USC-Raiders, What Would The Spread Be?

[daggerkobe]

I love how when donks realize they are making a ridiculous argument they fall back on the tried and true: you don't post picks.

Those who can't, teach.

[daggerkobe]

That's exactly what I mean when I say you have no idea how advantage gambling works. It's about exploiting market inefficiencies not "picking winners". It's senseless to have a conversation with someone who doesn't even comprehend these basic concepts.

Since you're such an astute linesmaker..... what will the line be for Florida - LSU game? (assuming they win both their games)

[daggerkobe]

So to sum up your argument dagger, let me know if I am missing something.

1. There are multiple first round picks on the roster of the USC Trojans.

2. Oakland has rookies from UCONN, San Diego St, and Buffalo.

Reread the entire thread.

[durito]

Since you're such an astute linesmaker..... what will the line be for Florida - LSU game? (assuming they win both their games)

You really don't understand even the basics of gambling do you?

[daggerkobe]

Do u even gamble? How do you withdraw $5k a day when you can't even pick a single winner? Do people just donate money for all the "sharp" advice you give em????

[durito]

Do u even gamble? How do you withdraw $5k a day when you can't even pick a single winner? Do people just donate money for all the "sharp" advice you give em????

No matter how many stories you completely fabricate about me, none of them will be true.

As previously stated, I don't withdrawal more than a hand full of times a year.

I don't "pick winners" either.

[daggerkobe]

Yeah, keep withdrawing $5k a day without picking winners.

[durito]

The word you are looking for is withdrawal.

I don't know where you get this $5,000 or daily idea from. I can bump the last thread where you were made to look like an idiot so you responded by fabricating stories about me if you like.

[daggerkobe]

Yeah, keep playing those teasers and prop bets. That's what all the "sharps" are doing in the NFL.

[daggerkobe]

$5k a day..... playing teasers and props.

Now that's SHARP!

[durito]

Yeah, keep playing those teasers and prop bets. That's what all the "sharps" are doing in the NFL.

Keep digging.

[daggerkobe]

[BuddyBear]

DaggerKobe realized somewhere between page 3 and 4 of this thread that he was a complete idiot. Rather than admit that he was completely wrong, he's decided to continue to defend his ridiculous belief that USC would beat an NFL team by 2 TDs and put up 42 points on them. In turn, he's been forced to insult posters and rely on a set of arguments that are logically weak and inconsistent.

[durito]

Let's see,

Justin:

If you're serious about making money in the NFL, don't even bother betting sides. Stick to teasers which have a nice market size. Props are a great place also.

or DaggerKobe

[daggerkobe]

So all this durito guy does is steal other people's advice and pass em off as his own "sharp" advice?

Not a sharp at all, just a plagiarizer.

[daggerkobe]

No. The guy who was bagging groceries before his stint with the Rams. The guy who "wasn't good enough to receive a scholarship from a big school". The guy who competed against those notorious USC, All-American, first round draft pick, Heisman trophy winners and beat them out for a starting QB position in the NFL.

Being benched over a 2 time NFL MVP & SB MVP.... wow, that must be the most embarrassing thing ever for an NFL QB. He should quit now and go bag groceries somewhere.

[smitch124]

There is some history to this, College All-Stars did play against NFL from 1934-76. I'm not sure how it would apply to this discussion but here are the results:

The all-time results of the College Football All-Star game. The pros finished with a record of 31-9-2. All-stars victories and ties are listed in bold. 1934 Chicago Bears 0, All-Stars 0
1935 Chicago Bears 5, All-Stars 0
1936 Detroit Lions 7, All-Stars 7
1937 All-Stars 6, Green Bay Packers 0
1938 All-Stars 28, Washington Redskins 16
1939 New York Giants 9, All-Stars 0
1940 Green Bay Packers 45, All-Stars 28
1941 Chicago Bears 37, All-Stars 13
1942 Chicago Bears 21, All-Stars 0
1943 All-Stars 27, Washington Redskins 7
1944 Chicago Bears 24, All-Stars 21
1945 Green Bay Packers 19, All-Stars 7
1946 All-Stars 16, Los Angeles Rams 0
1947 All-Stars 16, Chicago Bears 0
1948 Chicago Cardinals 28, All-Stars 0
1949 Philadelphia Eagles 38, All-Stars 0
1950 All-Stars 17, Philadelphia Eagles 7
1951 Cleveland Browns 33, All-Stars 0
1952 Los Angeles Rams 10, All-Stars 7
1953 Detroit Lions 24, All-Stars 10
1954 Detroit Lions 31, All-Stars 6
1955 All-Stars 30, Cleveland Browns 27
1956 Cleveland Browns 26, All-Stars 0
1957 New York Giants 22, All-Stars 12
1958 All-Stars 35, Detroit Lions 19
1959 Baltimore Colts 29, All-Stars 0
1960 Baltimore Colts 32, All-Stars 7
1961 Philadelphia Eagles 28, All-Stars 14
1962 Green Bay Packers 42, All-Stars 20
1963 All-Stars 20, Green Bay Packers 17
1964 Chicago Bears 28, All-Stars 17
1965 Cleveland Browns 24, All-Stars 16
1966 Green Bay Packers 38, All-Stars 0
1967 Green Bay Packers 27, All-Stars 0
1968 Green Bay Packers 34, All-Stars 17
1969 New York Jets 26, All-Stars 24
1970 Kansas City Chiefs 24, All-Stars 3
1971 Baltimore Colts 24, All-Stars 17
1972 Dallas Cowboys 20, All-Stars 7
1973 Miami Dolphins 14, All-Stars 3
1974 No Game (NFLPA Strike)
1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 21, All-Stars 14
1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 24, All-Stars 0

[daggerkobe]

So tell us, what physical training do these players receive that turns them from non All-Americans that weren't even good enough to receive scholarships to big schools but turns them in to great pro players?

What, no answer Buddycubby?

You'd think if this secretive "training" is all that's required to turn shitty college players in to an all-pros, then all the college teams would be doing it in their off seasons so they'd win national championships.

[daggerkobe]

There is some history to this, College All-Stars did play against NFL from 1934-76. I'm not sure how it would apply to this discussion but here are the results:

The all-time results of the College Football All-Star game. The pros finished with a record of 31-9-2. All-stars victories and ties are listed in bold. 1934 Chicago Bears 0, All-Stars 0
1935 Chicago Bears 5, All-Stars 0
1936 Detroit Lions 7, All-Stars 7
1937 All-Stars 6, Green Bay Packers 0
1938 All-Stars 28, Washington Redskins 16
1939 New York Giants 9, All-Stars 0
1940 Green Bay Packers 45, All-Stars 28
1941 Chicago Bears 37, All-Stars 13
1942 Chicago Bears 21, All-Stars 0
1943 All-Stars 27, Washington Redskins 7
1944 Chicago Bears 24, All-Stars 21
1945 Green Bay Packers 19, All-Stars 7
1946 All-Stars 16, Los Angeles Rams 0
1947 All-Stars 16, Chicago Bears 0
1948 Chicago Cardinals 28, All-Stars 0
1949 Philadelphia Eagles 38, All-Stars 0
1950 All-Stars 17, Philadelphia Eagles 7
1951 Cleveland Browns 33, All-Stars 0
1952 Los Angeles Rams 10, All-Stars 7
1953 Detroit Lions 24, All-Stars 10
1954 Detroit Lions 31, All-Stars 6
1955 All-Stars 30, Cleveland Browns 27
1956 Cleveland Browns 26, All-Stars 0
1957 New York Giants 22, All-Stars 12
1958 All-Stars 35, Detroit Lions 19
1959 Baltimore Colts 29, All-Stars 0
1960 Baltimore Colts 32, All-Stars 7
1961 Philadelphia Eagles 28, All-Stars 14
1962 Green Bay Packers 42, All-Stars 20
1963 All-Stars 20, Green Bay Packers 17
1964 Chicago Bears 28, All-Stars 17
1965 Cleveland Browns 24, All-Stars 16
1966 Green Bay Packers 38, All-Stars 0
1967 Green Bay Packers 27, All-Stars 0
1968 Green Bay Packers 34, All-Stars 17
1969 New York Jets 26, All-Stars 24
1970 Kansas City Chiefs 24, All-Stars 3
1971 Baltimore Colts 24, All-Stars 17
1972 Dallas Cowboys 20, All-Stars 7
1973 Miami Dolphins 14, All-Stars 3
1974 No Game (NFLPA Strike)
1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 21, All-Stars 14
1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 24, All-Stars 0

You've just ruined the day for a few of these nutjobs.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Since you're such an astute linesmaker..... what will the line be for Florida - LSU game? (assuming they win both their games)

Haha. You expect me to set an opener for a game four weeks away, without any scores or stats for those games in between, with very little season data when I just started using my NCAAF model for the season last week so I could accumulate relevant data to determine a more accurate probability distribution? Fine. With all of those SIGNIFICANT variables that will change the opener, I have Florida as a 4.5 point favorite. What that will prove is nothing, even if my current line coincides with the opener...

[daggerkobe]

I knew it.... a cop out.

[daggerkobe]

Haha. You expect me to set an opener for a game four weeks away, without any scores or stats for those games in between, with very little season data when I just started using my NCAAF model for the season last week so I could accumulate relevant data to determine a more accurate probability distribution? Fine. With all of those SIGNIFICANT variables that will change the opener, I have Florida as a 4.5 point favorite. What that will prove is nothing, even if my current line coincides with the opener...

So first you posted FL -3 and 5 min later it's now -4.5.

How come?

[Cloak & Dagger]

Do u even gamble? How do you withdraw $5k a day when you can't even pick a single winner? Do people just donate money for all the "sharp" advice you give em????

[Cloak & Dagger]

IMO I think USC could hang around in a game vs the Raiders...now winning the game...again possible...but highly unlikely

you might ask why?

because on any given day a team could lose or have a bad game

of course skill wise....the professional towers over the youngsters

cmon....they're college kids

but the raiders are BAD

KC is even WORSE


USC operates like a NFL team with a NFL coach

no blowout by 50 as some suggested

[MonkeyF0cker]

You've just ruined the day for a few of these nutjobs.

Uhh. Even using those games as statistically relevant (as they are not since the game has changed quite a bit since the 1930's), the fair market line would be Pro's -8 (-107).

[smitch124]

This is kinda interesting actually, it seems that Vince Lombardi lost to college All-Stars with one of his championship teams and it was a loss that bothered him for a long time. If you'll notice his team went on to win the next games quite handily, so motivation, as one would expect is a big factor:

http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=1144&CID=563257

[daggerkobe]

Uhh. Even using those games as statistically relevant (as they are not since the game has changed quite a bit since the 1930's), the fair market line would be Pro's -8 (-107).

1943 All-Stars 27, Washington Redskins 7
1946 All-Stars 16, Los Angeles Rams 0
1947 All-Stars 16, Chicago Bears 0
1950 All-Stars 17, Philadelphia Eagles 7
1955 All-Stars 30, Cleveland Browns 27
1958 All-Stars 35, Detroit Lions 19
1963 All-Stars 20, Green Bay Packers 17

[smitch124]

In the years that these games were played, one would have to point out that college football was bigger and more popular than pro football. Many of the pro players had to get jobs in the off season. But I still thought it was intersting since this is the only example we have of the games actually being played.

[daggerkobe]

IMO I think USC could hang around in a game vs the Raiders...now winning the game...again possible...but highly unlikely

you might ask why?

because on any given day a team could lose or have a bad game

of course skill wise....the professional towers over the youngsters

cmon....they're college kids

but the raiders are BAD

KC is even WORSE


USC operates like a NFL team with a NFL coach

no blowout by 50 as some suggested

Wow, who would've guessed cloak would make more sense than the "sharps" of the forum.

USC is basically a team of all-stars especially when they are #1 in recruiting 4 of the past 6 seasons and regularly produce Heisman winners, All-Americans and 1st rd draft picks.

And if anyone thinks Lane Kiffin is a better coach than Pete Carroll, they need their heads examined.

[Cloak & Dagger]

In the years that these games were played, one would have to point out that college football was bigger and more popular than pro football. Many of the pro players had to get jobs in the off season. But I still thought it was intersting since this is the only example we have of the games actually being played.

oh ya

the players are much better now...faster...stronger

[MonkeyF0cker]

So first you posted FL -3 and 5 min later it's now -4.5.

How come?

Didn't add betting trends into the point spread originally.

[Cloak & Dagger]

Wow, who would've guessed cloak would make more sense than the "sharps" of the forum.

USC is basically a team of all-stars especially when they are #1 in recruiting 4 of the past 6 seasons and regularly produce Heisman winners, All-Americans and 1st rd draft picks.

And if anyone thinks Lane Kiffin is a better coach than Pete Carroll, they need their heads examined.

LMFAO

Pete Carroll would outcoach Kiffin ANY day of the week

shit...he could make the Raiders better if he was the coach

[durito]

So all this durito guy does is steal other people's advice and pass em off as his own "sharp" advice?

Not a sharp at all, just a plagiarizer.

When I say 2+3 =5 I'm perhaps borrowing from whomever invented addition. I did not plagiarize.

When I quote Justin, I am not plagiarizing. I quoted Justin to show a respected sbr member with the same opinion (it's more fact than opinion, but you will never get that).

You, once again, upon realizing how wrong you are, attacked the source. Are you sure you don't work for the republicans?

[daggerkobe]

Hmmm, is that why you made no mention of him when you passed it off as your own in another thread?

You also plagiarized SBR_John once.

Plagiarizer.

[durito]

Hmmm, is that why you made no mention of him when you passed it off as your own in another thread?

You also plagiarized SBR_John once.

Plagiarizer.

Quoting someone is not plagiarizing. Have you finished middle school?