BULLS line way too high

PickWinnerAllDay · 02-20-12, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

this bulls team is 1-5 ats vs top 11 opponents this season

they haven't played a decent team since feb 1 when the 76ers whipped them by 16, and yet they're still a 10 1/2 point favorite against a good hawks team with rose's health still in question?

also the bulls are 1-4 in matinees

They didn't have Deng or Rose or both in almost all of those 6 match ups... Just something to remember.

Bcatswin · 02-20-12, 02:47 PM

Seems strange.

PickWinnerAllDay · 02-20-12, 02:47 PM

If Rose isn't playing, take the 10.5, but I'd stay the hell away if Rose is in the lineup. When healthy they can beat anyone except Miami by 30.

Dad · 02-20-12, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

this bulls team is 1-5 ats vs top 11 opponents this season

they haven't played a decent team since feb 1 when the 76ers whipped them by 16, and yet they're still a 10 1/2 point favorite against a good hawks team with rose's health still in question?

also the bulls are 1-4 in matinees

I agree. I'm on Atlanta +10.5.

yisman · 02-20-12, 02:51 PM

I agree, but the line continues to move up.

It's now 11.

yisman · 02-20-12, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

If Rose isn't playing, take the 10.5, but I'd stay the hell away if Rose is in the lineup. When healthy they can beat anyone except Miami by 30.

This post doesn't help.

if news came out that Rose isn't playing, the line would drop by several points.

You can't take +10.5 if you knew Rose wasn't playing.

PickWinnerAllDay · 02-20-12, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by yisman

This post doesn't help.

if news came out that Rose isn't playing, the line would drop by several points.

You can't take +10.5 if you knew Rose wasn't playing.

Well, he's cleared to play by the team doctor so its probably a moot point, he'll be out there.

RedSox88 · 02-20-12, 02:55 PM

i think he meant if theres a chance rose isnt playing

Ghenghis Kahn · 02-20-12, 02:57 PM

atl struggling... rose probably back... hence, take atl +10.5

jjgold · 02-20-12, 02:57 PM

We spanked Atl

Span me men if it loses

yisman · 02-20-12, 02:58 PM

Books would never have posted that line if they weren't confident Rose was playing anyway.

No way they're opening themselves up to people grabbing 10.5 and then buying it back at 7 or whatever.

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 02:59 PM

so if it loses i lose money AND have to touch jj's butt?

Ghenghis Kahn · 02-20-12, 03:01 PM

hmmmm... now it's 11. shoulda waited a little before i bet.

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 03:03 PM

and i'm certainly not saying the bulls don't have a good chance of winning by 20

atlanta is a team that seems to give up at times

but no matter how the game turns out, this line is too high

d2bets · 02-20-12, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

and i'm certainly not saying the bulls don't have a good chance of winning by 20

atlanta is a team that seems to give up at times

but no matter how the game turns out, this line is too high

Wow, so you can't possibly be wrong?

DudleyDawson · 02-20-12, 03:05 PM

I think ATL can win. gotta assume with the Bulls only having one more game after today before the all star break that they're gonna sit rose out. I got on the Hawks at +10.5. line moves are seeming to mean less and less lately in the nba.

Easy-Rider 66 · 02-20-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

and i'm certainly not saying the bulls don't have a good chance of winning by 20

atlanta is a team that seems to give up at times

but no matter how the game turns out, this line is too high

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Wow, so you can't possibly be wrong?

just saying i can see the bulls winning by 20 as a distinct possibility.

but my money is on the other side because i think 60% of the time atlanta keeps it within 10 or wins

hopefully you're not just picking on me because our side bet has swung in my favor

PickWinnerAllDay · 02-20-12, 03:10 PM

milwaukee mike maybe you're biased against chicago teams. lol

statnerds · 02-20-12, 03:12 PM

let me go on record as saying

1. the nba blows

2. i never bet the nba

3. going to SBR book now to drop 10% of my points on the Bulls.

4. not my wallet points, my sportsbook points

5. much luck on this

Ghenghis Kahn · 02-20-12, 03:13 PM

only thing that worries me is bodog squares are pounding atl...

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by PickWinnerAllDay

milwaukee mike maybe you're biased against chicago teams. lol

i have nothing against the bulls in fact i probably dislike the hawks at least as much for josh smith's comments about milwaukee and how they knocked the bucks out of the playoffs 2 years ago.

but as i have said a million times EVERYONE IS BIASED FOR OR AGAINST EVERY TEAM. name any game on the board and i bet you have an emotional lean one way or another.

d2bets · 02-20-12, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

just saying i can see the bulls winning by 20 as a distinct possibility.

but my money is on the other side because i think 60% of the time atlanta keeps it within 10 or wins

hopefully you're not just picking on me because our side bet has swung in my favor

Nope, I'll happily keep the sidebet. And I'm not saying Atl is wrong here, but you seem awfully sure of yourself. I guess that's good. I dunno. Bulls get mad after losses. Rose is going to play and he won't play halfway. I suspect Bulls get out to big lead. You might do better at HT. 10.5 is a bit much, but I'd probably lay 9. My guess is the finish is very close to the number.

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Nope, I'll happily keep the sidebet. And I'm not saying Atl is wrong here, but you seem awfully sure of yourself. I guess that's good. I dunno. Bulls get mad after losses. Rose is going to play and he won't play halfway. I suspect Bulls get out to big lead. You might do better at HT. 10.5 is a bit much, but I'd probably lay 9. My guess is the finish is very close to the number.

i'm not even close to sure of myself that's why i hedged and said the bulls could win in a blowout. but i'm awfully sure that the line is inflated, daytime tv game with a public team like the bulls, i wouldn't expect any different.

i think your arguments are sound and i think 7 would be a fair line instead of 10.5-11

Living The Dream · 02-20-12, 03:25 PM

I am on the Bulls giving the points. Rose has been medically cleared to play, but even if he doesn't, Hawks are going to get smoked.

TailMe · 02-20-12, 03:26 PM

The better play IMO, is the under. I don't see either team getting into the 90's.

If a team does get into the 90's it will be the Bulls but, they will hold the Hawks to below 80.

I'd take under 181.5 in this one. BOL.

5mike5 · 02-20-12, 03:30 PM

Under 182.5 is the play IMO(got it this morning)

GL

CrimsonQueen · 02-20-12, 03:35 PM

Lines not too high, in fact the reverse line movement agrees with my model... got Bulls by 11.92. It's just a number, take it for what it's worth.

Also... RLM... only 43% on Bulls yet it went up to 11 from 10.5... Again... take it for what it's worth, I think the line is pretty correct. Won't be playing either side myself.

Good luck!

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by CrimsonQueen

Lines not too high, in fact the reverse line movement agrees with my model... got Bulls by 11.92. It's just a number, take it for what it's worth.

Also... RLM... only 43% on Bulls yet it went up to 11 from 10.5... Again... take it for what it's worth, I think the line is pretty correct. Won't be playing either side myself.

Good luck!

i have a feeling your model takes into account the huge blowout wins the bulls have had over garbage teams. only one win of over 10 points vs a quality team

CrimsonQueen · 02-20-12, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

i have a feeling your model takes into account the huge blowout wins the bulls have had over garbage teams. only one win of over 10 points vs a quality team

Yeah, it takes every point into account, so it probably does overstate their ability, but it also takes every player on their teams ability for the last three years. So.... Just saying I don't think it's "way too high" as the title of the thread stated

Good luck either way!

zacharyj53 · 02-20-12, 03:58 PM

I like the Bulls to start off hot with Rose return to the lineup. Other than that I got 0 feel for the game.

young chad · 02-20-12, 04:02 PM

I can realistically see the Bulls winning by maybe 7-9 points at the most...but every time I think that, they surprise me...ATL is SUCH a hit or miss team..they're by no means "elite" but they're also far from bums...that's what makes this such a tough play...you really don't know WHICH atl team you're going to get...they can either play like the Heat one night..or the Wizards..smh

PAULYPOKER · 02-20-12, 04:08 PM

If the Hawks cover, the books will be buried on this game............

food for thought...........

milwaukee mike · 02-20-12, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

If the Hawks cover, the books will be buried on this game............

food for thought...........

then let's bury the fukkers!!

the books don't always win you know