 losing to New England and Green Bay by an average of 15.5 points per game. So it's obvious this is a team that comes out of the gates asleep and this should be no different this time around. San Diego comes into this game off a 24 point performance in their home opener that saw them amass a total of 316.0 total yards of offense and 5.9 yards per play. That's not bad at all but it was only Carolina and this Denver defense looked hungry in their opener as they allowed only 14 points (some in garbage time) and they managed to allow only 317.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play. On the ground, surprisingly enough the Panthers were able to contain LT and hold the Chargers to only 105.0 rushing yards in that game on 3.9 yards per carry. However, I think LT is going to enjoy running here a little bit more seeing how the Broncos allowed 150 rushing yards in their opener against the Raiders on 4.8 yards per carry (again some of those carries were huge ones in garbage time). Denver's run defense has always been an issue but I think they can contain LT here and the offense can run most of the clock forcing the Chargers to throw. QB Philip Rivers completed 63.0% of his passes last week for 8.04 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions which is remarkable but obviously his defense let him down and things will only get tougher. Denver's pass defense was supposed to suffer this season with the loss of John Lynch at safety but the Chargers held Oakland to a 65.4% pass completion ratio for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. They generated some very good pressure off the point of attack and that gave them two sacks to start the year. As was the case many times last season the defense failed to come up with multiple turnovers in that game but that should come with time. I mean the Broncos did force 3 fumbles in their win over the Raiders but they managed to recover only 1 of those. The Chargers lacked the third down prowess needed to win big games as they completed only 33.3% of the time on third downs. The way the Denver defense works is that they don't mind giving up some big yardage on second down as long as their defense has a shot on third down because the Broncos allowed Oakland to convert only 16.7% of their third down chances last week and they allowed them to score touchdowns in 2 of their 3 trips to the RedZone. Having said that, San Diego managed to scored TD's in only 50% of their RedZone trips last week which could be a problem in a high intensity game like this. All in all I would normally take the Chargers knowing they have dominated Denver on the road in the past. However, the Broncos have a new swagger to them this season with some new leaders on the defensive side of things and some serious defensive momentum after last week. San Diego will start the season 0-2 SU and ATS.

The Denver Broncos actually surprised themselves and they surprised a very good part of the betting world last week when they walked into Oakland and completely demolished the team that spent the most money of all NFL teams in the off-season to bolster their lineup. Both teams were loaded with youngsters drafted over the course of the last few seasons and this was a battle that somewhat resembled what could have been an NCAA Football All-Star Game from the last three of four seasons. Well I don't know about you guys but that huge win has me convinced that Denver will probably be back amongst the top teams in the AFC (after a few years absence and not since Champ Bailey made that play in the playoffs against New England where he got drilled on his INT return at the one yard line). This is a very healthy bunch (something that was a problem the last few seasons) and they look to have some weapons on both sides of the ball. Denver was a +1 the last time these two teams met here and they lost that game 41-3. What I have to remind you guys is that in that game, Travis Henry was the RB (there was no Andre Hall and no Selvin Young) and there was no Darrell Jackson or Eddie Royal (who emerged as a potential superstar with his performance last week). Add Brandon Marshall to the mix and this offense is 100% different from the one that got killed by San Diego just one year ago. The Broncos come into this game off that impressive 41 points performance against the lowly Raiders, a game that saw them get 441 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.5 yards per play. The Chargers defense did not look all that great last week as they did allow 26 points to the Panthers and they allowed 388 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play in that game. On the ground, the Broncos were once again very effective in true Mike Shanahan fashion as they rushed for 142.0 total yards on 4.2 yards per carry. I see this being a big problem for the Shawn Merriman-less defense that allowed 142 rushing yards of their own last week for a whopping 4.9 yards per carry. Denver can dominate on the ground in this game and make the secondary step up a little bit and cheat. That's when QB Jay Cutler can use his outstanding passing abilities to find guys deep and put the Chargers away for good. Cutler completed 66.7% of his passes against Oakland for a crazy 12.5 yards per pass attempt (highest in the NFL by far right now and looks like college), 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions with a QB Rating of 137.3. I really don't think this Chargers defense can do much if they can't get some Merriman pressure up front. They allowed Carolina to complete 56.1% of their passes on 6.0 yards per pass attempt which is not bad. Having said that, the Denver offensive line is solid like a rock, they did not allow a single sack against last week and I expect this bunch to give Cutler the protection he needs when he decided to drop back and pass. The Chargers had no interceptions and only one sack in their opener which shows a defense lacking their leader. I was very impressed with Cutler on third downs as he completed 50% of his third down chances in the opening game which could be a problem for a San Diego defense that allowed 33.3% of third downs to be converted last week and that allowed Carolina to score touchdowns in 25% of their trips to the RedZone. That's actually pretty good but the Broncos scored TD's in 75% of their trips to the RedZone and I think this could be the turning point in this game. Neither team takes many penalties and both coaches know how important that is when it comes to winning this game. As much as some people think San Diego is going to come out here and do what they did the last two times they visited Mile High, that's just not going to happen because Denver is much improved on both sides of the ball and losing this game is not an option. I love the way they matchup against this Chargers defense and I think we see some big time points from Cutler and his crew here. One of the best young teams in the NFL.

You can call the streak over. Denver has been bullied and pushed around by the Chargers for quite some time now but I am calling for that to come to and end in this game as Denver goes back to the way things were when losing to the Chargers at home was not an option. Ironically the last two times Denver beat San Diego at home in this series was the last two times the teams met in the month of September and I think Denver really has an edge with no Merriman in the lineup and with a banged up Cromartie trying to keep up with the pace of play. Both teams faced weak opponents in their opening games and only one of these two teams managed to escape and look good doing it. San Diego hasn't had the time needed to recover from a loss like last weeks against the Panthers and mentally I just don't see them being ready for this type of atmosphere. Sure the Chargers won big the last two times they came here but in those games there was a Merriman and in those games there was no Selvin Young, no Andre Hall, no Eddie Royal, no Darrel Jackson. San Diego has always been a good team to back following a loss having covered 19 of their last 27 after losing the week before (Denver is the complete opposite which is why they have lacked consistency over the years). Denver is very tough to beat at home and my feeling here is that the Broncos want to show that they are for real. I like the way they matchup on both sides of the ball and this is my PLAY OF THE WEEK.

Trend of the Game: The Favorite is 5-2-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.


Denver 31, San Diego 17





Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (5 Units)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are not a team I like to bet on week in and week out. I have to however say that they have been very kind to me over the last few seasons and they have brought me some big wins over the years. I know it's still early in the season to get excited about a team but the Steelers got off to the quick start in their home opener, some they have now made a habit of doing the last few season and I look for them continue that against a hated team from Cleveland. The 34-7 win over Cleveland in the season opener 2007 was big and although the game was not on primetime TV it sent the message that these two teams are not even close to matching up. The Steelers didn't look all that great in either of their two pre-season games played on the road but the key point for me in this game is that if Pittsburgh wants to look like a Super Bowl contender they have to play like a Super Bowl contender. The fact that Dallas (another Super Bowl contender) walked into Cleveland last week and completely demolished this Browns defense will be something the Steelers have mind in what are usually very close AFC North Division games. In any other circumstance I would be on the Browns but the Steelers want to show that they can do the same as Dallas did last week. Pittsburgh comes into this game off that very impressive 38-17 win over the Houston Texans, a game that saw them amass only 305.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play and a ton of help from their defense. The Browns defense was a no-show last week against the Cowboys as they allowed a whopping 28 points (should have been a lot more) and they allowed those points on a crazy 487.0 total yards of offense and a whopping 7.7 yards per play. You give the Steelers that kind of room and they are going to burn you big time. On the ground, RB Willie Parker is ready to go as he led his team to 183.0 rushing yards last week on 4.7 yards per carry which should make this an easy game for these guys against a defense that allowed 167.0 rushing yards last week on 5.4 yards per carry. All the Steelers really need to do is run run and run some more to set big plays up in the air. QB Ben Roethsliberger completed 92.9% of his passes last week (unheard of really) for 9.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 147.0 to start the season. WOW! With that kind of passing game and a running game to lead the way, the Steelers should have no problems picking apart a Browns defense that allowed Tony Romo to complete 75% of his passes last week for 10.0 yards per pass attempt and no sacks. They did grab an interception in that game but it was too little too late for the Browns and that was the only turnover they were able to force all game. Big Ben was sacked twice in the opener but the Browns don't have as good a defensive line and pass rush as Houston and I just don't see how the Browns are going to get enough pressure on him to force him into his classic mid-season mistakes. Pittsburgh did fumble the ball three times last week, losing only one of them, but that won't be a concern tonight as the Browns once again lack aggression on the defensive side of things and that will cost them. The Steelers were an outstanding 60% on third down conversions in their opener which should further enhance their chances to win this game as the Browns allowed Dallas to convert a whopping 72.7% of the time on third down last week. I also want to point out that the Steelers managed to score a touchdown in each of their trips to the RedZone in their season opener and that's once again bad news for a defense that allowed the Cowboys to score touchdowns in 60% of their RedZone trips last week. All-in-all there are just too many weapons on the field for Pittsburgh and this is the same kind of matchup this week for the Browns defense as it was last week. The Steelers want to make the same statement Dallas did last week and that should come at the expense of this weak defense.

The Cleveland Browns were supposed to be one of the darkhorse teams contending not only to grab an AFC Wild Card once again this season but to maybe contest for the Division Title and shock the NFL World. My only problem with that is that we keep hearing the same predictions over and over again and the results are almost always the same. Despite winning the games they were supposed to win at the end of last season, the Browns went to Cincinnati and had their playoff hopes crushed by the Bengals, making that another season where they fail to reach the post-season. The schedule makers did not do this team any favors this season making them open the year with games against two potential Super Bowl bound teams like Dallas and Pittsburgh but you take what you get and you do what you do. With two huge road games coming against Baltimore and Cincinnati, something tells me once again that this team is going to have all sorts of problems getting off to a good start. The perception in Cleveland is that the Browns are going to make a game of this tonight because 'there is no way we can look the same two weeks in a row at home'. Well those who thought the Browns were good last season must have missed the fact that they had one of the most vanilla home schedules (overall NFL schedules for that matter too with games against SF, OAK, BUF, SEA and others). Cleveland comes into this game off a 10 points performance in that blowout loss against the Cowboys. In that game they managed to get only 205.0 total yards of offense on 4.9 yards per play and I just don't see that being effective enough for another 10 points against a Steelers defense that has always been tough. Sure the boys in black and yellow allowed 17 points last week but more importantly they allowed only 234.0 total yards of offense on 4.4 yards per play in that game which means the Browns are in deep trouble. On the ground, RB Jamal Lewis ran pretty well last week but it's tough to run the ball when you are down by so much against a good passing attack like Dallas so the Browns managed 91 rushing yards in that game for 5.1 yards per carry. They might have a bit of success running the ball in this game as well because the Steelers allowed 75.0 rushing yards last game on 3.8 yards per carry. However the problem remains the same and that is the fact that you can't really run the ball playing from behind. In the air, QB Derek Anderson completed only 45.9% of his passes last week for 4.8 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass, 0 interceptions and a QB Rating of 74.0 to start the season. Anderson was sacked only once in that game and if he thought the pressure was tough then, wait until he sees what he has coming his way in this game against a defense that had 5 sacks last week. The Steelers allowed Houston to complete 75.8% of their passes but a lot of those came in garbage time and a lot of those came with the game out of hand. I look a lot more at the 4.8 yards per pass attempt they allowed instead because it's a better indication of how much contain this team can actually play. The Steelers brought so much pressure last week that they had 2 interceptions to go along with their 5 sacks and I don't see why this defense wouldn't do the exact same in the game tonight. Cleveland was lucky not to turn the ball over more against Dallas last week as they fumbled two times but recovered both of those fumbles and avoided further damage. Recovering fumbles is not all that easy against Pittsburgh because of their general toughness and aggressiveness on defense. The Steelers allowed Houston to convert only 30.0% of their third down chances last week while Cleveland looked horrendous on third downs converting only 33.3% of the time. I am a huge fan of the special teams of the Steelers because they are tough on punt returns and they bring a lot of energy to the game. I think the matchup against Lewis and Anderson is perfect here because as much as Jamal Lewis can have a big day and run for big yardage at times, the Steelers defense is going to force enough turnovers to kill some big drive by Cleveland and setup the offense for yet another score. I don't think it will be a blowout like last season but I still think Pittsburgh can do some big time damage against a confused team that took 9 penalties last week against Dallas. WR's Joe Jurevicius and Donte Stallworth are both out again this week and the Browns are going to struggle to do anything right.

This has VEGAS TRAP written all over it. This is probably a very smart spot to fade the public (I see almost 70% of the public is on the Steelers in this game) and probably a good idea to go with Cleveland to keep it close. Having said that, the public is probably going to get slaughtered on a few afternoon plays and this is the gift of the night from Vegas to get back into the swing of things. I just don't have any reason to take Cleveland in this game which is why I'm sticking to instinctive guns and taking the better team. Pittsburgh walked in here and won 34-7 last season and I just don't see how either team has changed since and why anything would be different this time around. Sounds too easy doesn't it? What's actually incredible is that Cleveland has gone on an ATS tear the last season and a half going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. That once again makes them a very good value play here tonight. However, Pittsburgh has always been a team you want to back in inter-Division play as they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against teams from the AFC North and they have completely dominated this series over the span of the last three or four years. Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams and both the favorite and road teams have really dominated. Cleveland has not beat the Steelers since October 5, 2003 and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Winning on the road is not easy but the Steelers get it done here.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.


Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 13