Top 5 reasons why Black Caviar WILL be exposed this weekend...

[ACoochy]

Going for her 19th win in a row before going over to europe to look for a worthy challenge. She in all probability will win but there are alot of factors weighing against her come saturday. If your ever gonna lay this horse then here's the reasons why:

1. Yet to be raced 2 weeks in a row. This will be her 1st 7 day backup

2. Change of distance (from 1400m to 1000m) off short delay between races generally unsettles horses

3. Hay List is the only horse to run black caviar to within a length

4. Hay List is a specialist 1000 metre bolter

5. Racing against a fresher field of horses

Dont get me wrong, this horse is a freak and will in all probability win by a number of lengths but a set of circumstances exist here that justify -800 ($1.14) lay bet imo. Discussion and comments welcome...GL

[Jaug]

This caviar horse is gonna lose sooner rather than later. Saw that last race. Not impressed.

[jjgold]

When is the race??

[ACoochy]

Coach, around 12:30amEST Saturday i believe...

[Gee]

I personally thought there were more question marks last week; Black Caviar passed that test in a canter.

The only difference is the Hay List factor; the only horse to have tested her. I know the connections of Hay List were seriously thinking about dodging BC in this race, so it gives an indication about where they think Hay List may really be at in relation to BC, despite what is being said now.

I think $1.10 is a fair price and good luck if you bet on it. I'll just enjoy watching this one. What do you think I'll get on an exacta?? (BC-HY) $1.60? Quinella - $1.30? I suspect even lower. There will be practically nothing in the pool for much else.

[ACoochy]

I personally thought there were more question marks last week; Black Caviar passed that test in a canter. The only difference is the Hay List factor; the only horse to have tested her. I know the connections of Hay List were seriously thinking about dodging BC in this race, so it gives an indication about where they think Hay List may really be at in relation to BC, despite what is being said now. I think $1.10 is a fair price and good luck if you bet on it. I'll just enjoy watching this one. What do you think I'll get on an exacta?? (BC-HY) $1.60? Quinella - $1.30? I suspect even lower. There will be practically nothing in the pool for much else.

Gee, understand ur thinking but by the same token hay stacks connections wouldnt have run her if they'd thought she'd have no showing...Id rather risk the lay price here then face losing it all for a measly 10% come barrier time...

Last weeks race odds were shorter at this stage yet from what i understand the exacta paid $2.10....Think we are dreaming of getting anywhere near this close...GL

[Gee]

Gee, understand ur thinking but by the same token hay stacks connections wouldnt have run her if they'd thought she'd have no showing...Id rather risk the lay price here then face losing it all for a measly 10% come barrier time... Last weeks race odds were shorter at this stage yet from what i understand the exacta paid $2.10....Think we are dreaming of getting anywhere near this close...GL

Yeah, I just checked. Last week Quin payed $1.90 and exacta $2.10. Definitely dreaming if we'll get any thing close to that again. Last week was BC v the field. This week is BC/HL v the field. Trifecta will probably pay F-all as well.

I agree the lay bet is better than win bet. Its why I doubt I'll bet this one. Its pretty amazing to watch her run every week and only takes a minute (probably less this week).

[LT Profits]

This caviar horse is gonna lose sooner rather than later. Saw that last race. Not impressed.

Not impressed? She has not been asked to run yet, she could have won by 15 lengths with any urging.

[FourLengthsClear]

Solid write up.

Top rated mare for the last 20-odd years and she should win despite those negatives. She is unbackable in that odds range.

[ACoochy]

LT this horse is something we'll only see once or twice in our lifetimes. Appreciate it before she's retired...

[gregm]

Its amazing, I had never even heard of this horse until I read something in the horse racing press about her being named the worlds best racehorse last year. Sprinters don't always get alot of press and the american horse racing media is a joke anyway, but this horse seems amazing. I feel like I am in a bubble sometimes with horse racing in the states.

It still amazes me the kind of volume that goes on at Happy Valley and what Aussie punters like Alan Woods did at the Hong Kong Jockey club, and the numbers Zelijko Ranogajec makes. It just dwarfs horse racing in the States . I bet Aussie racing is incredible live. Thanks for posting this Acoochy, I am going to let some friends know about this race.

[scratbandit]

Simply amazing what this horse has become. I can't wait until frankel starts his 4 year old campaign.

[ACoochy]

Greggy ur welcome pal. Hope u and ur friends have a good time watching her cruise to another seemingly effortless victory.

Bandit, from my understanding taking on frankel is one of the main reasons her connections are running her in europe. What a salivating match-up that would be

[thezbar]

I played Hay List last night at a juicy 30/1. He ran a great race. But>>>>>

[LT Profits]